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Silvanus

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South Ossetia and Abkhazia have, between them, a population that is around 300,000, or less than half that of Seattle. How would you even tell whether they were "being controlled by Russia" or simply making agreements with Russia that make a lot of sense because Russia is the guarantor of their security against reconquering by Georgia? They have elections. They have small legislative bodies. What is there to put a fig leaf over? Russian citizenship in both of those regions was already very high before the Russo-Georgian war-- looking at the evidence, it's weird that they haven't been annexed if we assume that is what Moscow wants.
That's what you're going with? The population is small so "how can you tell"?

If a population wants to secede or form a cooperative agreement, you know what the route is which would actually demonstrate what they want? Referendum. Some form of actual legal process, with different options presented without violent coercion.

If a neighbouring country just fucking rolls in the tanks, there hasn't been any effort to determine if its their will or not. You're literally just assuming that they wanted to be invaded based on... uhrm... that there are quite a few Russians there, and you think Russians all love Putin.

By the by, if you consider military cooperation/command/incorporation to be "annexation", you might be interested to learn that a part of the agreement which Yanukovych rejected in 2013 (that rejection leading to the Maidan protests) included 7 pages concerning 'military security issues'; by signing the agreement, Ukraine would agree to abide by the military security policies of the European Union. Essentially, Ukraine would become subordinate to NATO or be in violation of the agreement. I guess that means its 'independence' would have been a merely transparent fig leaf according to you. Rejecting this deal of course meant that Yanukovych had to be overthrown. Only a Russian puppet could reject Greek style austerity paired with subordination to NATO.
Abiding by the "military security policies of the EU" doesn't mean joining NATO, a different organisation. The EU is an economic/regulatory grouping which has no army and has no power to compel its members to go to war. Member states' militaries are not "incorporated" or commanded by other countries.

I mean, this was a conspiracy theory propagated by the far-right here in the UK prior to the Brexit referendum. Which was also artifical driven by online misinformation campaigns run by.... huh. Russia. All comes full circle eh.

Economic integration with the EU was overwhelmingly supported by the Ukrainian population. Yanukovych had been elected on the promise of closer economic integration, had stated his intention to sign it, and then reneged (shortly after deciding to start throwing his democratic opponents in prison...). Oddly, it pisses off voters if a leader does that.
 
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Silvanus

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Israel is a different situation for a variety of reasons, not least that Israel never poses referenda to the Palestinian occupants of the areas they plan to steal asking if they want to be a part of Israel.
In that sense Russia is exactly the same. Russia does not pose referenda to occupants of areas it plans to steal.

It occasionally hands them questionnaires after the fact, which have no option to stay as things were, and which must be answered with a military authority surrounding them which is well known to execute anyone who says things they don't like.
 

Seanchaidh

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If a neighbouring country just fucking rolls in the tanks, there hasn't been any effort to determine if its their will or not. You're literally just assuming that they wanted to be invaded based on... uhrm... that there are quite a few Russians there, and you think Russians all love Putin.
Actually, I read some information on those places. Part of that was the archived Washington Post article I linked in that post-- which you could read if you gave a shit about those places beyond transparently treating them as a cudgel to use against Russia regardless of the wishes of their inhabitants.

The larger of the two, Abkhazia, already had a legislative body (unicameral "People's Assembly") with elected representatives (from single member electoral districts like both of our countries, unfortunately) and a Prime Minister and President following a constitution written in 1994. But sure, I'm just assuming that ethnic Russians all love Putin and not that the at least nominally democratic institutions that were present had some relation to public opinion.

If a population wants to secede or form a cooperative agreement, you know what the route is which would actually demonstrate what they want? Referendum.
Both of those places had their own (separate from Georgian) authorities already established-- the de facto states of South Ossetia and Abkhazia preceded the Russo-Georgian war. Were you not aware? So the route which they took, and which is actually more common for this sort of thing, was diplomacy. It seems like you just assume that organizations which meet your very loose democratic standards do not exist if they are not recognized by the United States and its allies. Why is that?

