Conor147 said:
no i have definitely NOT confused belief with likelihood. as i asserted, belief is dependant on likelihood. when i say "believe 50%" i mean "believe the likelihood is 50%". it was only shorthand and i think you know this and are just trying to throw a red herring. i believe it was actually you that has confused belief with likelihood, as i demonstrated with my hypothetical that is both valid and sound and as of yet unrefuted.
which of my premises were false and/or how was my conclusion not inferred by my premises?
If belief is dependent on likelihood, does that not imply that theists are right? After all, they believe the hardest.
Joking aside, are you just throwing out words about debate at random and hoping for the best? A premise has to be built around something which we both accept as true, and for best effect has to be provably true. The only one you have given so far is that the search for alien life is unresolved. You then follow this by saying "so you are 50% sure that aliens exist?". No. I am 0% sure, because I have no belief. The actual percentage probability of there being intelligent alien life is down to the number of planets with inhabitable atmospheres, and as such our estimate of this probability can be changed by the new evidence found as in the case you give ("here is some evidence that there are thousands of earth-like planets in a tiny part of the observable universe"). My belief may be swayed by this, but even then it will be moved from "I don't believe in intelligent alien life" to "I do believe in intelligent alien life". The only possible intermediary stage would be an internal conflict of whether I believe or not.
Do I therefore believe "the likelihood is 50%"? No. I have no idea what the actual probability of there being alien life out there is, but it probably isn't exactly 50% anyway. If someone were to tell me the probability is exactly 90% and they could prove it, my belief may be swayed by this as I described above. But belief can just as easily be used to defy probability. Anyone who has played Warhammer 40K and uttered the immortal phrase "Anything but a one to pass" can attest to this. In this case, the probability of rolling a one is 1/6, naturally. But you can still believe it will happen. However, in the case of religion this is all a moot point anyway as there is absolutely no way to calculate the probability of a God.
The only way belief could work as a percentage is as a binary system, that is to say 100% being 1 belief (believing something is true) and 0% being 0 belief (having no belief). Even then this is leaving out all possible developments of your personal belief. For example, believing there is a God but he doesn't take the forms given by any religion and as such it is an overly simplistic way to view things.