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Hawki

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I mean, it's kinda weird to admit I can totally see Russia going full Belka, as horrifying as that would be.
You mean we could have Arsenal Birds and space elevators in our future? What's not to like?
 
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Satinavian

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I guess the question for me is: IF Putin wants war with NATO, what the fuck is stopping him? He's all but claimed Russia is at War with the West, yet does nothing directly to NATO. He's apparently blamed NATO nations for his pipeline blowing up and does fucking nothing, despite that being ample casus belli if true. Ukraine keeps taking his precrious "Russia" away by the day and they continue to do this. I don't think he's dumb enough to believe NATO is gonna sit back and watch a nuke go off without doing anything, so if he wants to avoid a war with NATO, a nuke would be a great way to screw that up too.
Oh, he certainly does not want war with NATO. He already knows how his army is loosing against the Ukraine, he knows that NATO fully entering the war would be certain defeat.

But he is still convinced that the West is decadent and full of cowards. He might still believe that NATO would indeed just back off if he were using a nuke. And as that increasingly seems like the only scenario resulting in a win for him, he might go for it.
 

Silvanus

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I appreciate the discussion and fully acknowledge that they're all 100% good reason not to start throwing nuke around.

But attacking Ukraine was a dumb move even when though it would be an easy special operation, and he still did it. Even if it all worked out, he wouldn't have been any richer or any better situated, but he still went ahead with it. I'm just starting to worry he'll act like a spoil kid who's losing monopoly and will flip the board.
If all had gone to plan, Putin and Russia would certainly have been richer.

* Ukraine is the "breadbasket of Europe", and the areas they aimed to control contain huge swathes of arable land.

* Kherson holds well placed Black Sea ports for shipping trade.

* Remember the initial aim of the operation involved swiftly deposing the government and installing a Russian-friendly replacement. That would've meant a new proxy within their sphere of influence, like Belarus or Yanukovych-era Ukraine, with state policy bent to serve and enrich Russia.

* Swift, successful war tends to boost a leader's domestic popularity. See Thatcher with the Falklands. Had this gone to plan and been over in the first few weeks, Putin would've experienced a boost in popularity at home.
 

Thaluikhain

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I'm just starting to worry he'll act like a spoil kid who's losing monopoly and will flip the board.
He can't do that himself, he needs support of lots of people who have stuff to live for. One notes that nuclear devices have not been used since the end of WW2, and lots of people have been in positions where they'd want to flip the table. It's a matter of some concern for various nations to have such weapons, but nobody has been in a rush to get themselves wiped out.

As mentioned, he can do the old trick of deciding that whatever has happened is a win condition. If you squint your brain a bit, annexing land with a false referendum, but losing lots of everything and only being vaguely able to hold it might even count as something like a legit win.
 

Dalisclock

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He can't do that himself, he needs support of lots of people who have stuff to live for. One notes that nuclear devices have not been used since the end of WW2, and lots of people have been in positions where they'd want to flip the table. It's a matter of some concern for various nations to have such weapons, but nobody has been in a rush to get themselves wiped out.

As mentioned, he can do the old trick of deciding that whatever has happened is a win condition. If you squint your brain a bit, annexing land with a false referendum, but losing lots of everything and only being vaguely able to hold it might even count as something like a legit win.
"Mission Acomplished!"

Putin could use an aircraft carrier for the job but their sole Carrier is still being repaired for...*Checks notes* damaged due to a falling 70-ton crane from the floating dry dock PD-50 and a fire that killed two during the refit. The dry dock sank due to a power outage while holding Admiral Kuznetsov.

Jesus Christ Russia, is everything okay over there?
 

Thaluikhain

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"Mission Acomplished!"

Putin could use an aircraft carrier for the job but their sole Carrier is still being repaired for...*Checks notes* damaged due to a falling 70-ton crane from the floating dry dock PD-50 and a fire that killed two during the refit. The dry dock sank due to a power outage while holding Admiral Kuznetsov.

Jesus Christ Russia, is everything okay over there?
Even if they didn't have massive problems with corruption et al, their military is trying to be bigger and more powerful than they have the budget for, which only works short term. Big cutbacks would have allowed them to keep a small but respectable force, but that's generally unpopular with anyone who isn't directly concerned with how well the military functions.
 
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Dalisclock

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Oh, he certainly does not want war with NATO. He already knows how his army is loosing against the Ukraine, he knows that NATO fully entering the war would be certain defeat.

But he is still convinced that the West is decadent and full of cowards. He might still believe that NATO would indeed just back off if he were using a nuke. And as that increasingly seems like the only scenario resulting in a win for him, he might go for it.
One could argue it is cowardly to blow up Russian Ammo dumps and Supply depots from 300 km away. It still hasn't helped Russia any as the HIMARS go ROAR!

I do love the doublethink here "The West is Decadent and cowardly while we are stronk" but also "Ukraine is only holding on winning because the NATO is pulling Ukraines strings behind the scenes".

I'm not even getting into the whole "Russia manly and strong" and "West is effeminate and gay" thing which is fucking hilarious when there's reports that Russian Forces are allegedly retreating so fast the advancing Ukrainians can't catch up, and more substantial reports that Ukraine keeps breaking through the Russian front lines in two seperate areas. Basically 'West Weak but also West murdering us. Does not compute".
 
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Dalisclock

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Even if they didn't have massive problems with corruption et al, their military is trying to be bigger and more powerful than they have the budget for, which only works short term. Big cutbacks would have allowed them to keep a small but respectable force, but that's generally unpopular with anyone who isn't directly concerned with how well the military functions.
Bigger and more powerful then they have the logistics for, but I see what you mean. Apparently a million uniforms are missing. I don't know how reputable that source is though


Gonna be a hard winter coming up but it's okay because putin will be warm in his dacha. Think of Putin and his tiger skin rug when you're freezing in Crimea, I guess.
 