Abiding by the "military security policies of the EU" doesn't mean joining NATO, a different organisation.
Indeed it does not. It (and the rest of the provisions) would, however, mean obeying NATO according to Prof. Cohen. I think I'll trust his reading of the agreement over your not having read it until I can find it for myself and read it myself... unfortunately it is a bit difficult to find a particular draft of an unsigned agreement that was later changed and signed by someone different.

I mean, this was a conspiracy theory propagated by the far-right here in the UK prior to the Brexit referendum.
And your military and security policy stands in sharp contrast with and independence from NATO, I'm to imagine?

Actually, go into more detail on that, because that doesn't make any sense. You're already in NATO whether before or after Brexit. And you demonstrated that you're a good lapdog of the United States in 2003, so there's hardly anything conspiratorial to uncover.

Economic integration with the EU was overwhelmingly supported by the Ukrainian population. Yanukovych had been elected on the promise of closer economic integration, had stated his intention to sign it, and then reneged (shortly after deciding to start throwing his democratic opponents in prison...). Oddly, it pisses off voters if a leader does that.
A lot of people at the Jan. 6 insurrection in Washington D.C. were pissed off, yet you didn't seem to think they had a right to overthrow the government over it. Euromaidan was not overwhelmingly supported by the Ukrainian population. Opinion on it was, at best, evenly divided and polarized.

And just to underline this again, we're not talking about the general principle of economic integration with Europe but a specific agreement which also imposed Greek style austerity which, I don't know if you knew this, REALLY SUCKED. And they at the time knew it really sucked because this was several years after the Greek sovereign debt crisis. The general principle of Ukraine's economic integration with Europe could also have been accomplished by a tripartite agreement that included Russia, but the EU declined that proposal. If you get into the specifics of the particular agreement that was on the table, support would presumably have dropped. Which is probably why support for Euromaidan never got to 50%.
 

Silvanus

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Actually, I read some information on those places. Part of that was the archived Washington Post article I linked in that post-- which you could read if you gave a shit about those places beyond transparently treating them as a cudgel to use against Russia regardless of the wishes of their inhabitants.

The larger of the two, Abkhazia, already had a legislative body (unicameral "People's Assembly") with elected representatives (from single member electoral districts like both of our countries, unfortunately) and a Prime Minister and President following a constitution written in 1994. But sure, I'm just assuming that ethnic Russians all love Putin and not that the at least nominally democratic institutions that were present had some relation to public opinion.

Both of those places had their own (separate from Georgian) authorities already established-- the de facto states of South Ossetia and Abkhazia preceded the Russo-Georgian war. Were you not aware? So the route which they took, and which is actually more common for this sort of thing, was diplomacy. It seems like you just assume that organizations which meet your very loose democratic standards do not exist if they are not recognized by the United States and its allies. Why is that?
Uhrm, yes, I'm aware they had they're own bodies back then, and enjoyed a substantial autonomy (though I'm also unsurprised you're newly coming to this information after reading some WaPo).

Sorry, how does that in any way validate your hallucinations about wanting to be invaded? There still wasn't an actual referendum. Russia still rolled in the tanks. You're still assuming consent to be invaded.

Indeed it does not. It (and the rest of the provisions) would, however, mean obeying NATO according to Prof. Cohen. I think I'll trust his reading of the agreement over your not having read it until I can find it for myself and read it myself... unfortunately it is a bit difficult to find a particular draft of an unsigned agreement that was later changed and signed by someone different.
Ooh, the Phoenixmgs approach, where you find 1 apparent authority figure who agrees with you, rather than the preponderance of evidence!

OK, so to begin: this being the Stephen Cohen who denied Russia downed the Malaysian flight, & who attributed most Russian actions to Western provocation for decades. He's one voice, and one with an iffy track record on this area, to say the least. This clip is from a televised debate against other, equally (or better versed) geopolitical experts. A debate he officially lost.

So a question: if you believe being aligned with the UK means member states all have to follow NATO military instructions, uhrm... why has that never happened even once? Why is there absolutely nothing in any EU treaty to that effect?

