Ukraine

[Satinavian]

Russia Promises They Don't Want to Invade Moldova

The Russian foreign ministry has responded to concerns the Kremlin had its sights on the breakaway republic.

www.newsweek.com

It's all good guys, they said they're not going to invade the country. We don't have to worry...
: )
They're going to invade aren't they?

I am halfway inclined to believe them.

They only have 1500 soldiers in Transnistria, without any open supply routes or proper support from the population.. If Moldava gets dragged into the war now, Russia would get kicked out of it.

Only if Russia had control over the Southern Ukraine, a move for Moldova would make any sense. But as of now pretty much everyone should have seen that this won't happen.



Honestly, it is possible that the locals try to rid of the Russians now, considering the world climate is more hostile to Russia than at any other time the last 3 decades, The Russian Army is humiliated and seems weak and Russia is occupied welsewhere.

 

[Agema]

I am halfway inclined to believe them.

Russia has no intention to invade Moldova... but it almost certainly is perfectly happy to declare Transnistria independent and then take it over, because then by its own legal confection it wouldn't be invading Moldova.

 

[Silvanus]

Only if Russia had control over the Southern Ukraine, a move for Moldova would make any sense. But as of now pretty much everyone should have seen that this won't happen.

It's absolutely possible. They still have the upper hand by an enormous margin. And taking a thin corridor of land in the South, including a swathe of land that's already de facto under control of separatists, is a hell of a lot easier than taking the capital and deposing the government.

 

[Satinavian]

Russia has no intention to invade Moldova... but it almost certainly is perfectly happy to declare Transnistria independent and then take it over, because then by its own legal confection it wouldn't be invading Moldova.

An "independent" Transnistria between a hostile Moldova and an even more hostile Ukraine ? That would be quite risky. They are rekless, but i am not sure that reckless.

 

[Agema]

An "independent" Transnistria between a hostile Moldova and an even more hostile Ukraine ? That would be quite risky. They are rekless, but i am not sure that reckless.

I think it's safe to say that Russia will not do much about Transnistria unless it can take the whole of South Ukraine. If it can link up with Transnistria, however, I think it will claim it.

 

[Kwak]

NATO is a deeply flawed and militaristic institution. But from the POV of a European nation, it is currently the only potential guarantor of protection from invasion, slaughter, and annexation.

Not for Ukraine.

 

[Silvanus]

And now for something completely different.

Russian state TV has been broadcasting about a supposed foiled assassination attempt by Ukrainian neo-Nazis, against the propagandist Vladimir Solovyov. They've broadcast photos supposedly showing the paraphernalia recovered from the assassins' room;


* Uhrm, including a copy of The Sims 3 and two of its expansions, intentionally laid out by the investigators alongside Nazi gear. The current theory is that a bunch of amateurs were directed to stage it, and misunderstood "3 Sims" (as in SIM cards) for The Sims 3;

* A red swastika T-shirt.... with the central crease from where it was packaged still clearly visible, indicating it's never been worn and was removed from the package for this photo op;

* Best of all! A handwritten note is briefly shown in a video that Russian state TV has been showing.... signed in Russian with the words "Signature Illegible".

So... uhrm, ok. So I suppose the FSB handed the job to a bunch of bungling amateurs to stage it, and they made a series of comedic mistakes. I would've concluded that this was so amateurish, so idiotic, that maybe it was set up by a bunch of jokers to try to make the FSB look incompetent at staging a fake plot.... If it wasn't for the fact that Russian state TV is screaming about how this proves Zelensky is ordering Russians to be assassinated.

 

[Silvanus]

Not for Ukraine.

"Potential", as in, membership would convey those benefits. Not that NATO itself conveys those benefits for non-members.

 

[EvilRoy]

Russia Promises They Don't Want to Invade Moldova

The Russian foreign ministry has responded to concerns the Kremlin had its sights on the breakaway republic.

www.newsweek.com

It's all good guys, they said they're not going to invade the country. We don't have to worry...
: )
They're going to invade aren't they?

My prediction is that they are making this claim now, knowing no reasonable person will believe them. Once Moldova and nearby countries start hardening their defences in anticipation of a Russian invasion, Russia will claim this constitutes a threat to Russia. Then the re-use the current justification for invading Ukraine and seek to subjugate Moldova to create "a neutral buffer". No one but Sean will believe them, but it won't matter because people will already be dead.

 

[Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Putin is getting real, I guess you realized Europe is trying to get off his gas real and has done a pretty extreme move.

 

[Trunkage]

My prediction is that they are making this claim now, knowing no reasonable person will believe them. Once Moldova and nearby countries start hardening their defences in anticipation of a Russian invasion, Russia will claim this constitutes a threat to Russia. Then the re-use the current justification for invading Ukraine and seek to subjugate Moldova to create "a neutral buffer". No one but Sean will believe them, but it won't matter because people will already be dead.

I would point out that part of Moldova is actually pro-Russia and apparently not the 'Pro-Russian Ukraine' made up by Putin (eg. more like Crimea.) They MIGHT just take that part. But Putin keeps f'ing up

Imagine losing a war and then thinking the solution is opening up another front in the war

 

[Trunkage]

Not for Ukraine.

They convinced Ukraine to get rid of their nukes

 

[EvilRoy]

I would point out that part of Moldova is actually pro-Russia and apparently not the 'Pro-Russian Ukraine' made up by Putin (eg. more like Crimea.) They MIGHT just take that part. But Putin keeps f'ing up

Imagine losing a war and then thinking the solution is opening up another front in the war

That's true, but even if we pretend that parts of Ukraine definitely wanted to be Russian we still know for a fact that Putin didn't try to take only that section - he went right for the throat. Now that everyone has seen how far he is willing to go, that's the high water mark they'll be prepping for.

