US 2024 Presidential Election

Trunkage

Nascent Orca
Legacy
Jun 21, 2012
9,141
3,083
118
Brisbane
Gender
Cyborg
You can stop with the gasslighting on this. No, far right Demagogues who are anti judiciary, anti minority and anti press are not secretly your average god fearing conservatives. They aren't, they've never been, and they typically hold such conservatives in contempt.
Like most Conservatives, whatever they believed before they called themselves Conservative is what they pretend is Conservativism is. It's reverse engineering the term Conservativism to match their own beliefs. Most current Conservative beliefs aren't actually Conservative
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jarrito3002

Dirty Hipsters

This is how we praise the sun!
Legacy
Feb 7, 2011
8,687
3,254
118
Country
'Merica
Gender
3 children in a trench coat
I would say the demand is dropping in California over the last few years. If they regret it, they're not really moving back nor are other people really moving in either. IIRC from one of the sources, California lost net people 3 years straight before 2024. A state should gain people. Indiana had 44,000 people more in 2024 and California has over 6 times Indiana's population.
A lot of people who regret moving out of California can't move back. They sold their houses when they had mortgages close to 2% interest, and if they wanted to come back they would only be able to get mortgages that are 7% interest. Interest rates went up, affordability went down. Those who moved out because it was already unaffordable aren't going to be coming back because it's gotten even less affordable...but they want to. And the interest rate going up doesn't have anything to do with the governing of California, interest rates are up globally.

I can't find any other source saying Texas has more of a tax burden than California.
Here you go:
 

Chimpzy

Simian Abomination
Legacy
Escapist +
Apr 3, 2020
13,166
9,774
118


 

Agema

Do everything and feel nothing
Legacy
Mar 3, 2009
9,357
6,630
118
There are all sorts of ways to look at this.

1) Broadly, it is more expensive to make things in the USA than other countries, because labour costs are higher. Both due to tariffs initially and production costs later, the end cost to the customer is going to increase, i.e. inflation. This is rarely popular.

2) Chances are, all other major economic areas will do similarly. Trade will decrease, and ultimately risks a decline in quality when inferior home products end up politically favoured over better foreign. It will also breed competitors. China has a tech industry in large part because it has piggy-backed off US outsourcing. Thus instead of global behemoths like Intel, every major area will have it's own mini-Intel: and chances are at least one will end up better than Intel.

3) Who is going to work in these factories? US unemployment is very low; some of this is general churn as people move jobs, there's some voluntary economic inactivity, and let's face it, some of the unemployed are effectively unemployable. This is going to mean immigrants (politically painful), and/or a squeeze on other parts of the US labour market. The latter means job shortages in some industries and reduced capacity, probably also wage increases - which might be good, except that it's also likely to be offset by increased costs i.e. inflation.

4) It's potentially beneficial if the USA transitions back to more manufacturing. Some studies suggest that there is more economic growth available from manufacturing than services; this theory suggests the decline of manufacturing is a significant part of why economic growth has slowed since the 1980s in the West.

5) Countries will probably benefit from elements of specialisation, because it's not possible to maintain top industries in everything. For instance, if you've got a limited pool of physics graduates, you might have to consider how that talent is distributed: being great at a few things, or mediocre at a lot of things. Is this part of a properly worked-out strategy to develop industries with good future prospects that the USA can sustain?

6) Is it really a good idea to then try to also impoverish your allies and neighbours? To all intents and purposes, anything Canada makes the USA already has via trade. So the USA has it's own ~330 million people's worth of production, plus key elements of Canada's ~40 million as and when it wants. It seems clever to steal Canada's industry, but to steal Canada's industry is essentially to give the USA 330 million people's worth of production, plus nothing. It's actually a net loss.
 

Dirty Hipsters

This is how we praise the sun!
Legacy
Feb 7, 2011
8,687
3,254
118
Country
'Merica
Gender
3 children in a trench coat
There are all sorts of ways to look at this.

1) Broadly, it is more expensive to make things in the USA than other countries, because labour costs are higher. Both due to tariffs initially and production costs later, the end cost to the customer is going to increase, i.e. inflation. This is rarely popular.

2) Chances are, all other major economic areas will do similarly. Trade will decrease, and ultimately risks a decline in quality when inferior home products end up politically favoured over better foreign. It will also breed competitors. China has a tech industry in large part because it has piggy-backed off US outsourcing. Thus instead of global behemoths like Intel, every major area will have it's own mini-Intel: and chances are at least one will end up better than Intel.

3) Who is going to work in these factories? US unemployment is very low; some of this is general churn as people move jobs, there's some voluntary economic inactivity, and let's face it, some of the unemployed are effectively unemployable. This is going to mean immigrants (politically painful), and/or a squeeze on other parts of the US labour market. The latter means job shortages in some industries and reduced capacity, probably also wage increases - which might be good, except that it's also likely to be offset by increased costs i.e. inflation.

