Where will the next war start?

[TheMatt]

It doesn't take a Bible thumper to tell you that Israel is the most probable candidate. We're broke and can't help them anymore and a lot of people have a bone to pick.

Israel really doesn't need your help anymore except for spare parts.

Remember the 6 day war? When Israel kicked the shit out of every Arab nation in less then a week?

Yah, I'll think they'll be ok.

 

[McClaud]

You will see a lot of "incidents" I suspect in the near future, but unless a radical change in government on either side i.e extremists, an actual war is out of the question, especially with the large bill attached to it.

Except the Pakistani government is in trouble, and there could very well be a radical change if the militants escalate their agenda. It all depends on who has their hands on Pakistan's nukes.

Two years ago, I wouldn't have thought they would go to war - the very least, I too believed that it would stay mostly to isolated conflicts around the Kashmir region. I've watched that area for years in the Air Force. But recent unrest and the present danger of terrorists focused on India, should India suspect that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal be in danger of ending up in the wrong hands, they could very well declare war and bomb Pakistan.

Whether or not the rest of the world is okay with it is another thing. Don't think for a second, though, that India will forgo action if nuclear weapons are involved. They'll strike first without waiting for the UN to approve anything.

Honestly, the next war will most likely NOT involve the US heavily. It will probably involve Russia, Israel or India, and possibly CHINA.

 

[Eipok Kruden]

On a giant all powerful space-monkey's ass. It will happen on a Thursday... and there will be lasers.

 

[Addendum_Forthcoming]

The next war will be Russia attempting to reclaim another one of their former surrogates. The next World War will be between The U.S, Japan and Turkey.

Bah .. somebody define the term of World War to me ... people keep on telling me World War 2 ended in '45 and started in '39 ... but obviously the people weho say this didn't live in China, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Borneo (The entire Island as in), Nigeria etc etc.

If a World War is merely a war(s) fought on many fronts and by many nations ... then due to the Middle East & Far East alone than wouldnt all North America, Australia, Britain, Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, Iraq etc etc already be in World War 3/4/5/6/7/10/78?

Not including existing conflicts/flashpoints like Lebanon/Israel where international UN units from many nations we're killed by Israeli rockets during the last skirmish against Lebanon when they decioded to attack that UN Command Post when the UN told Israel to stay the fuck out.

 

[L.B. Jeffries]

It doesn't take a Bible thumper to tell you that Israel is the most probable candidate. We're broke and can't help them anymore and a lot of people have a bone to pick.

Israel really doesn't need your help anymore except for spare parts.

Remember the 6 day war? When Israel kicked the shit out of every Arab nation in less then a week?

Yah, I'll think they'll be ok.

Uh, in 1997 total US Aid to Israel was 84 billion. I don't want to know what that figure is now.

http://www.wrmea.com/html/us_aid_to_israel.htm

Something tells me if we stop giving them money not everything is going to be hunky dory. Nor is the Israeli armies' habit of blowing up civilians, U.N. medical supplies, or food for refugees going to go over well with people. They would no doubt win the war, but I doubt the cost would be worth it.

 

[Goldbling]

I think it will be in one of the former Soviet states, like Kahzakstan or Georgia

 

[Goldbling]

Ireland. There will be a lot of talk about a Gaelic rebellion here in the UK, but until some way of getting weapons from ethnic Gaels in America becomes obvious then it will be difficult to actually start one, despite the influence of fanatics. But in Ireland there are militant groups that will become a lot more powerful with the amount of effort in increasing the status of Irish culture. Legitimate nationalist claims are very easily hijacked when a civil war has really only just ended, and when the militant groups that fought it were not destroyed.

I strongly doubt Ireland, England, Scotland and Wales together could start a significant war. We just plain lack the forces and manpower for anything less than defense. By rebellion though, I assume you mean Civil War. In which case, England and Ireland have seen enough violence for now, let someone else have a go

Im gonna say Switzerland. Villainous dogs with mountains of Nukes and a grudge against every country in the world for ridiculing them.

You do know theyre a compleatly nutral country right?
the Genivia convetions are help there...in the city of Genivia

 

[Simriel]

Belgium.

I laughed. Belgium? They're too nice!

But everyone will fight over it. Because they want to steal the name.

 

[Addendum_Forthcoming]

Israel: Ironically have turned into the new nazi's and are provoking alot of countries surrounding them

Mostly provoking them by 'existing' as history shows.

Blowing up a UN command Post after the UN told Israel to remove itself from Lebanon? Blowing up Medical Convoys and EMT Vehicles who were transporting injured civilians to makeshift medical camps because the local municipal hospitals had been targetted by Israeli Artillery.

