US 2024 Presidential Election

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Silvanus

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Agema claimed that "virtually every reputable economist" can tell me the Trump tariffs are stupid. He provided no substantiation of this claim. He did no legwork. I reciprocated.
Hmm, probably because anyone who keeps up with the field is already aware, and its not a controversial statement. But anyway, what do you think would happen if you were to ask for substantiation or examples?

You'd get them. You wouldn't get a pissy "well I won't give you any because blah blah blah, so there!" kind of response.
 

Agema

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Oh, it's so lazy of me to dig into the data or read the actual laws and decisions myself, it would be so much more effort to repeat whatever the Guardian told me.
"Dig"? Your understanding is so primitive you never do more than brush away the topsoil.

Research counts for something. If we were to reverse the analogical topography, Newton said he reached so high by standing on the shoulders of giants - which makes you an acrophobic pygmy.
 

tstorm823

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Research counts for something.
Yes, it does, and then any respectable researcher publishes their methods and data so that we can dig into it ourselves. Government statistics are managed and tracked and published where we can dig into them.

That's not really what we are comparing though, is it? People making broad theoretical statements about what might happen without any data or observations isn't a question of research, its a question of theory that requires research to validate. Well, we are starting year two, there hasn't been rising inflation and the US economy is growing faster rather than slower, so perhaps you should stop giving such deference to the hypothetical experts that told you the opposite would happen.
You'd get them. You wouldn't get a pissy "well I won't give you any because blah blah blah, so there!" kind of response.
As stated, I don't care. And neither do you, since you decided to just ignore me name-dropping the famous Ivy League educated doctor of economics who personally pitched the idea of widespread reciprocal tariffs to Trump.
 

Silvanus

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As stated, I don't care.
Then don't make accusations you have no willingness or ability to back up.

And neither do you, since you decided to just ignore me name-dropping the famous Ivy League educated doctor of economics who personally pitched the idea of widespread reciprocal tariffs to Trump.
I mean, you name-dropped him in a way that didn't really make it clear why. But ok. This would be the Laffer who made absurdly optimistic (and long since fallen-apart) predictions about the 2017 tax plan.

And even he said that tariffs would lead to a downturn-- and predicated his support not on them remaining in place, but on the idea that Trump would secure deals that would then allow them to drop off.

He's fundamentally an advocate of free trade. Try again?
 

Agema

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That's not really what we are comparing though, is it? People making broad theoretical statements about what might happen without any data or observations isn't a question of research, its a question of theory that requires research to validate.
1) Most of the announced tariffs were never applied, and therefore such consequences of non-existent tariffs tend not to happen. And it's like you can't even remember that this has already been pointed out to you.

2) US inflation did in fact rise April-September 2025. Although what effect the tariffs that did get applied had on this can only be estimated.

3)
since you decided to just ignore me name-dropping the famous Ivy League educated doctor of economics who personally pitched the idea of widespread reciprocal tariffs to Trump
Arthur Laffer? You mean the guy who had this to say about Trump's 2025 tariffs?

Your foot might currently be lodged so deep in your mouth you'll need surgery to remove it. I guess reading what the media report might have its uses after all.
 

Phoenixmgs

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Title 8 USC 1229a (covering the Immigration and Nationality Act 1952):

"§1229a. Removal proceedings
(a) Proceeding
(1) In general
An immigration judge shall conduct proceedings for deciding the inadmissibility or deportability of an alien."


Prior to this, the judiciary was already the main branch concerned with deportability, though with much more discretion up to the AG. It was never "all within the executive branch".

The exceptions in which judicial review is not always necessary-- such as expedited removal-- were introduced in 1997. Though they have specific applicability criteria.
Immigration judges are in the executive branch... Immigration cases don't go through judicial courts.

Hearings in immigration court are conducted by immigration judges, who are employees of the Executive Office for Immigration Review in the DOJ.

Yes, a man sleeping on the floor for 2 days is very comparable to ICE shipping people off to a foreign torture prison in contravention of international law and judicial orders.

You absolute clown.



It was literally the first article that came up when I googled "Obama" and "sanctuary city." You could have taken literally 5 seconds to check if you were wrong before you started spouting bullshit.

The number of sanctuary cities actually grew during the Obama administration, but technically there's been formalized sanctuary cities since 1985, and some of them are in Republican states.

There's a list of sanctuary cities on Wikipedia which includes the year that they became sanctuary cities, quite a few were under Obama.