And your military and security policy stands in sharp contrast with and independence from NATO, I'm to imagine?

Actually, go into more detail on that, because that doesn't make any sense. You're already in NATO whether before or after Brexit. And you demonstrated that you're a good lapdog of the United States in 2003, so there's hardly anything conspiratorial to uncover.
*face palm*

It was a conspiracy theory the right-wing rags went on about that our army was going to be incorporated into an "EU army".

As anyone who's not a hysterical tabloid reader knew, the EU had no control over our military.

A lot of people at the Jan. 6 insurrection in Washington D.C. were pissed off, yet you didn't seem to think they had a right to overthrow the government over it. Euromaidan was not overwhelmingly supported by the Ukrainian population. Opinion on it was, at best, evenly divided and polarized.

And just to underline this again, we're not talking about the general principle of economic integration with Europe but a specific agreement which also imposed Greek style austerity which, I don't know if you knew this, REALLY SUCKED. And they at the time knew it really sucked because this was several years after the Greek sovereign debt crisis. The general principle of Ukraine's economic integration with Europe could also have been accomplished by a tripartite agreement that included Russia, but the EU declined that proposal. If you get into the specifics of the particular agreement that was on the table, support would presumably have dropped. Which is probably why support for Euromaidan never got to 50%.
I imagine that combining it with his slide into authoritarianism (imprisoning his opposition) and the fact that distrust/dislike of Russia was more widespread also drove people to the street. Combining unpopular policy with repression and broken promises tends to motivate people more than unpopular policies on their own.
 
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Satinavian

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Are you really now trying to paint the EU of all things as a Washington pawn and tool of American dominance ?
 

Silvanus

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Are you really now trying to paint the EU of all things as a Washington pawn and tool of American dominance ?
As we know, if any bodies have relationships with NATO, they must be merely an extention of NATO's will. Even if NATO has never ordered them to do anything and has no legal mechanism to do so.

Unlike bodies which were established by Russian soldiers after Russian invasion, which are entirely independent of Russia.

Perfectly consistent.
 
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Agema

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Are you really now trying to paint the EU of all things as a Washington pawn and tool of American dominance ?
No, they're both pawns of the evil Western capitalist elite.

The advantage of such analysis is that allows someone to completely elide the gradations in human rights and democracy between states like the USA, Ukraine and Russia. They're all oppressive and undemocratic, so nothing really to choose between them on that score. So all the better for Russia to invade Ukraine and murder its civilians, because that's sticking one to the big bad, which is the evil Western capitalist elite.

In fact, viewing it that way, Putin is an heroic leader of the resistance to global capitalist oppression.
 

Agema

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That's what you're going with? The population is small so "how can you tell"?
What Seanchaidh also conveniently overlooks when he talks about substantial Russian populations in those areas is that Russia aggressively handed out Russian passports to citizens of those areas. The whole point of doing so is that it helped justify Russian interference in those areas in the name of protecting "its" people. It has done the same in Ukraine.

Just for context here, in the last Soviet census, the population of Abkhazia was over 500,000; consisting just under 50% Georgian, less than 20% Abkhaz, about 15% Russian, and about 20% Armenian. The population is now about 250,000; half of them Abkhaz, ~20% Georgian, 10% Russian, and 20% Armenian. Obviously, the war caused a lot of the population to leave, but the Georgians have been actively expelled. Russia gave an ethnic minority the power to overthrow the plurality and ethnically cleanse them, because it allowed Russia to effectively take the region over.

And now Donetsk and Luhansk. It looks to be literally what Russia did years ago in Abkhazia. The 2014 separatist movement was the start, and when it was contained, now the Russian army has arrived to complete the job. Unless Ukraine can push Russia back, Ukrainian loyalists will be repressed or driven out until the oblasts (or however much of them is retained by Russia) until they become de facto Russian anyway. And the usual suspect Western leftists will conveniently turn a blind eye again, because non-Western imperialism is totally okay.
 