Israel is hardly making any friends. And not simply because they are the 'new kid on the block' .... Indonesia managed to settle it's differences with highly disapproving neighbours after the 'Konfrontasi' of the 50's ... and it was birthed at the same time as Israel ... in a bloody expansionist campaign led by a zealous military commander ...

Israel has been using the anti-semitic excuse for 60 years ... the only reason why militants attacked Israelis is because A: Israel denied it's neighbours proper access to Holy sites which are spiritually important for Muslims AND Christians ... and B: because of Mossad agents and it's Military actively employing assassination, and in some cases, active genocide of entire communities.

And this isn't a new trend either for the Canaanites ... the reason why the Egyptians of lore persecuted the Canaanites is because the Canaanites did it to them 200 years beforehand (ref. Hyksos).

I agree, the blame does go both ways ... but Israel always ... always appears the aggressor. You take units like Hezbollah ... who actively support social services in the Middle East, such as vaccinations, food deployments, and help maintain democratic free elections in Lebanon ...

Israelis demonise them because they are very good at intercepting Mossad agents who cross into Lebanon's borders. half of the people Israel claims that 'Hezbollah Raided and captured military personnel' is a load of crock .. alot of the times the military personnel hezbollah units pick up are captured Israeli agents ... and instead of killing them ... they return them without a scratch after a couple of years in exchange for some of their own brethren ... despite having the 'Jus ad Bello' to kill them on the battlefield.

Even many Israelites are turning around and saying that what the Israeli military and Mossad are doing is seperatist and isolationist in the extreme, immoral and cruel to a point. Its kinda hard to judge in favour of Israel's foreign policy when so many 0of it's own people think of it's military operations as heartless and provocative.

 

[Simriel]

Belgium.

I laughed. Belgium? They're too nice!

Exactly what they want you to think...

YOU READ MY MIND!

 

[Raven_Letters]

You will see a lot of "incidents" I suspect in the near future, but unless a radical change in government on either side i.e extremists, an actual war is out of the question, especially with the large bill attached to it.

Except the Pakistani government is in trouble, and there could very well be a radical change if the militants escalate their agenda. It all depends on who has their hands on Pakistan's nukes.

Two years ago, I wouldn't have thought they would go to war - the very least, I too believed that it would stay mostly to isolated conflicts around the Kashmir region. I've watched that area for years in the Air Force. But recent unrest and the present danger of terrorists focused on India, should India suspect that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal be in danger of ending up in the wrong hands, they could very well declare war and bomb Pakistan.

Whether or not the rest of the world is okay with it is another thing. Don't think for a second, though, that India will forgo action if nuclear weapons are involved. They'll strike first without waiting for the UN to approve anything.

Honestly, the next war will most likely NOT involve the US heavily. It will probably involve Russia, Israel or India, and possibly CHINA.

There are a few issues with your theory.

While the government in Pakistan is not stable by any means, there are specific and potent forces within Pakistan that will not allow the formation of a "Talebanized" government, namely the Army and the ISI - despite being the primary supporters of the Taliban. A Taleban / Salafist regime would mean the end of the Military's role in control of a truly vast industrial complex [http://www.opendemocracy.net/globalization-india_pakistan/pakistan_military_4519.jsp]. The military controls either directly or indirectly the majority of Pakistan's heavy industry, ancillary industries and a substantial portion of real estate. Pakistan is not so much as state with an army, as an army with a state. The current situation has made the upper echelons of the Pakistani military extremely rich, and a Salafist regime would be an anathema to them. The likelihood is far greater that Pakistan will once more regress to a Military government before it becomes a Salafist one, which; while being a de jure supporter of radical Islamic groups will make sure that they remain beholden to the Military.

Secondly, the whole notion of India bombing Pakistan is remote to say the least. Nevermind international condemnation, you forget India and Pakistan are neighbors. The fallout from a nuclear strike would leave India reaping a substantial amount of the radiation, even if that the Pakistanis do not reciprocate in a retaliatory strike.

Thirdly, the security protocols of the Nuclear stockpile makes it extremely difficult [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/10/AR2007111001684.html?sid=ST2007111001833] for a radical regime to get hold of a fully operational and deployable nuclear device - even without resistance.

Fourthly, despite whatever else Pakistan is not Afghanistan or one of the Arab despotisms. The Pakistani public are actually not all that happy about the possibility of Salafist rule, given that a Salafist or Taleban regime would enact changes that would directly come into conflict with a majority of the Pakistanis on economic, social and cultural lines. ( This is too long to explain here, but I will be happy to elaborate should you wish it)

 

[nova18]

Ireland. There will be a lot of talk about a Gaelic rebellion here in the UK, but until some way of getting weapons from ethnic Gaels in America becomes obvious then it will be difficult to actually start one, despite the influence of fanatics. But in Ireland there are militant groups that will become a lot more powerful with the amount of effort in increasing the status of Irish culture. Legitimate nationalist claims are very easily hijacked when a civil war has really only just ended, and when the militant groups that fought it were not destroyed.