Even if Moldova is willing to give up the associated land without a fight, they likely recognize that it's entirety possible Putin will try to take the whole pie rather than just a slice and in that case they would be fools not to prepare for it.

 

[Agema]

Even if Moldova is willing to give up the associated land without a fight, they likely recognize that it's entirety possible Putin will try to take the whole pie rather than just a slice and in that case they would be fools not to prepare for it.

In the long run, I don't think Transnistria has much a future unless Russia's willing to subsidise it for pretty much forever or conquer Ukraine. A tiny, extraordinarily poor, sad little enclave of Russified people miles away from their cultural brethren, that's now sandwiched entirely by two countries that will not like it very much.

I'm pretty sure attacking Moldova (except Transnistria) is a step too far even for Russia - and I think that is certainly a point NATO might draw a line. If nothing else, if threatened Moldovans might be motivated to quickly stitch up unification with Romania (it already has some popularity), which would instantly turn it into a NATO member.

 

[The Rogue Wolf]

And now for something completely different.

Russian state TV has been broadcasting about a supposed foiled assassination attempt by Ukrainian neo-Nazis, against the propagandist Vladimir Solovyov. They've broadcast photos supposedly showing the paraphernalia recovered from the assassins' room;


* Uhrm, including a copy of The Sims 3 and two of its expansions, intentionally laid out by the investigators alongside Nazi gear. The current theory is that a bunch of amateurs were directed to stage it, and misunderstood "3 Sims" (as in SIM cards) for The Sims 3;

* A red swastika T-shirt.... with the central crease from where it was packaged still clearly visible, indicating it's never been worn and was removed from the package for this photo op;

* Best of all! A handwritten note is briefly shown in a video that Russian state TV has been showing.... signed in Russian with the words "Signature Illegible".

So... uhrm, ok. So I suppose the FSB handed the job to a bunch of bungling amateurs to stage it, and they made a series of comedic mistakes. I would've concluded that this was so amateurish, so idiotic, that maybe it was set up by a bunch of jokers to try to make the FSB look incompetent at staging a fake plot.... If it wasn't for the fact that Russian state TV is screaming about how this proves Zelensky is ordering Russians to be assassinated.

Someone in the FSB is now rip-roaring drunk and basing covert ops on rejected Adam Sandler screenplays.

 

[EvilRoy]

In the long run, I don't think Transnistria has much a future unless Russia's willing to subsidise it for pretty much forever or conquer Ukraine. A tiny, extraordinarily poor, sad little enclave of Russified people miles away from their cultural brethren, that's now sandwiched entirely by two countries that will not like it very much.

I'm pretty sure attacking Moldova (except Transnistria) is a step too far even for Russia - and I think that is certainly a point NATO might draw a line. If nothing else, if threatened Moldovans might be motivated to quickly stitch up unification with Romania (it already has some popularity), which would instantly turn it into a NATO member.

I'd agree if we were dealing with a group making rational decisions, but as it stands I don't trust Putin to plan rationally. I think yourself and others already pointed out - if this situation was spurred on by fearing NATO the all it did was push a pair of counties into NATO membership. Whatever planning is going on here, it's not going well.

 

[Silvanus]

People have probably already read that Russia's Gazprom has halted the gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria.

Russia accused of blackmail after gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria halted

EU hits out at move that Kremlin says is response to countries’ failure to pay in roubles

www.theguardian.com

Gazprom had demanded that the bill be paid in roubles (though its contracted to be in US dollars). Poland and Bulgaria refused to agree to the new terms, so Gazprom has refused to fulfil the contract.

The contractual side of things isn't exactly noteworthy; regular contractual agreements get superceded in times of sanction and war. What's noteworthy is that it shows Russia's willingness to drastically reduce its own main export (and its main source of income) in order to sanction Europe. European countries had already been talking about weaning themselves off Russian gas; has Russia just sanctioned itself more severely than its sanctioned Poland or Bulgaria? Is this move intended to show European leaders that Russia doesn't need the income? Seems a major financial gamble, when the Russian economy is already suffering dramatically.

(Interestingly, Poland has massive reserves, and can operate independently of Russian gas for years anyway).

 

[Satinavian]

I think it is mostly an attempt to divide the EU. The sanctions are EU-wide, but Russia insists on treating every nation differently thus hinting at more severe punishments for those who support Ukraine more.
By selectively applying harm and threatening the rest, there is probably also the hope that the question whether the EU countries help each other here sparks internal unrest, considering that those countries that still gat gas might lose it as well and thus might not want to share reserves. And while Poland can get by without Russian gas anyway and didn't renew the contract, making this move irrelevant for them, Bulgaria might need help.

Autocrats always try the divide and conquer route. Because they can't believe that a multilateral cooperation might work without anyone at the top applying force.

 

[Silvanus]

If anyone's wondering how Russia can continue funding an operation of this massive scale, even though their economy was struggling even before the invasion, and even with the raft of sanctions facing them...

Russia doubles fossil fuel revenues since invasion of Ukraine began

Country receives about €62bn from exports of oil, gas and coal in two months, with Germany the biggest importer

www.theguardian.com

Russian oil revenues have actually increased significantly since the war began. Lower available supply has driven the price up to the point where it more than makes up for the sales shortfall.

The biggest importers in Europe by far are Germany and Italy, each importing more than twice as much as any other country.

 

[Satinavian]

That won't last.

At the moment everyone is scrambling for alternative sources which does stupid things to the market price but once those are in place, the price will go down fast. Especially as the current price hike and the political climate are pushing investment in renewables.

Russia will eventually lose the European market completely, at the latest around 2025 and will see low gas prices for their exports to India and China as well.