Ukraine

Satinavian

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A bad deal that Ukraine would be foolish even to consider, indeed.
Oh, we actually agree about something in the Ukraine thread.
Or they could have an election. It is past due, after all.
Maybe they could if Russia was willing to accept a ceasefire. The only thing stopping the election is the ongoing fighting.
 

Silvanus

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Or they could have an election. It is past due, after all.
Not really; elections are typically suspended during wartime (same as in most countries, for quite understandable reasons), and Ukraine is under a protracted invasion. Even the opposition have agreed one shouldn't be run now. It's a bit much to expect people to evade the daily firebombing of their homes and neighbourhoods to go to the polls, and it's especially rich for Putin-- who has allowed no free vote for 25 years-- to be suggesting it.
 
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Seanchaidh

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Oh, we actually agree about something in the Ukraine thread.
It's a pretty easy conclusion to come to. It is beyond clear that US weapons have been gifts all along. Trump's insistence on being 'paid back' for previous aid insults everyone's intelligence.
 

Thaluikhain

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Basically, the UK doesn't have the naval power to independently deploy aircraft carriers against anyone with a reasonably functioning air force / navy, so they're pretty much no use except as part of a larger, multinational task force. Although this could change if the UK does increase defence spending to 3% GDP.
When was the last time someone did deploy aircraft carriers against anyone with a reasonably functioning air force / navy, though? The Falklands, maybe?
 

Agema

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When was the last time someone did deploy aircraft carriers against anyone with a reasonably functioning air force / navy, though? The Falklands, maybe?
I would say so, yes.

Although with a caveat that the US had aircraft carriers deployed for the Gulf War and Iraq invasion, but I don't think they were meaningfully exposed in the same way given the plentiful land-based forces and (in the latter conflict) severely depleted opposition.
 

Silvanus

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Russia's SVR agency published a very... interesting screed yesterday.

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SVR said:
A retrospective analysis of the policies of Western states shows Europe's "historical predisposition" to various forms of totalitarianism, which periodically produces destructive conflicts on a global scale.

According to experts, the current discord in relations between the United States and the EU countries, which accuse D. Trump of authoritarianism, is becoming, against the backdrop of the upcoming 80th anniversary of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War, a factor contributing to the situational rapprochement between Washington and Moscow, as has happened more than once in the past.

[...]

Attention was drawn to the fact that it was in France that dictatorial regimes repeatedly came to power, distinguished by particular atrocities and cruelty. Among them are the Jacobin dictatorship, which destroyed thousands of its own citizens in 1793-1794 and imprisoned 300 thousand people on suspicion of "counterrevolution", as well as the bloody actions of Napoleon. It is emphasized that America is free thanks to the willingness of the ancestors of modern Americans to resist such dictatorships as the British monarchy or the Jacobin revolution.

[...Here there's a lot of stuff about WW2 and the British Empire...]

Experts recall that in the past there have been many moments when Washington and Moscow became partners in opposing London and Paris in the international arena. A typical example of this is the Suez Crisis of 1956. The tough position of the USSR and the USA stopped the triple aggression of Great Britain, France and Israel against Egypt. Another page of history that is now little known in the West are the events of the Crimean War of 1853-1856, when Great Britain, France, the Ottoman Empire and the Kingdom of Sardinia united against Russia (similar to today's "coalition of the willing"). Despite formal neutrality, the sympathies of the White House in this confrontation were on the side of St. Petersburg. This is evidenced by the participation of American doctors in the treatment of the defenders of Sevastopol, the “request of 300 riflemen from Kentucky” to send them to defend this city, the activities of the Russian-American Company to supply gunpowder and food to our fortresses and possessions on the Pacific coast.

[...More stuff about WW2 and equating Ukraine with Nazis...]

As for Russian-American relations in the context of past and current events, foreign expert circles express hope for a new unification of efforts by Moscow and Washington, capable of preventing the world from sliding into a new global conflict and resisting possible provocations from both Ukraine and the “crazy Europeans,” traditionally egged on by Great Britain."
Hm. The SVR sees a kindred spirit in the White House's current occupant, or at least believes it can curry favour and prompt him to allow a carve-up of Eastern Europe between the dominant military hegemons.

Mostly I find it quite amusing for them to talk about the European 'predisposition' to dictatorship and totalitarianism, given that Russia has existed under an almost-uninterrupted string of dictatorships, apart from (arguably) a brief stint in the 90s.
 

Thaluikhain

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The French revolution and Crimean war are a tad on the old side, odd to bring those up rather than more modern things, even if they have to make them up out of nowhere.
 

Terminal Blue

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Edit: Its not just the missles. The UK needs a strategic long range bomber too. It relies on aircraft carriers at the moment and that might not be a good plan. I'm pretty sure none of euro has a stealth craft for such a mission
I love bombers. They're big and cool and often some of the most striking aircraft designs, but I think they have long since reached the point of being extremely questionable from a cost/effectiveness standpoint. The vast majority of the time, whatever you would want a bomber to do could be done by a much smaller aircraft armed with a cruise missile for a tiny fraction of the cost. We know the successor to storm shadow will have a stealth variant, for example, which would presumably fit this bill (although I don't know if it will be nuclear-capable).