I strongly doubt Ireland, England, Scotland and Wales together could start a significant war. We just plain lack the forces and manpower for anything less than defense. By rebellion though, I assume you mean Civil War. In which case, England and Ireland have seen enough violence for now, let someone else have a go

Im gonna say Switzerland. Villainous dogs with mountains of Nukes and a grudge against every country in the world for ridiculing them.

You do know theyre a compleatly nutral country right?
the Genivia convetions are help there...in the city of Genivia

Forget it, the humour has been lost.
NO, I dont think Switzerland will start a war, because its SWITZERLAND.

My honest answer will be "Who knows", war itself is inconsistent, we can go from PEACE to WAR overnight in drastic cases.

 

[Goldbling]

Ireland. There will be a lot of talk about a Gaelic rebellion here in the UK, but until some way of getting weapons from ethnic Gaels in America becomes obvious then it will be difficult to actually start one, despite the influence of fanatics. But in Ireland there are militant groups that will become a lot more powerful with the amount of effort in increasing the status of Irish culture. Legitimate nationalist claims are very easily hijacked when a civil war has really only just ended, and when the militant groups that fought it were not destroyed.

I strongly doubt Ireland, England, Scotland and Wales together could start a significant war. We just plain lack the forces and manpower for anything less than defense. By rebellion though, I assume you mean Civil War. In which case, England and Ireland have seen enough violence for now, let someone else have a go

Im gonna say Switzerland. Villainous dogs with mountains of Nukes and a grudge against every country in the world for ridiculing them.

You do know theyre a compleatly nutral country right?
the Genivia convetions are help there...in the city of Genivia

Forget it, the humour has been lost.
NO, I dont think Switzerland will start a war, because its SWITZERLAND.

My honest answer will be "Who knows", war itself is inconsistent, we can go from PEACE to WAR overnight in drastic cases.

... sorry

 

[Danny Ocean]

I say either the middle east (because they're not having a good time), Russia (They're turning into MASSIVE a-holes, I think they're turning communist again), or china (Because they behave like a-holes from time to time as well).

Again here. The assumption that Russia will attack every1 if communism comes there its kinda retarded

That's not what I said. I think you missed some quote code by mistake, but please don't misquote my posts.

 

[Spicy meatball]

It's all ridiculous. Saying that Russia will attack because it's becoming a communist country again is like saying China will invade the US because they owe them lots of money. World wars of these scale is not feasible. This has nothing to do with the current economic climate but the the long term effects. War costs lots of money, for upkeep and expenditure. It's been said that world war won't be declare because ever country now is interconnected but more than that world war won't happen because no one can afford a war that scale. All what is likely is civil unrest and small scale warfare. Tiny incursions into other territories, playing a hit and run game for resources.

Which brings me to my point that the next war/unrest is not going to be over weapons or words. It's resources. With 6 billion people something is going to give first, us or the environment.

 

[new_age_reject]

Things are really stabilising at the moment with a new and unpredictable American President plus this global recession, no one has the capital - financial or political - to risk a war. Politicians are under immense pressure from their economies, a war is a complication they don't need. Even in dictatorial regimes, the political effects are strong.

World War 2 was started in the middle of a worldwide depression. I don't think the economic issues will be what prevents the next war.

Well I think with a new world war being very much different to WWII, the costs will be so much greater so I think a depression will have slightly more bearing on the situation.
Of course the depression around at the time of WWII was partly caused by WWI, so everything is very different now.

 

[neoman10]

Germany...It's alway Germany...

or Russia, they seem to be getting a little angry at...everything lately

 

[Papopapo456]

I think South America, there has been some important diplomatic troubles between Chile (where I live) and Peru - Bolivia (both are claiming territories lost in the Pacific War).

Also, most Chileans don't like Peruvians or Bolivians (it's like British and French).

 

[Bluntknife]

Belgium.

I laughed. Belgium? They're too nice!

Nice? have you had a Belgium waffle?
They are way too tasty, they're fattening us up. Making us weak.
And when the time is right they will cut off the waffle supply driving us into a depression and they will invade when we have no energy because we won't be drinking 3L of syrup a day!

 

[JoshasorousRex]

In Canada where we will send our whole army of two troops in our really crappy helicopter (what is it called again?)