And yes, 90% of people do want immigration enforcement, they just don't want it to be done in the chaotic and intentionally cruel and violent way that the Trump administration is intent on doing it.

There's a reason that the vast majority of people aren't in support of the current ICE raids despite the majority of people being in support of immigration enforcement. It's almost like it's because the Trump administration is actively terrible at it.



You tell me, what's wrong with spuriously charging people with crimes they didn't commit and which they probably won't be found guilty of? The federal prosecutors who quit over this probably see something pretty wrong with it.



No, you started this discussion after ICE had already been illegally sending people to a foreign torture prison in contravention of international laws and court orders.

You started this discussion after ICE started illegally barring members of Congress from entering immigration detention facilities to prevent oversight. (This happened last year and a judge ruled just this week that yes, DHS broke the law when they refused those Congress members entry).

You started this discussion after the per capita deaths in Trump's ICE detention facilities last year was double the usual rate. (We did the math earlier in this thread.https://forums.escapistmagazine.com/threads/us-2024-presidential-election.288870/page-337#post-13365320)

You started this discussion after Alligator Alcatraz.

You started this discussion after Kavanaugh stops became a thing allowing federal agents to stop and detain people based purely on their perceived ethnicity.

There's plenty of reasons to protest ICE.
There was IIRC only 1 person that shouldn't have been deported El Salvador.

ICE wasn't dealing with constant protesters during Obama either... You do realize under the prior administration you had basically the most immigration since the 1850s (and that's not in sheer number either so not because there's just more people now, it's percentage based); what do you think will happen when you're doing what 90% of the population doesn't want? You're going to get an equal and opposite reaction. You all constantly blame the other party when your party is equally at fault for ignoring the laws beforehand. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

Then, what was the point of charging Rittenhouse? He's obviously didn't commit murder as there was literally video of every incident. At least Lemon arrest is a grey area whereas Ritttenhouse is as black and white as you can get.

You listed another thing that just happened very recently. I don't follow super closely to what ICE is doing because it's nearly as big an issue as you all make it out to be. There was very little reason to protest ICE months and months ago, and the protesting is literally the main reason for much of the issues with ICE. You all get on these soap boxes about very very very minor things and don't care about the big issues at all, and the big issues then never get fixed. Alligator Alcatraz is an example of you all claiming some bullshit that will never happened and it's existence proves you all wrong. You all said that Trump will just deport people and ignore court orders because he's a fascist dictator 🙄 but why build Alligator Alcatraz when you're just going to ignore laws and deport people? I don't have a problem in saying I like that ICE is doing ABC, but don't like they are doing XYZ. The original comment I'm responding to was that ICE should be abolished, which is asinine.

You're joking about the "Kavanaugh stops" right? Because that's beyond idiotic. If you're looking for a white/black/asian/mexican person, guess what is one of the physical traits you're looking for? That's just common fucking sense.
 
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Silvanus

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Immigration judges are in the executive branch... Immigration cases don't go through judicial courts.

Hearings in immigration court are conducted by immigration judges, who are employees of the Executive Office for Immigration Review in the DOJ.
Huh, I did not know that. The American system looks even more open to political abuse than I thought.
 

Schadrach

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Then, what was the point of charging Rittenhouse? He's obviously didn't commit murder as there was literally video of every incident.
Initially I was expecting him to get found guilty on the third shooting, right up until the guy he shot testified and said more or less the only thing he could have possibly said for it to count as self defense. Trying him for the other two was entirely about politics (not trying him would have caused riots, possibly not just local ones) - and despite the thoroughly filmed and very public trial you'll still have people make claims directly contradicted by the presented evidence.

If you're looking for a white/black/asian/mexican person, guess what is one of the physical traits you're looking for? That's just common fucking sense.
If you're hoping to catch illegals, arresting people for looking like they might be Hispanic and based on nothing else is just common fucking sense huh? That is after all how we ended up with ICE detaining Native Americans for not being white.
 

tstorm823

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Arthur Laffer? You mean the guy who had this to say about Trump's 2025 tariffs?

Your foot might currently be lodged so deep in your mouth you'll need surgery to remove it. I guess reading what the media report might have its uses after all.
I can only believe that you are setting me up to spike the ball in your face on purpose.

Your link is to an interview by a left-leaning news outlet in which he said he was "scared but hopeful", but from which they highlighted only the "scared" part. You are being manipulated by the deception of the media in this discussion.

