Ukraine

Ag3ma

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And what is Luka gonna do? Offer the FSB hit team a drink? Write a slightly awkward letter to Vlad "Vova" Putin?
I doubt Luka had anything significant to do with cooking this up at all.

I'm inclined to believe this was hashed out internally by Russia. Belarus presented a sort of solution where Prigozhin/Wagner was offered an out that kept them safe and maybe even useful and able to continue activities. Luka's reward for compliance was to be credited as peacemaker, given a day in the sun and improve his reputation as a statesman, etc.

I don't really believe Lukashenko is an independent leader anymore - Russia propping him up after the protests following the last Belarusian election left him more a puppet of Russia than ever.
 
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Dalisclock

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I don't really believe Lukashenko is an independent leader anymore - Russia propping him up after the protests following the last Belarusian election left him more a puppet of Russia than ever.
Pretty much. It's honestly hard to think of Belarus as anything other then an extension of Russia at this point, or at best a Vassal State.
 

Dalisclock

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Hawki

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Russia: This land is mine.

Ukraine: No, it's mine.

Russia: This land is mined.

Ukraine: This land is mined.

Russia: So you accept the land is mine?

Ukraine: No, we'll clear out the mines, so the land is no longer mined, so it can be mine.

Russia: But it's mine!
 
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Absent

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Russia: This land is mine.

Ukraine: No, it's mine.

Russia: This land is mined.

Ukraine: This land is mined.

Russia: So you accept the land is mine?

Ukraine: No, we'll clear out the mines, so the land is no longer mined, so it can be mine.

Russia: But it's mine!
Yeah, it's worse than that : https://www.icog.es/TyT/index.php/2022/05/the-mineral-resources-of-ukraine/
 

Thaluikhain

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Er...is it in any way a surprise that people are using mines to delay an offensive? I mean, that's been a thing for over a hundred years, and despite some nations deciding against it, was standard doctrine everywhere.
 

Ag3ma

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Er...is it in any way a surprise that people are using mines to delay an offensive? I mean, that's been a thing for over a hundred years, and despite some nations deciding against it, was standard doctrine everywhere.
To be clear, I think all countries still use anti-vehicle landmines. Some may have ceased use of anti-personnel landmines. But then, anti-vehicle landmines are mostly enough of an impedence on their own. Vehicles are still critical to warfare, and nn army that can't readily get its vehicles into the necessary positions is partially stymied.

Ukraine is of course heavily limited in offensive actions by lack of an air force, too. Western military tactics have long been based on assumptions of air support. Soviet doctrine less so (they more worked on the idea of airspace denial), but even still...
 

Thaluikhain

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To be clear, I think all countries still use anti-vehicle landmines. Some may have ceased use of anti-personnel landmines. But then, anti-vehicle landmines are mostly enough of an impedence on their own. Vehicles are still critical to warfare, and nn army that can't readily get its vehicles into the necessary positions is partially stymied.
A quibble, but while nations still might possess and train with anti-vehicle mines, that's not to say they regularly use them. All sorts of strategic and political implications, but that's mostly because of the wars they tend to be fighting at the moment.
 

Ag3ma

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Well fuck, Russia is going to blow up the nuclear power plant.

Well, maybe? The question is whether they plan on blowing it up in a full-on nuclear crisis fashion, or blowing it up in a way where it can be safely neutralised, or just "cosmetic" damage.

I actually don't think they'd cause a nuclear crisis. The Russian regime are certainly cruel enough to poison a large tract of Ukraine, but I also think that stands the risk of a diplomatic disaster - for instance, China is very jealous of its reputation, and I doubt wants to be allied to a state that did such a thing.
 

Thaluikhain

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Yeah, probably usual scare tactics, but then again, given the incompetence show, wouldn't be surprised if someone went horribly wrong.
 

Silvanus

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Russian state media has reported that Prigozhin's home has been raided. The images they've released show weaponry, photographs of severed heads, and enormous numbers of wigs. Meanwhile, Lukashenko states Prigozhin has travelled back to St. Petersburg, so that exile didn't last long.

In addition, Putin has stated (for the first time) that Wagner was "completely financed" by the Russian state, after denying that it existed or had any connection to the Russian state for many years. That includes 86b rubles in direct financing; 110b in insurance payouts; and 80bn for Prigozhin's catering company-- altogether well over 3 billion dollars.
 

Ag3ma

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Russian state media has reported that Prigozhin's home has been raided. The images they've released show weaponry, photographs of severed heads, and enormous numbers of wigs. Meanwhile, Lukashenko states Prigozhin has travelled back to St. Petersburg, so that exile didn't last long.

In addition, Putin has stated (for the first time) that Wagner was "completely financed" by the Russian state, after denying that it existed or had any connection to the Russian state for many years. That includes 86b rubles in direct financing; 110b in insurance payouts; and 80bn for Prigozhin's catering company-- altogether well over 3 billion dollars.
I'm fascinated by the huge number of wigs, considering Prigozhin always seems to be photographed bald.
 
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Absent

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I actually don't think they'd cause a nuclear crisis. The Russian regime are certainly cruel enough to poison a large tract of Ukraine, but I also think that stands the risk of a diplomatic disaster - for instance, China is very jealous of its reputation, and I doubt wants to be allied to a state that did such a thing.
My impression is that everyone desires a nuclear crisis caused by (or "caused by") the enemy.
 
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