4) It's potentially beneficial if the USA transitions back to more manufacturing. Some studies suggest that there is more economic growth available from manufacturing than services; this theory suggests the decline of manufacturing is a significant part of why economic growth has slowed since the 1980s in the West.

5) Countries will probably benefit from elements of specialisation, because it's not possible to maintain top industries in everything. For instance, if you've got a limited pool of physics graduates, you might have to consider how that talent is distributed: being great at a few things, or mediocre at a lot of things. Is this part of a properly worked-out strategy to develop industries with good future prospects that the USA can sustain?

6) Is it really a good idea to then try to also impoverish your allies and neighbours? To all intents and purposes, anything Canada makes the USA already has via trade. So the USA has it's own ~330 million people's worth of production, plus key elements of Canada's ~40 million as and when it wants. It seems clever to steal Canada's industry, but to steal Canada's industry is essentially to give the USA 330 million people's worth of production, plus nothing. It's actually a net loss.
I would also point out that it usually takes years to set up new production facilities on a large enough scale to replace overseas production. If chip makers wanted to build fabs in the US on the same scale as what is currently in Taiwan it would take longer to do so than Trump's entire second term in office, and would potentially cost more than what those companies would lose because of tariffs. They can wait Trump out and hope the next administration drops this tariff nonsense.
 

tstorm823

Elite Member
Legacy
Aug 4, 2011
7,350
972
118
Country
USA
This spending freeze really rips the mask off of how many people on the internet are just outright liars. I can't speak to the Medicare portal itself, maybe it was caught in the confusion of the order, maybe critical staff were given the boot and something they did got neglected, maybe it was coincidence, maybe it was sabotage...

But right now, the internet is covered in people saying things like "my job uses government grants, and now we're all not allowed to work" or "my company is gonna go bankrupt cause they cut off our contract" or "we have to reject kids with cancer and send them home untreated now", and anyone who has ever done anything with government contracts knows that every one of those people is totally full of crap. Nothing with government happens that fast. Grant programs take freaking forever to work through, and typically you have your funds before you start the project that uses them, because you can't start something not knowing if it'll be paid for. Government contracts work the opposite way, you expect your line of credit to get stretched because you will be waiting weeks or months to actually get paid. The pause wouldn't have serious downstream effects for months. Payments from the government just don't work that way, hell payments between businesses don't work that way, most things are run on net 30 payment terms.

Any payments being paused now are either for things that happened 30-90 days ago or for grant-based programs that haven't even started yet, which means everyone telling stories about their place of work suddenly having no money to continue working is just lying for fake internet points.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Phoenixmgs

Silvanus

Elite Member
Legacy
Jan 15, 2013
12,420
6,508
118
Country
United Kingdom
First up, I'll say that the freeze is utterly moronic, probably illegal, & (if it went ahead) would threaten to destroy vital services and livelihoods.

That said, this--

But right now, the internet is covered in people saying things like "my job uses government grants, and now we're all not allowed to work" or "my company is gonna go bankrupt cause they cut off our contract" or "we have to reject kids with cancer and send them home untreated now", and anyone who has ever done anything with government contracts knows that every one of those people is totally full of crap.
-- is pretty much true. Government funding doesn't work on an instant, overnight basis in the vast, vast majority of cases, and these agencies obviously don't work on a day-to-day budget. Yet I've seen some of these idiotic little stories too. The Internet is awash with fake anecdotalism, trawling for anonymous validation and Reddit karma. And most of these stories are that (I suppose a few might be fringe cases or employers overreacting).

On the Medicaid portals... that outage won't have been directly caused by the freeze of course, but it coincided a little too neatly. I wouldn't be surprised if some administration nutcase took them down as a stunt, intending to send a message to people who use gov funds that they can't rely on them. Similar to those thugs who targeted minorities in the wake of the Brexit vote-- the message is, "see, the country is with us now, you're not safe".
 
  • Like
Reactions: tstorm823

Phoenixmgs

The Muse of Fate
Legacy
Apr 3, 2020
9,914
836
118
w/ M'Kraan Crystal
Gender
Male
I pretty sure I already addressed that. I don't like Christian Democrats. I don't call them far right because they typically lack the traits found in the far right. The traits I already named as Trump and all the other clowns and freaks having. Are the AFD, Meloni and Trump secretly pro judiciary, pro minorities and pro free press? They're not. And are their great examples suddenly not Orban and Putin anymore?

You can stop with the gasslighting on this. No, far right Demagogues who are anti judiciary, anti minority and anti press are not secretly your average god fearing conservatives. They aren't, they've never been, and they typically hold such conservatives in contempt.