Perhaps we should hear some of what he has to say from his own mouth:
"[Tariffs] have not weighed on inflation at all, and it shouldn't logically weigh on inflation either."
"We've never had inflation following a major increase in trade barriers."
"Tariffs do have lots of problems but they don't cause inflation, period. That silly, bad economics."

You really couldn't have set it up better, linking blatant media deception as your evidence for why I'm apparently ignorant, it just really sets up every single point I'm making in one blow.
 

Dirty Hipsters

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You all constantly blame the other party when your party is equally at fault for ignoring the laws beforehand. You can't have your cake and eat it too.
You still haven't provided any proof of that, it's something that you just keep stating when it isn't true.
 

Silvanus

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Perhaps we should hear some of what he has to say from his own mouth:
"[Tariffs] have not weighed on inflation at all, and it shouldn't logically weigh on inflation either."
"We've never had inflation following a major increase in trade barriers."
"Tariffs do have lots of problems but they don't cause inflation, period. That silly, bad economics."

You really couldn't have set it up better, linking blatant media deception as your evidence for why I'm apparently ignorant, it just really sets up every single point I'm making in one blow.
So he says they don't cause inflation. But the point in response to which you brought up Arthur Laffer wasn't just about whether tariffs cause inflation, was it? It was about whether Trump's approach to tariffs had been advantageous or not, and the question was whether you could find a reputable economist who thought they were a great idea.

And there we have Laffer saying they cause a lot of problems. Elsewhere also directly from Arthur Laffer we have:

"By raising tariffs, of course, you do collect more money per unit of import — that’s true. But it’s also true that you cause weakness in the economy and you lose revenues elsewhere in the system. The net effect is probably not very large either way".

"Tariffs cause hell with the economy. I don’t know exactly where President Trump thinks things should go. I don’t know where he’s going. I’m very hopeful that he’s going to get tariffs down substantially."

Hmm.
 
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tstorm823

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So he says they don't cause inflation. But the point in response to which you brought up Arthur Laffer wasn't just about whether tariffs cause inflation, was it? It was about whether Trump's approach to tariffs had been advantageous or not, and the question was whether you could find a reputable economist who thought they were a great idea.

And there we have Laffer saying they cause a lot of problems. Elsewhere also directly from Arthur Laffer we have:

"By raising tariffs, of course, you do collect more money per unit of import — that’s true. But it’s also true that you cause weakness in the economy and you lose revenues elsewhere in the system. The net effect is probably not very large either way".

"Tariffs cause hell with the economy. I don’t know exactly where President Trump thinks things should go. I don’t know where he’s going. I’m very hopeful that he’s going to get tariffs down substantially."

Hmm.
No, there were two points of contention, one broad and one narrow.

This began with: "Tariffs are bad for the economy, as everyone predicted they would be." This statement was made without basis. When asked for a basis, the response I got was all theoretical, no data at all demonstrating actual harm to the economy. Looking at the important numbers (not the stock market), one might reasonably say the net effect is probably not very large either way. If people want to believe tariffs have been bad for the economy, that's totally their prerogative, and perhaps even the truth, but it logically requires one of two things: either evidence that the economy got worse following tariffs, or the belief that the economy would be even better without them. If the evidence says that the economy is good at the moment, and you insist tariffs have been bad, you are implicitly saying the economy would be very good without tariffs. That was my initial point.

The narrow point about inflation started when I said they help fund the government. And to be fair, other than a very minor comment by Seanchaidh, that's more of an irritation outside of this site than from you guys specifically. Tons of people out in the world were predicting spikes in inflation from Trump's tariffs (hell, some still are, claiming the reckoning is just delayed), and that just is neither sound in theory nor in practice historically, nor has it played out that way this time either.

On top of that, we had people making predictions that Trump's immigration policy could cause a famine, but here we are with millions of fewer migrants, either through deportation or self-removal, and ~$250 billion in tax revenue from tariffs, and there's still plenty of food, and the US economy hasn't collapsed.

My point was never that there are no downsides to tariffs, that would be delusional, nor even that tariffs are an overall benefit, I certainly don't have the evidence or ability to strongly justify that claim. All I really want is for the doomers like Hades to have a moment of clarity, where they can look back on all their predictions and honestly say "well, I guess that didn't actually happen", instead of coming on here and insisting that it did with absolutely no supporting evidence whatsoever.
 

Hades

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Some people here say that democracy is in totally good hands under Trump. This despite Trimp already proving this not to be the case in 2020. But here we have Trump again acting like his 2020 self, saying he'll only accept the results ifn he wins, and that him losing automatically means there's fraud.