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Silvanus

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What Seanchaidh also conveniently overlooks when he talks about substantial Russian populations in those areas is that Russia aggressively handed out Russian passports to citizens of those areas. The whole point of doing so is that it helped justify Russian interference in those areas in the name of protecting "its" people. It has done the same in Ukraine.

Just for context here, in the last Soviet census, the population of Abkhazia was over 500,000; consisting just under 50% Georgian, less than 20% Abkhaz, about 15% Russian, and about 20% Armenian. The population is now about 250,000; half of them Abkhaz, ~20% Georgian, 10% Russian, and 20% Armenian. Obviously, the war caused a lot of the population to leave, but the Georgians have been actively expelled. Russia gave an ethnic minority the power to overthrow the plurality and ethnically cleanse them, because it allowed Russia to effectively take the region over.

And now Donetsk and Luhansk. It looks to be literally what Russia did years ago in Abkhazia. The 2014 separatist movement was the start, and when it was contained, now the Russian army has arrived to complete the job. Unless Ukraine can push Russia back, Ukrainian loyalists will be repressed or driven out until the oblasts (or however much of them is retained by Russia) until they become de facto Russian anyway. And the usual suspect Western leftists will conveniently turn a blind eye again, because non-Western imperialism is totally okay.
Exactly this. Also see how Russia is currently forcibly relocating Ukrainians from occupied territories and towns to Russia; it's manipulation of demography, to artificially create justifications for abuses later and inflate territorial claims. There are also testimonies from survivors of rape that Russian soldiers told them they were doing it so they wouldn't bear Ukrainian children.

"Genocide", according to the UN, is not necessarily limited to aspects of race/ethnicity; it also covers active efforts to suppress nationalities. In that respect, many of Russia's actions here step perilously close, if not over that line.
 

Agema

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Exactly this. Also see how Russia is currently forcibly relocating Ukrainians from occupied territories and towns to Russia; it's manipulation of demography, to artificially create justifications for abuses later and inflate territorial claims. There are also testimonies from survivors of rape that Russian soldiers told them they were doing it so they wouldn't bear Ukrainian children.

"Genocide", according to the UN, is not necessarily limited to aspects of race/ethnicity; it also covers active efforts to suppress nationalities. In that respect, many of Russia's actions here step perilously close, if not over that line.
Incidentally, a high level Russian military leader appears to have said that Russia would like to occupy the entirety of southern Ukraine all the way to Transnistria, which would leave Ukraine without a coastline and its third largest city. Presumably Russia would absorb Transnistria, too.
 
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Gergar12

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As much as I don't want Ukraine to get nuked by Russian tactical nuclear weapons, or to get nuked myself. I think if Biden saves Ukraine like in the first Gulf War without nukes being involved, he could turn the mid-terms around as the savior of Ukraine, but there is a chance this could cause a nuclear war so it's too risky.
 

Hawki

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And the usual suspect Western leftists will conveniently turn a blind eye again, because non-Western imperialism is totally okay.
One of my co-workers has drunk the kool-aid on this. She basically believes that the conflict has been orchestrated by the United States, so that the EU will stop buying Russian gas, and instead buy US gas instead.

Make of such claims what you will.
 

Agema

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One of my co-workers has drunk the kool-aid on this. She basically believes that the conflict has been orchestrated by the United States, so that the EU will stop buying Russian gas, and instead buy US gas instead.
The argument is fundamentally stupid on two counts:

1) The increase in fossil fuel prices hurts the US economy more than the USA can benefit from selling gas to the EU.
2) The USA already sells its gas. It's not like there was a huge amount of unused gas production capacity going wasted in the USA because those pesky Russians were hogging the market. *

* Technically, of course, there are a lot of potential fossil fuels going unused because extracting it is economically unviable. However, it's not the sort of production that can be switched on quickly because the infrastructure to access them hasn't been built, and there's no point going to the effort of building the infrastructure unless everyone's sure prices stay high enough.
 