As for Trump. I could point you to pretty much the entirety of project 2025 but then you'd act ''cute'' and pretend Trump is secretly against is, and that he's truthful when he says he's totally not attached to it. He's been pretty much embracing far right dog whistles and hobbies non stop since he became president. Rolling back civil right legislation, demonizing ''DEI'' and abolishing several programs relating to that. Or his plans to fire civil servants for his political beliefs(or rather their lack of them)
What has Trump done that is anti judiciary, anti minority, and anti free press? All you do is say these people are these things, where are the actual examples?

Trump didn't fucking write Project 2025 and at least half the stuff people say is in there, isn't even fucking in there. What civil rights legislation has he rolled back? DEI is bullshit to begin with, being against DEI is not far right. When did he say he was going to (or has) fired anyone for their political beliefs?

A lot of people who regret moving out of California can't move back. They sold their houses when they had mortgages close to 2% interest, and if they wanted to come back they would only be able to get mortgages that are 7% interest. Interest rates went up, affordability went down. Those who moved out because it was already unaffordable aren't going to be coming back because it's gotten even less affordable...but they want to. And the interest rate going up doesn't have anything to do with the governing of California, interest rates are up globally.



Here you go:
That is almost entirely anecdotal evidence of people regretting the move out of California. People are opposed to change so the fact that people actually moved means the situation got pretty bad in the 1st place.

Ah, ok that break down makes more sense. However, you still have to deal with the higher home/rental prices which probably makes that one extra % of so of saved money on taxes have not that much of an effect.


First up, I'll say that the freeze is utterly moronic, probably illegal, & (if it went ahead) would threaten to destroy vital services and livelihoods.
That isn't true. I got friends on Facebook saying stuff like SNAP and Section 8 are frozen, that is not true.
 

Agema

Do everything and feel nothing
Legacy
Mar 3, 2009
9,357
6,630
118
Any payments being paused now are either for things that happened 30-90 days ago or for grant-based programs that haven't even started yet, which means everyone telling stories about their place of work suddenly having no money to continue working is just lying for fake internet points.
It's not necessarily that malign, it can just be a classic type of panic.

I run a university course, and every once in a while a student contacts me in a tizzy because they think we're going to fail them for some reason or other. They think we're going to fail them because some other student on the shared cohort Whatsapp group said so. They and numerous others think that Whatsapp rumour is true even despite it plainly going against the official guidance we gave them, which was subsequently reinforced it in two briefings. They could even check that information, because it's still available to them with a few mouse clicks. And instead, the mere rumour has thrown them into a full blown panic.

Such is the human condition.

Those students may be diagnosing and treating your and my illnesses in a few years. Something to look forward to.
 

Cicada 5

Elite Member
Apr 16, 2015
2,918
1,502
118
Country
Nigeria
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. once proposed that Americans should receive vaccines on different schedules based on their race, according to a bombshell report.

President Donald Trump’s nominee for health secretary made the inflammatory claim in a 2021 talk posted to his Children’s Health Defense website, the anti-vaccine nonprofit that has netted him a fortune, the Washington Post reported.

“Now we know that, you know, we should not be giving Black people the same vaccine schedule that’s given to Whites, because their immune system is better than ours,” Kennedy said.

The paper’s review of more than 400 of Kennedy’s media appearances since 2020 found that the health secretary nominee has regularly shared misleading claims about vaccines.
He has claimed links between vaccines and autism on at least 36 occasions in public appearances despite scientific evidence debunking such claims, the newspaper reported. On at least 144 occasions, he has broadly rebuked vaccines as dangerous and ineffective, alleging that vaccines “poisoned an entire generation of American children.”

If the Senate confirms RFK Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, the Kennedy scion will have unfettered control over the health and welfare of Americans as the country’s first line of defense against pandemics.

However, several senators have indicated that RFK Jr. may face an uphill battle for the job during Wednesday’s scheduled confirmation hearing due to his history of peddling health conspiracy theories.

RFK Jr. also claimed in 2023 that the COVID-19 virus was engineered “to attack Caucasians and Black people,” but not “Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese.”
 

tstorm823

Elite Member
Legacy
Aug 4, 2011
7,350
972
118
Country
USA
It's not necessarily that malign, it can just be a classic type of panic.

Such is the human condition.
I suppose in most places that could be the case. I will allow for that possibility in my mind everywhere but the reddit front page. There i maintain my cynicism, lol.
 

Silvanus

Elite Member
Legacy
Jan 15, 2013
12,420
6,508
118
Country
United Kingdom
RFK Jr's senate confirmation hearing is currently ongoing. Some highlights:

--

Michael Bennet: “Did you say that Lyme disease is highly likely a materially engineered bioweapon?”

Kennedy: "I probably did say that.”

--

Bennet: "Did you write in your book, and I quote, ‘it’s undeniable that African Aids is an entirely different disease from western Aids’?”

Kennedy: “I’m not sure.”

--

Cortez Masto: "You would agree also as an attorney that federal law protects [A woman's] right to that emergency care [if a pregnancy was life-threatening to the mother], correct?”

Kennedy: “I don’t know.”

---

Brimming with confidence!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kwak