While bombers can reach incredibly long ranges they also aren't a great solution for projecting power around the world as they can only reach those ranges with in-flight refuelling. Having a super fancy stealth bomber isn't much good if it's dependent on extremely unstealthy and vulnerable tankers pre-positioned along its flight path.

But yes, I always took them for vanity projects for people who didn't want to give up the idea that Britannia rules the waves.
Fielding a full-sized modern aircraft carrier is kind of an achievement in and of itself and I think there is an open question about how well a less technologically advanced air force, no matter how large and well trained, would deal with 5th generation fighters like the F-35. The main issue, I suspect, is that aircraft carriers themselves are a lot more vulnerable than they used to be and, to be honest, I'm not actually sure there's all that much that can be done to make it better. There is really no other way to get significant amounts of aircraft to somewhere far away from any friendly ground bases.

I don't think they were designed to single-handedly fight some kind of hypothetical conflict in the Pacific against China, for example, but rather to provide options if something like the Falklands War were to happen again. Essentially, a conflict in which the enemy is much weaker overall but can potentially bring more of its force to bear in the region where the conflict takes place.
 

Agema

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Funnilly enough, Rubio is right, it's not the USA's war.

But then that's already reflected in the fact that the grand total of US troops deployed in battle since the war started stands at zero, which makes Rubio's statement strangely pointless.

Except perhaps for the fact that the USA appears to be preparing the ground to throw Ukraine under the bus.
 

Gergar12

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Satinavian

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The peacemaker?

That ia a month old and we all know that Russia rejected Trumps ceasefire.

And Wittkoff has not achieved anything else either. His blatant pro-Russia stance has not made him any friends in Europe nor even made Putin more agreeable.
It only has conformed for Putin that the US and Trump is toothless.

And in the middle East he even has less profile.
 

Agema

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World War II wasn't America's war, either... until suddenly it was. How eager is Trump to see another Pearl Harbor on his watch?
Trump's characterisation of the Russia-Ukraine war wildly overstates US involvement. This is deliberate. The intent is to portray the war as a severe burden on the USA, and thus justify Trump gouging Ukraine to an absurd degree or abandoning Ukraine to its fate. That's the context they use the term "our war". It's the same sort of thing as when they keep reinforcing Putin's messaging about Russia being a nuclear power: it's magnifying the sense of risk to scare Americans into giving up Ukraine.
 

Thaluikhain

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World War II wasn't America's war, either... until suddenly it was. How eager is Trump to see another Pearl Harbor on his watch?
The sale Macy's had for the one year anniversary of Pearl Harbour brought in their highest profits for one day. Though I don't see the US being attacked any time soon by a major military power.
 

Hades

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Someone should point out to the Russians that Nazi Germany's biggest ally during the invasions of Poland and France....was Soviet Russia. They directly schemed with the Nazi's to start WW2 in order to get Poland, and they made a non aggression pact that ensured Germany could bring its full weight to bear against France. Even with France so drastically under performing its dubious that the war would have escalated as much as it did if Hitler had to keep vast forces behind to guard their eastern flank.

Just like WW1 Russia might not have been the primary instigator(in that case it being Serbia/Austria) but they were not far behind and have vast amount of blood on their hands in how the war started.

I suppose that while its pathetic and often results in gibberish its fairly logical Russia so often falsifies and propagandize history . After all what does Russia have in its history that it can possibly be proud of? All they ever build were backwards, tyrannical and war mongering failed states, that never gained much prosperity despite violently leeching off all its neighbors.

Its hard to think of another state that was so consistently backwards, so consistently on the wrong side of history and so eternally unwilling to provide for its population. If my state was such a perpetual hellhole I'd probably try to hide it too.
 

Thaluikhain

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Someone should point out to the Russians that Nazi Germany's biggest ally during the invasions of Poland and France....was Soviet Russia. They directly schemed with the Nazi's to start WW2 in order to get Poland, and they made a non aggression pact that ensured Germany could bring its full weight to bear against France. Even with France so drastically under performing its dubious that the war would have escalated as much as it did if Hitler had to keep vast forces behind to guard their eastern flank.

Just like WW1 Russia might not have been the primary instigator(in that case it being Serbia/Austria) but they were not far behind and have vast amount of blood on their hands in how the war started.
Oh, there are arguments to be made against that. Sure, the USSR made a non-aggression pact, but then one reason the Nazis were popular is that they were expected to destroy the communists (and not without reason for that expectation). If things had gone differently, we could be saying that the West was complicit in the Germans declaring war on the Soviets to start WW3.

Having said that, what the Soviets of the 1940s did hardly excuses what the Russians of the 2020s are doing.
 

Gergar12

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That ia a month old and we all know that Russia rejected Trumps ceasefire.

And Wittkoff has not achieved anything else either. His blatant pro-Russia stance has not made him any friends in Europe nor even made Putin more agreeable.
It only has conformed for Putin that the US and Trump is toothless.

And in the middle East he even has less profile.
He got Iran to the table on the Middle East and isn't arrogant like many democratic party diplomats, and I don't think peace in Europe is a goal of the US. I think it's more likely to get Russia distracted in Europe, so they don't send their military to the far east and Arctic, which threatens US interests more. The worst case scenario is Russia takes 1/4 of Poland, but then gets pushed back, granted that isn't very pleasant, but Russia isn't getting to, for example, Germany, it's not realistic. Again, that's assuming the US abandons NATO.