Oh and Banon has been on the record that he wants brownshirts at the voting booth
Trump says he will only accept the midterm results ‘if the elections are honest’ and again pushes to ‘nationalize’ voting | The Independent
 
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Silvanus

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No, there were two points of contention, one broad and one narrow.

This began with: "Tariffs are bad for the economy, as everyone predicted they would be." This statement was made without basis. When asked for a basis, the response I got was all theoretical, no data at all demonstrating actual harm to the economy. Looking at the important numbers (not the stock market), one might reasonably say the net effect is probably not very large either way. If people want to believe tariffs have been bad for the economy, that's totally their prerogative, and perhaps even the truth, but it logically requires one of two things: either evidence that the economy got worse following tariffs, or the belief that the economy would be even better without them. If the evidence says that the economy is good at the moment, and you insist tariffs have been bad, you are implicitly saying the economy would be very good without tariffs. That was my initial point.

The narrow point about inflation started when I said they help fund the government. And to be fair, other than a very minor comment by Seanchaidh, that's more of an irritation outside of this site than from you guys specifically. Tons of people out in the world were predicting spikes in inflation from Trump's tariffs (hell, some still are, claiming the reckoning is just delayed), and that just is neither sound in theory nor in practice historically, nor has it played out that way this time either

On top of that, we had people making predictions that Trump's immigration policy could cause a famine, but here we are with millions of fewer migrants, either through deportation or self-removal, and ~$250 billion in tax revenue from tariffs, and there's still plenty of food, and the US economy hasn't collapsed.

My point was never that there are no downsides to tariffs, that would be delusional, nor even that tariffs are an overall benefit, I certainly don't have the evidence or ability to strongly justify that claim. All I really want is for the doomers like Hades to have a moment of clarity, where they can look back on all their predictions and honestly say "well, I guess that didn't actually happen", instead of coming on here and insisting that it did with absolutely no supporting evidence whatsoever.
All of this is abstracting the conversation back to its broadest terms. But its not relevant to the specific contention we're trying to sort out here.

Agema implied that reputable economists across the board agree tariffs are largely deleterious. You accused him of being willing to ignore any who disagree, and cited Arthur Laffer as a proponent.

But Arthur Laffer is highly critical of tariffs. He may not think they cause inflation, but that wasn't at the root of this point. So Arthur Laffer absolutely does not substantiate your counterargument.
 
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tstorm823

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But Arthur Laffer is highly critical of tariffs. He may not think they cause inflation, but that wasn't at the root of this point. So Arthur Laffer absolutely does not substantiate your counterargument.
He was literally the person who advocated tariffs to Trump, he directly advised Trumps 2016 campaign. He did so because he's basically a free trade purist who thinks tariffs are bad, specifically tariffs against the US, and that by reciprocating the treatment the US received from other nations, it would pressure them into bilaterally lowering them overall. And the internet can sit around all they like and say "well, he couldn't go through with them all cause TACO, roflcopter!" all it wants, not only was that the plan from the beginning, it was Art Laffer's plan. We are still seeing headlines of Trump lowering or removing tariffs in response to concessions by other nations because that was always the plan. Why was that the plan? Because us having tariffs has some upsides and some downsides for us, but for the countries the tariffs are on, it's pure downside, much like their tariffs against us are pure downside for us.

Art wasn't scared of Trump's tariffs tanking the economy themselves, again "the net effect is probably not very large either way". He certainly wouldn't advocate for policy that just hurts America as a bargaining chip, that doesn't make any sense. Art was scared in April, because his plan was for countries to concede their tariffs and play ball with the US, and instead some were escalating protectionism, which is actually bad for the US economy, but that didn't last terribly long in most cases (With the exception of China, but there are good geopolitical and moral reasons not to collaborate with them anyway).
 

Silvanus

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He was literally the person who advocated tariffs to Trump, he directly advised Trumps 2016 campaign. He did so because he's basically a free trade purist who thinks tariffs are bad, specifically tariffs against the US, and that by reciprocating the treatment the US received from other nations, it would pressure them into bilaterally lowering them overall. And the internet can sit around all they like and say "well, he couldn't go through with them all cause TACO, roflcopter!" all it wants, not only was that the plan from the beginning, it was Art Laffer's plan.
Yet Trump's tariffs weren't reciprocal. They were levied on the basis of trade deficit, which was misrepresented as "tariffs" in that nonsense pitch he did, or on the basis of other political gripes; they were largely not mirroring existing tariffs against the US.