US 2024 Presidential Election

meiam

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how do you propose the secret service prevent someone at a press gathering from taking their shoe off and throwing it short of making everyone go barefoot?
They didn't exactly react quickly when it happened, didn't even notice the guy getting up with his shoe in his hand, nor tried to get the pres out of there asap.

But either way, you can look up a long list of failed and successful assassination attempt, the secret service isn't some invincible organization, they screw up all the time, them screwed up this time isn't that spectacular, nor a sign of a conspiracy.

Also, the ban porn thing. The point isn't whether or not they'll be successful at banning porn (it would probably just end up the same as prohibition), the point is that, yes the 2025 people are nuts and would really like to remove plenty of rights from the American public, and plenty of them are in important position and they've infested large swathes of the judiciary. And those people are using Trump as their figurehead/battering ram. I understand that republican voter are adverse to learning things, but it would be nice if they actually took the time to understand what they were voting for.
 

tippy2k2

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Every serious presidential candidate is balls deep for Israel. They're our only real ally in the Middle East, so we're going to support them pretty much regardless of what they do, sort of trying to invade Western Europe. Also AIPAC is kind of a big lobby group, so follow the money.
Yeah, I'm aware of that but I was optimistic that she might at least try to reign in Israel a little bit instead of continuing Biden's "Hey, don't cross this red line! Oh...you crossed it? Well don't do it again! Oh...you crossed it again? Well don't do....damn it Israel, you're making it hard for me to keep shoveling you billions in arms!!!!"
 
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tippy2k2

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The older I have got, the more I realise that its institutions that make things happen, not individuals. The larger the institution, the harder it is to change it. The USA is an institution, and it's about as hard to change course as a battleship or oil tanker. It does, just extremely slowly, and possibly often just because old people die and get replaced by younger ones, so at the rate of generations.

There is no-one you can elect to the US presidency that won't back Israel, because there is absolutely no reason, at an institutional level, for them to do so. The money is not in opposing Israel, the political money is not in opposing Israel, the national military and intelligence benefits are not in opposing Israel. The last thing that could possibly make the difference is public opinion (i.e. votes), and Israel - whilst significantly less popular than it used to be and losing sympathy - is still comfortably ahead.

No-one is going to ride to the rescue of the Palestinians in the USA. The choice you get as a US voter is how much you want the president to rein in Israel's worst excesses, and the best favour you can do the Palestinians is trying to stop the guy more apt to think about Gaza as Israel's latest exciting beachfront property development prospect.
Well as I've gotten older I've determined that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results so while it's ultimately a futile gesture in the end, I'm going to vote for someone who isn't going to just keep giving Israel a blank check to do whatever the fuck they want to do.
 
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Dirty Hipsters

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"Processing the nomination" isn't an issue at all, because nothing was official beforehand. You can argue that undermining the primary system is an issue, though-- and you'd kinda have a point.
You aren't wrong, but I think that it can be argued that the people who voted for Biden were voting for the Biden-Harris ticket, with the understanding that if anything happened to Biden, Harris would be the president, so Biden stepping down isn't exactly disenfranchising them and isn't undermining the primary system. There's like a 50-50 chance Biden would have died of old age in office during a second term anyway.

Frankly, I think most of the people voting for Biden would vote for a pet rock or a corpse over voting for Trump, so it almost doesn't matter who is actually on the democratic ticket.

Just because someone says something has no claim to the 1st amendment doesn't make it true. Where's the case/challenge to the say gay marriage that was fear mongered to happen after Roe? Are you legitimately concerned that republicans are gonna ban porn?
There's a challenge to Obergefell happening right now.


Kim Davis, the infamous Kentucky county clerk who refused to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples nearly a decade ago following the Supreme Court ruling making marriage equality the law throughout the U.S., filed a legal challenge against fees she has to pay because of her refusal to comply with the law.

In doing so, Davis’s lawyers argue that Obergefell v. Hodges, the Supreme Court ruling in question, was made in error. They’re seeking to have the fees she owes tossed, and the decision recognizing marriage equality similarly reversed.

Obergefell was narrowly decided in 2015 in a 5-4 decision acknowledging that several states’ laws were discriminatory and violated the 14th Amendment of the Constitution. Far right conservatives have sought to challenge that ruling ever since...

The legal challenge portrays Davis as being “one of the first victims” of the Obergefell decision. It seeks to have that ruling re-examined, to determine whether the “right to marry for same-sex couples…instantly overrode the constitutional right to religious accommodation under federal and state law.”

Notably, the challenge from Davis cites the concurring opinion authored by Justice Clarence Thomas in 2022’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health ruling, which upended nearly half a century of abortion protections in the U.S. Thomas wrote that the Court’s decision in that case didn’t go far enough, and that cases protecting birth control access, the right of LGBTQ people to be free from persecution for engaging in consensual sex, and the ability for same-sex couples to wed, should be reexamined by the conservative Supreme Court.