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Silvanus

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Putin has issued a "correction" to the mobilisation order, introducing a deferment for students of private universities and postgraduates of the same.

So... state University students get drafted, but rich kids don't.

Only kids from poor families are worth sending to die, apparently.
 

Dalisclock

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Putin has issued a "correction" to the mobilisation order, introducing a deferment for students of private universities and postgraduates of the same.

So... state University students get drafted, but rich kids don't.

Only kids from poor families are worth sending to die, apparently.
Poor kids don't have oligarch daddies to complain.
 

Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)

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I appreciate the discussion and fully acknowledge that they're all 100% good reason not to start throwing nuke around.

But attacking Ukraine was a dumb move even when though it would be an easy special operation, and he still did it. Even if it all worked out, he wouldn't have been any richer or any better situated, but he still went ahead with it. I'm just starting to worry he'll act like a spoil kid who's losing monopoly and will flip the board.

And I don't necessarily mean nuking the US, say there's a major offensive by Ukraine on crimea or something, maybe Putin will try his luck with a relatively small nuke to stop the advance (either the advance itself, or maybe Kyiv just as a distraction). Or imagine the war drag on and there's a lot of skirmish around the border, maybe he'll feel like its okay to use nuke on his territory to stop an advance.
If Putin's mind things that Russia is overif they can't win the war then he may do it. He said it himself
"Why Do We Need a World if Russia Is Not In It?”-Putin

This quote is utterly terrifying
 
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CM156

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Putin has issued a "correction" to the mobilisation order, introducing a deferment for students of private universities and postgraduates of the same.

So... state University students get drafted, but rich kids don't.

Only kids from poor families are worth sending to die, apparently.
There's a version of "Fortunate Son" on Youtube with Russian lyrics.
Just in case these soldiers need any music when deployed.
 

Hades

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Eventually Putin will expect actual results, and his generals will have two options; admit they've been lying about gains and victories and stealing government funds for their own luxury lifestyles, or just shoot Putin in the head and steal as much money as they can.
Do they have to admit anything though? Them backing Putin, and Putin allowing them to rob the state blind in return was the explicit deal they struck with each other. In general the Putin regime supports stealing government funds.
 

Kwak

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Fuck russia. Jesus.
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“Neighbours constantly heard screams from there. Investigators found a terrible torture chamber in the village,” he said, translated from Ukrainian.
1664999987088.png
Among the discoveries were gas masks, pulled dentures and sex toys. Picture: Serhii Bolvinov

“The police are well aware of the torture of being buried alive and the use of a gas mask with a smouldering rag.

“A dildo and a box with torn dentures were also found in the torture chamber.”

He said investigators were aware of the identity of the victims.

The National Police of Ukraine officers documented the alleged war crimes.


A statement issued online said the Russians had driven the locals out of their homes, settling there themselves.

“The police found another torture chamber in the cellar, where locals were kept in inhumane conditions. People were intimidated, beaten and abused,” it said.

There was also evidence of live burials, according to Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.




 
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SilentPony

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Do they have to admit anything though? Them backing Putin, and Putin allowing them to rob the state blind in return was the explicit deal they struck with each other. In general the Putin regime supports stealing government funds.
Oh it does, but it doesn't support making Putin look like an idiot and lying to him. Putin may have been aware of the generals skimming off the top when it came to funds, I don't think he was aware his entire army was a potemkin army. I think the Generals never believed he would ever try to use the army and thus they never had to build one and now Putin expects all those super soldiers he paid for to come win the war. And the generals are sweating because they used that money for luxury yachts and call-girls.
 

Silvanus

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NATO boots should have been on the ground in March.
Fixed that for you
I don't think so.

There was never any threat to Russian territorial integrity from Ukraine, and Putin has fearmongered and exaggerated it to justify expansionism.

But a threat to Russian territorial integrity from NATO is more credible. When these countries became independent, Western countries did state that they would not be integrated into NATO, because such an event was acknowledged by both sides as a potential threat to Russia. Plenty of Russians see invitations for places like Ukraine and Finland as instances of duplicity or reneging by the US and NATO to withhold membership. And outside of context that seems fair enough. It would be.

...where Russia fails to keep any moral high ground is that they believe that NATO is infringing on Russia's own territorial integrity while simultaneously believing that other surrounding countries do not deserve the territorial integrity that they are themselves entitled to. They believe they are entitled to a higher level of consideration and protection than other sovereign states, and that their own considerations override those of other sovereign states. Their own defensive assurances must be indulged, but everyone else can go fuck themselves.

Which is obviously morally bunk imperialism. The second they started riding roughshod over the territorial integrity of other smaller countries, they abandoned any moral right to whine when NATO backed out of its agreements vis-a-vis Ukrainian and Finnish membership. Those agreements were predicated on Russia not bombing and slaughtering its neighbours-- they do not hold once Russia has chosen to change the international situation through hostile invasion. They illegally invade others = they lose the right to rely on international agreements to defend themselves. Its that simple.

And they cannot possibly object to the wishes of their neighbours to seek collective security when they themselves represent the only reason such security is deemed necessary, by constantly fucking invading.

TLDR: Russia choosing to infringe on the territorial integrity of its neighbours has destroyed any claim to the moral high ground that might have been predicated on its own territorial integrity or past international agreements. They're incapable of understanding that smaller states are legally entitled to the same consideration as them. An imperial hangover from the Russian Empire.
 
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