Seanchaidh

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Sorry, how does that in any way validate your hallucinations about wanting to be invaded? There still wasn't an actual referendum. Russia still rolled in the tanks. You're still assuming consent to be invaded.
Why would there need to be a referendum when there is already a government representing those populations? There weren't referendums for the many hundreds of US military bases around the world either. You're assuming that those governments didn't want them or request them. The Russo-Georgian war was sparked by South Ossetian terrorism against Georgia followed by Georgian retaliation against South Ossetia; South Ossetia should of course have waited a few months in order to have a lively public debate and referendum on whether they wanted Russian intervention while under assault by the Georgian military.

So a question: if you believe being aligned with the UK means member states all have to follow NATO military instructions, uhrm... why has that never happened even once? Why is there absolutely nothing in any EU treaty to that effect?
Why did NATO's first military engagement come after the dissolution of the Soviet Union? That something has not been invoked yet does not mean it isn't there.

It was a conspiracy theory the right-wing rags went on about that our army was going to be incorporated into an "EU army".
So not the same thing at all.

...

OK?

*facepalm* indeed

Are you really now trying to paint the EU of all things as a Washington pawn and tool of American dominance ?
*looks at the Greek debt crisis*

Oh, yeah, the EU is totally not a tool of western capitalist exploitation at all.

"Genocide", according to the UN, is not necessarily limited to aspects of race/ethnicity; it also covers active efforts to suppress nationalities. In that respect, many of Russia's actions here step perilously close, if not over that line.
But not if it's Ukraine doing it.

I imagine that combining it with his slide into authoritarianism (imprisoning his opposition) and the fact that distrust/dislike of Russia was more widespread also drove people to the street. Combining unpopular policy with repression and broken promises tends to motivate people more than unpopular policies on their own.
Cool.

Yanukovych came to an agreement with the opposition speaking on behalf of the protestors, but the neo-Nazis decided to break that agreement and among other things threaten his life anyway. Which is what actually caused the fall of the government, not the marches. And then various Nazi groups were incorporated into the police and military where they would, of course, never threaten anyone again.

What Seanchaidh also conveniently overlooks when he talks about substantial Russian populations in those areas is that Russia aggressively handed out Russian passports to citizens of those areas. The whole point of doing so is that it helped justify Russian interference in those areas in the name of protecting "its" people. It has done the same in Ukraine.
And neither of those places are annexed. Georgia isn't annexed.

Pretending that making it easy for people in certain places to get passports is like distributing Grimoires of Chaos magic or something doesn't help Silvanus's argument.

1) The increase in fossil fuel prices hurts the US economy more than the USA can benefit from selling gas to the EU.
2) The USA already sells its gas. It's not like there was a huge amount of unused gas production capacity going wasted in the USA because those pesky Russians were hogging the market. *
Stop trying to understand the United States in terms of its broad national interests or (even more absurdly) the interests of its population. That's not how it works or what motivates the decisions it takes. The United States will absolutely enrich small sections of its ruling class to the detriment of its overall economy, or even sometimes to the general detriment of its ruling class; elites sacrificing the power of their institutions in order to maintain or gain influence within those institutions is a tale as old as time, especially if it's the masses of people that end up suffering most of the consequences. Capitalist class solidarity only goes so far; they're competing with each other too, and the policy of the United States is often a battlefield for that competition. The undermining of the NHS is an example of how this has worked in your country. The degradation of water quality in many places in the United States, most famously Flint, is an example of this in the United States. Junking the trolley system and railroads in order to make everyone buy cars is another one: we enriched the car manufacturers at the expense of basically everyone else. This sort of corruption has shaped what the United States is today.

We will absolutely pursue a course which will enrich owners of natural gas companies, and enact sanctions designed to raise the local prices of natural gas everywhere that our companies are selling it (which is the relevant part of what cutting off Russian gas does). The United States and Canada were indeed selling their gas. And they could have been selling it for more. The difficulty of activating additional gas production just means that prices will go up (yet more) instead. The way in which higher gas prices hurt the US economy is inflationary, so the people who are hurt most are those who need things but can't afford to buy them: the poorest! Costs are passed on to the consumer, and as a result growth is slowed or reversed and wise companies cut back production. This is not really that harmful to the ruling class. In fact, it may even be beneficial; inflation apparently due to COVID coincided with record profits in 2021. The people suffered, but that's not important.
 