Citing Thomas’s concurring opinion, Davis’s challenge states that, “‘because the Due Process Clause does not secure any substantive rights, it does not secure a right to [same-sex marriage],’ and especially not a right to receive a same-sex marriage license from a specific government official, regardless of that individual’s religious convictions.”

Davis’s challenge concludes that this is a “unique opportunity” to “revisit” the Obergefell decision — claiming that it should be overturned partly because acceptance of LGBTQ people “was not grounded in the nation’s history or traditions,” a bizarre standard that conservatives on the Supreme Court created to justify ending protections for reproductive rights.
 
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Asita

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I understand but disagree with @Agema : resigning and letting Harris take over would have so many positives. I think it mostly ego of Bidens and just a little more time for the family to make some of that sweet sweet influence peddling money. One legit benefit: If Harris took the gig now, I think that would count as her 1st term, allowing her only one more. As it is, maybe they believe she can get 2. In that time, I'd think they'd be able to get the USSC firmly on the left again.
Um...no. You're thinking of Section 1 of the 22nd Amendment, which does not say what you seem to think it does. Here's the text:

No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. But this article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this article was proposed by the Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.
Note the 2+ year requirement. In order for the 22nd Amendment to apply to a VP turned President, they'd have to have served in the role for more than half of their predecessor's term of office. Ie, the earliest that someone can "term out" of eligibility for the Presidency is if they have already been in the role for 6 years. If Biden were to resign today, Harris would serve only 179 days (roughly 6 months) between now and January 20, which is obviously nowhere near the 2 year threshold that would make it count as a term of office.
 

Seanchaidh

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They didn't exactly react quickly when it happened, didn't even notice the guy getting up with his shoe in his hand, nor tried to get the pres out of there asap.
ok. it's just a guy throwing his shoes, though. any reaction quick enough to prevent the second throw would be an overreaction.
 

Agema

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That being said, I wont deny people in porn have problems, but I don't think they would be without these problems if the porn career hadn't been there. Being a bad person linked to the porn industry doesn't inheretly make the porn industry the cause of that problem.
What you are perhaps missing here is that a key aspect of the porn industry is exploitation.

Thus the porn career might not be the source of a person's problems, but there's a high likelihod the porn industry exploited their problems to get them a career in it.
 

Seanchaidh

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What you are perhaps missing here is that a key aspect of the porn industry is exploitation.

Thus the porn career might not be the source of a person's problems, but there's a high likelihod the porn industry exploited their problems to get them a career in it.
so it's a job in a capitalist economy
 

gorfias

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Um...no. You're thinking of Section 1 of the 22nd Amendment, which does not say what you seem to think it does. Here's the text:



Note the 2+ year requirement. In order for the 22nd Amendment to apply to a VP turned President, they'd have to have served in the role for more than half of their predecessor's term of office. Ie, the earliest that someone can "term out" of eligibility for the Presidency is if they have already been in the role for 6 years. If Biden were to resign today, Harris would serve only 179 days (roughly 6 months) between now and January 20, which is obviously nowhere near the 2 year threshold that would make it count as a term of office.
Thanks! So they don't even have that positive to explain why they haven't had Biden retire and allow her to enter this race as an incumbent that can demonstrate that she didn't blow up the world on day one.

All joking aside, Biden is not fit to remain our President (if he was ever fit). And our adversaries around the world seem to know that. Regardless of what I think (and it isn't good) about Kamala, I think she is mentally sound enough to finish this term.

ITMT: Candace Owens states Project 2025 isn't all bad:

 

Hades

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All joking aside, Biden is not fit to remain our President (if he was ever fit).
Problem with that argument is that the same Biden that apparently was never fit is the same Biden that's got a pretty objectively successful reign.

ITMT: Candace Owens states Project 2025 isn't all bad:
Even if we were to agree all those things are good then someone should point out to Owens that you can achieve those things without overthrowing democracy.
 

gorfias

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Problem with that argument is that the same Biden that apparently was never fit is the same Biden that's got a pretty objectively successful reign.
If Trump wins in 2024, I'd think that a rebuke of that assertion. I think the professional historians rank Biden as 14th best POTUS so far and Trump way down there but polling of actual people suggest otherwise. Reminds me of Star Wars The Acolyte getting 85% Fresh from the critics, 15% Rotten from the fans.
Even if we were to agree all those things are good then someone should point out to Owens that you can achieve those things without overthrowing democracy.
Says someone apparently supporting the party that hasn't had a straight forward primary since maybe Bill Clinton. And now with Kamala, someone that didn't even face a primary challenger and get a single ordinary citizen's vote for herself, will be that party's Presidential candidate. Not really feeling the pro-democracy vibes coming from that direction.
 

Bedinsis

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Allan Lichtman has streamed how he predicts the election will go based on his 13 keys:


At the 27th minute he has filled it out entirely.

Irrespective of his prediction the best way to affect change is to vote, so those able to do so with a preference in the election I encourage to vote.
 

