Ukraine

[Silvanus]

Ukraine and Russia agreed a temporary, localised ceasefire around a corridor leading out of Mariupol, for the evacuation of civilians.

Russia broke it in less than a day, shelling the civilian evacuation route.

Mariupol evacuation postponed as Russia accused of breaking ceasefire

City council asks residents to return to shelters and wait for further information

www.theguardian.com

 

[Seanchaidh]

you bizarrely inferred that somehow meant we would end up funding a neo-Nazi insurgency

It has literally been proposed/planned by multiple influential people in the United States, including former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO James Stavridis, various Biden administration officials, Atlantic Council flunkies, etc.. There is nothing "bizarre" about this potentiality. It is also precisely what the United States has done in many other countries-- even ones that haven't been invaded by someone else.

Love it. Can also apply directly to the Russian war machine, the difference being that the war machine kills a massively larger number of people.

Are you quite sure about that math? But yes, broadly you are correct to make the connection because sanctions are little different from warfare.

In any case, it's not a competition; I guess unless this (satire) is your idea of effective policy.

 

[Seanchaidh]

Ukraine and Russia agreed a temporary, localised ceasefire around a corridor leading out of Mariupol, for the evacuation of civilians.

Russia broke it in less than a day, shelling the civilian evacuation route.

Mariupol evacuation postponed as Russia accused of breaking ceasefire

City council asks residents to return to shelters and wait for further information

www.theguardian.com

There have been reports of Azov Battalion ambush and killing of evacuees from specifically Mariupol since before that agreement. I wonder whether that contributes to explaining what is going on there.

 

[Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)]

Putin threatens Ukraine with loss of statehood

Roman Petrenko – Saturday, 5 March 2022, 15:23

www.pravda.com.ua

"How dare you fight back when I'm attempting to rob you. IM GOING TO KILL YOU IF YOU DON'T STOP!"

 

[Satinavian]

It's a relevant response to say that inference is nonsense, and we could just observe international legal agreements instead. Regional powers (which Russia has also threatened) form defensive treaties with Ukraine, NATO doesn't get involved, no counter-factual insurgencies required. There are legal and proportionate methods of fighting imperialist invasions like this.

Forget this "regional power" nonsense. The only thing, regional powers threatened by Russia would consider is joining NATO, but certainly not to get themself involved in a war where even NATO is not brave enough to engage.

Without NATO, no one will help Ukraine.

 

[Agema]

"How dare you fight back when I'm attempting to rob you. IM GOING TO KILL YOU IF YOU DON'T STOP!"

What on earth is he talking about, threatening "loss of statehood"?

a) He's already repudiated their existence as a nation, b) his pre-war demands were a de facto denial of self-determination and statehood, and c) if Russia really wants to commit itself to governing a hostile land in perpetuity... does it not remember how that went in Afghanistan?

 

[Dalisclock]

c) if Russia really wants to commit itself to governing a hostile land in perpetuity... does it not remember how that went in Afghanistan?

Both times......One for the US and one for the USSR. It ended badly both times.

I swear, nobody ever seems to learn anything.

 

[Thaluikhain]

Both times......One for the US and one for the USSR. It ended badly both times.

The US president that went into Afghanistan in his first term got a second term. Not so sure it ended badly, from a certain point of view.

 

[Seanchaidh]

The US president that went into Afghanistan in his first term got a second term. Not so sure it ended badly, from a certain point of view.

By the time that legally prohibited third term would come around, though...

 

[Satinavian]

What on earth is he talking about, threatening "loss of statehood"?

a) He's already repudiated their existence as a nation, b) his pre-war demands were a de facto denial of self-determination and statehood, and c) if Russia really wants to commit itself to governing a hostile land in perpetuity... does it not remember how that went in Afghanistan?

Obviously he meant, if they fight back, he will go for full annexation instead of puppet regime.

 

[ObsidianJones]

Gee. It's so interesting that a bunch of influencers have been caught re-reading from the same script. It's so far outside the playbook, I'm surprised it's never happened before!!!

 

[Thaluikhain]

By the time that legally prohibited third term would come around, though...

Someone else's problem, and you can even blame his successor (most likely from the other party, the way things have gone until then) for not dealing "properly" with the mess. It can't fail.

Alternatively, you can compare budgets for the military before and after, profits to arms manufacturers, even PMCs if you like (though the military budget was decreased again later on). Everyone (who counts) is a winner.

 

[Agema]

Obviously he meant, if they fight back, he will go for full annexation instead of puppet regime.

All the better if that will mean Russians have to police Ukraine instead of Ukrainians, as that means they'll be taking the casualties in case of resistance.

Both times......One for the US and one for the USSR. It ended badly both times.

I swear, nobody ever seems to learn anything.

Third, if we include the UK in the mid-19th century. Although admittedly, that was little more than a modest-sized garrison in Kabul (run by one of the most famously incompetent generals in British history).

 

[Thaluikhain]

Totally random and useless bit of trivia, but the Iskander missiles used by Russia are named after Alexander the Great, who actually did conquer bits of Afghanistan (which was under Persia rule at the time), and from whom (it is widely believed) we get the name Kandahar.

 

[Silvanus]

It has literally been proposed/planned by multiple influential people in the United States, including former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO James Stavridis, various Biden administration officials, Atlantic Council flunkies, etc.. There is nothing "bizarre" about this potentiality. It is also precisely what the United States has done in many other countries-- even ones that haven't been invaded by someone else.

It's bizarre that you would infer that I'm supporting that plan. That's what's bizarre. I didn't say anything about it, but you acted as if that was the logical conclusion to what I had said.

It's just a method of conflating and dismissing all other approaches.

Are you quite sure about that math? But yes, broadly you are correct to make the connection because sanctions are little different from warfare.

Hah, okay, sure. The sanctions on Belarussian oligarchs' overseas holdings killed many thousands of people, did they?

 

[SilentPony]

So if 16,000 ""volunteer"" US military personal are officially going to Ukraine to fight after 1 week of fighting, I wonder what the unofficial number was last month.

 

[Seanchaidh]

Hah, okay, sure. The sanctions on Belarussian oligarchs' overseas holdings killed many thousands of people, did they?

I've read estimates on the impact of sanctions on Venezuela to be in the tens of thousands of deaths.

It's bizarre that you would infer that I'm supporting that plan. That's what's bizarre. I didn't say anything about it, but you acted as if that was the logical conclusion to what I had said.

It's just a method of conflating and dismissing all other approaches.

Not everything is about you.

So we'll just see the same thing happen later and, if our strategy works as well as intended, Kiev will look like Grozny or Baghdad or Belgrade after they were destroyed by bombing, and we'll be arming a neo-Nazi insurgency because apparently the Afghan mujahideen weren't odious enough.

 

[Trunkage]

The US president that went into Afghanistan in his first term got a second term. Not so sure it ended badly, from a certain point of view.

Don't you Obi-Wan me, you hear

(Just want to be clear, your certain point of view makes way more sense than Obi's)

 

[Trunkage]

Totally random and useless bit of trivia, but the Iskander missiles used by Russia are named after Alexander the Great, who actually did conquer bits of Afghanistan (which was under Persia rule at the time), and from whom (it is widely believed) we get the name Kandahar.

I mean, the US, British and Russian did conquer Afghanistan... just not permanently

 

[Agema]

I mean, the US, British and Russian did conquer Afghanistan... just not permanently

The Soviets never conquered Afghanistan: they were invited in by the then Afghan government (Communists almost wholly dependent on the USSR in the first place) to maintain order and keep themselves in power.