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Silvanus

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Why would there need to be a referendum when there is already a government representing those populations? There weren't referendums for the many hundreds of US military bases around the world either. You're assuming that those governments didn't want them or request them. The Russo-Georgian war was sparked by South Ossetian terrorism against Georgia followed by Georgian retaliation against South Ossetia; South Ossetia should of course have waited a few months in order to have a lively public debate and referendum on whether they wanted Russian intervention while under assault by the Georgian military.
What a muddled mess of poorly-constructed false analogies and flimsy justifications.

In short, this boils down to the belief that if there's conflict between two parties somewhere, then Russia is justified in marching in the troops and seizing the territory for its own control, without any pretence of asking either of the parties or the people.

Why did NATO's first military engagement come after the dissolution of the Soviet Union? That something has not been invoked yet does not mean it isn't there.
NATO also has military engagement as a core part of its entire purpose. The European Union, an economic bloc with no authority or mechanism whatsoever for commanding the armies of its members, does not.

But not if it's Ukraine doing it.
Ukraine isn't doing it.

The Russian president, and its state mouthpieces, have stated that Ukraine must not be allowed to exist, and that "de-nazification" and "de-Ukrainianisation" are the same thing. Their soldiers have been involved in mass rape and have specifically told the victims that they've done it to prevent them from being able to bear Ukrainian children. They have been forcibly deporting Ukrainians from occupied territory into Russia.

Ukraine has not done any of these things.

Yanukovych came to an agreement with the opposition speaking on behalf of the protestors, but the neo-Nazis decided to break that agreement and among other things threaten his life anyway. Which is what actually caused the fall of the government, not the marches. And then various Nazi groups were incorporated into the police and military where they would, of course, never threaten anyone again.
None of these things actually address the reasons I gave for people to be legitimately angry with the government: the illegal imprisonment of his political opponents, the reneging on election promises, and the pursuit of a policy which was massively unpopular among Ukrainians.

Also, the cursory reminder that Russia is directing neo-Nazi groups on a far, far, far larger scale, but you don't give a shit when they do it.

And neither of those places are annexed. Georgia isn't annexed.
South Ossetia and Abkhazia are de facto under direct Russian control.

Your utter gullibility for puppet governments is not shared, and it was completely hilarious when you wanted to argue that Russian invasion =/= Russian annexation, the only example you could reach for was... another country Russia has seized territory from following invasion.

Stop trying to understand the United States in terms of its broad national interests or (even more absurdly) the interests of its population. That's not how it works or what motivates the decisions it takes.
You're trying to understand the decisions of Russia on the basis of self-defence (as they invade a country that has no nuclear weapons and which has never attacked or threatened them) and de-nazification (as they bomb holocaust memorials, round up and summarily execute gay people and journalists, and attempt to destroy the Ukrainian nation as a whole).
 

Agema

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Stop trying to understand the United States in terms of its broad national interests or (even more absurdly) the interests of its population.
Oh bless: there's nothing more telling that someone's dived down the lefty rabbit hole than their assumption no-one else knows about or considers the influence elites have over politics.

I don't think the fossils fuel industry outweighs the rest of the US economy in either money or political influence. And secondly, the power of big business over politics is in large part based on the fact that politicians want money to help win elections: policies that hugely increase living costs for everyone thus make the government unpopular are a hard sell, even with oil money. For these two reasons, I think the idea that the US government policy on Ukraine is dictated by the oil industry very unlikely.
 
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Agema

You have no authority here, Jackie Weaver
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And neither of those places are annexed. Georgia isn't annexed.
Your faux-pedantic waffle about annexation is just piss-poor distraction from the basic fact that Russia is busy militarily coercing ex-Soviet countries and taking control of chunks of them that it has no rights to.

Coercion to which your exculpatory attitude suggests that you think imperialism is fine... as long as it's not Western.
 
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