Hades

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If Trump wins in 2024, I'd think that a rebuke of that assertion. I think the professional historians rank Biden as 14th best POTUS so far and Trump way down there but polling of actual people suggest otherwise. Reminds me of Star Wars The Acolyte getting 85% Fresh from the critics, 15% Rotten from the fans.
Trump is among the few president who never had the support of the American population. Never did he poll above 50%, nor was he ever elected by the American public instead of the college. So the people would not suggest otherwise.

Its also not really a rebuke. Churchill for example was not awarded with a second term despite leading Britain through the war. Good governments have lost elections before.

Says someone apparently supporting the party that hasn't had a straight forward primary since maybe Bill Clinton.
Okay. Doesn't change the fact that its the other party trying to dismantle democracy, and already tried doing just that through a coup a few years back.
 

Thaluikhain

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Its also not really a rebuke. Churchill for example was not awarded with a second term despite leading Britain through the war. Good governments have lost elections before.
While Churchill was in charge of Britain during the war, that's not to say he was good at the job. And while he lost to Atlee, but was voted in later on.
 

Phoenixmgs

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Obscenity laws exist. They can be strengthened.

I don't keep up with all the court cases in the US. There was also fear mongering that Roe v. Wade might be overturned, and won't you know it, it was.

My greater concern is that they'll expand what constitutes porn, as outlined in the agenda. This in turn forcing a vague enough wording in legislation that people won't know if they legally can publish it, and therefore won't. And as I have already pointed out: they literally have brought it up on their agenda.
You can't stop adults from doing things unless those things are illegal. Sure, you can get in trouble for filming beastiality because that's illegal; it's the same for a movie, you can film killing an actual animal for example. You can't ban porn. Roe was gonna be overturned at some point, gay marriage is far far far far stronger. Instead of fear mongering it, the democrats could've just made an abortion law but they didn't in 50 years.

I'm concerned for the people who'll end up working in a completely unregulated industry.

In addition, if you ban porn you have to ensure that people don't consume it, how to achieve that? More surveillance and intrusions into the private life of average citizens, hooray.
Democrats were doing the stupid covid mandates that invaded your private life, kids couldn't even eat out at restaurants...

They believe pornography "is not a political Gordian knot inextricably binding up disparate claims about free speech, property rights, sexual liberation, and child welfare. It has no claim to First Amendment protection." Probably under a view that pornography necessarily fails the Miller Test.



From literally the first sentence of the quoted part: "Pornography, manifested today in the omnipresent propagation of transgender ideology"

So, what is the propagation of transgender ideology, and is it within range that you could stretch it to being openly trans in public? What about if you work with children (or merely happen to be in their presence in public), would it require you to stay closeted around them to avoid propagating transgender ideology?

This is like the thing where Florida starts going on about LGBT people being pedophile groomers, then starts going on about starting the death penalty for pedophiles and then acts like people being upset at Florida wanting to put people to death for being LGBT is a big stretch or an admission that they are in fact pedophiles rather than just applying the transitive property - you say want to kill X, you keep claiming Y are X, perhaps you want to kill Y and need an excuse?
Porn does not pass the Miller test. You can't tell people how to dress in public outside of covering up your private parts. And Florida isn't going to kill trans people due to classifying them as pedophiles. Are you guys seriously worrying about these things?
 

Phoenixmgs

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There's a challenge to Obergefell happening right now.

There's a federal marriage law anyway that would essentially make overturning that ruling to be rather pointless. Like if there was a federal abortion law before Roe was overturned, that would have made overturning Roe pointless.
 

Dirty Hipsters

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There's a federal marriage law anyway that would essentially make overturning that ruling to be rather pointless. Like if there was a federal abortion law before Roe was overturned, that would have made overturning Roe pointless.
Funny how quickly you went from "it's not happening" to "it doesn't matter."
 

Schadrach

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Sure, you can get in trouble for filming beastiality because that's illegal;
In the US this is a matter of state law. I'm actually in one of the few states where it isn't illegal, and it's not illegal indirectly because of gay rights. We used to have a "crimes against nature" type law that rendered various sorts of otherwise unrelated taboo sexual conduct illegal. This included but was not limited to LGBTQ stuff, and in support of gay rights we repealed it. And the bit about bestiality has just never been passed again in a new law, so technically it's legal here so long as what you are doing wouldn't otherwise also count as regular old animal abuse on it's own without.

You can't ban porn.
You can, it just requires finding that porn necessarily fails the Miller test and cracking down on "obscenity" because it isn't protected.

There's a federal marriage law anyway that would essentially make overturning that ruling to be rather pointless. Like if there was a federal abortion law before Roe was overturned, that would have made overturning Roe pointless.
You mean that law that was passed in response to Roe being overturned specifically to try to protect gay marriage from an attack on Obergefell?

For anything in Project 2025 that you expect SCOTUS to protect from happening, recall that several justices are either connected to the same organiztion that produced Project 2025 or are at least ideologically aligned with it. So, expecting them to go against what Project 2025 sggests feels less likely than the opposite.

That was a terrible pun, they should feel ashamed for it, and you should feel ashamed for repeating it.