Ukraine

[Silvanus]

SNIP

SNIP

Really excellent work, you two. Puns really are my cup of tea, and I'm just glad you didn't make a meal of it.

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Pentagon sees Russia starting to reposition under 20% of forces around Kyiv

Russia has started to reposition under 20% of the forces arrayed around Ukraine's capital Kyiv, the Pentagon said on Wednesday, but cautioned Russia was expected to refit and resupply them for redeployment into Ukraine, and not bring the forces home.

www.reuters.com

So, Russia announced a major deescalation around Kyiv and Chernihiv two days ago. Various Western figures, including Blinken, said it wasn't credible.

Apparently about a fifth of ground troops in that area are indeed being repositioned/ shifted away, though time will tell if its deescalation or just regrouping. Notably, Russia continued to shell both cities throughout the entire night after they made the announcement.

 

[Agema]

Don't you feel like that's just a rhetorical glitch though? Without droning on about specifics like I usually do, the difference between an insurance-based health financing system and a government run insurance-based health financing system is not actually that stark. The difference between a government run health-financing system and a communist utopia where nothing is financed and healthcare is free is a lot bigger gap. That we would call the latter 2 options both "socialized healthcare" isn't really a strong connection when you consider the nuts and bolts of it.

Depends what we mean. The UK has a system paid directly by tax and the heavy majority of services provided by the public sector. The Netherlands buys everyone insurance out of taxation, but the providers are heavily private. The USA has a weird, half-way, hybrid system, that (whilst better than its forerunner) still manages to leave a substantial chunk of the population with low or no coverage and huge inequalities in provision, a huge degree of private, and which in certain ways facilitates outrageous burdens on unlucky individuals - for instance, the well-noted issue with insulin costs. Thus although on one hand you can argue that the Dutch system is like the American system in various technical aspects, in the ways that really matter as a functioning socialised healthcare system it's much closer to the British.

When we get to communists, the communist dream of a superabundant society where everything is free and money scrapped is not on the table. In fact it's not even got on the train to get to the city and building that the table is in. It's a discussion that means effectively nothing for our practical reality. Whilst that is the case, a communist is simply going to back the same concept of socialised healthcare shared by the centre and moderate left.

 

[Agema]

Apparently about a fifth of ground troops in that area are indeed being repositioned/ shifted away, though time will tell if its deescalation or just regrouping. Notably, Russia continued to shell both cities throughout the entire night after they made the announcement.

This looks like not a withdrawal, but switching to a defensive posture in order to concentrate forces for offensive action elsewhere.

I think Ukraine still has a very substantial proportion of its forces around the Donbas. If Russian forces cut them off it could compel their surrender and potentially win the war. Even merely threatening to cut them off could force them to withdraw, which might allow Russia to seize both oblasts and claim a major achievement.

However, at this juncture, it is not clear to me how Russia expects to win anything at all - why it is going to succeed in that when it has failed at so much and performed so poorly already? It's not like they've only sent in the chaff and now it's time for the real pros to step up. In fact, I would not be surprised if large chunks of the Russian high command know that the victory that the Putin desires is all but unachievable, but no-one's able or willing to get that through to the Russian president.

 

[Generals]

And it seems Russia is actually recruiting quite a few Syrians. But not because said Syrians want to help Russia but instead mainly because the already bad Syrian economic situation with the rising costs due to the war in Ukraine makes them desperate for the money offered by Russia:

Ukraine war: The Syrians signing up to fight for Russia

Recruits are being offered thousands of dollars to be deployed on the front line in Ukraine.

www.bbc.com

 

[tstorm823]

Whilst that is the case, a communist is simply going to back the same concept of socialised healthcare shared by the centre and moderate left.

You'd think that, but it is not uncommon for communists on the internet to take such bizarre positions as "I hope it gets even more privatized and unequal so as to more rapidly spur anti-capitalist uprisings". Do you think that's beneath someone who defends invasions and genocides so long as they're performed by adversaries to the US?

To bring in an example specific to this forum, probably my greatest success at getting people to realize their differences was insisting to a moderate left user here that people wanted to abolish the police when they said "defund", and a handful of people going "yup, we do", and then I didn't have to say a word for a dozen pages of argument because the moderates were basically arguing my position for me. It really didn't occur to that user that people saying "defund the police" weren't in general agreement.

 

[Satinavian]

However, at this juncture, it is not clear to me how Russia expects to win anything at all - why it is going to succeed in that when it has failed at so much and performed so poorly already? It's not like they've only sent in the chaff and now it's time for the real pros to step up. In fact, I would not be surprised if large chunks of the Russian high command know that the victory that the Putin desires is all but unachievable, but no-one's able or willing to get that through to the Russian president.

I think they just kinda hope for a miracle, that Ukraine runs out of supplies and reserves before they do. The embargos are hard on the Russian economy, but the war and having a quater of the population on the run is certainly much harder on the Ukrainian economy. I believe they have given up on regime change but still believe they can get the full Donbass, a binding neutrality of the Ukraine without any western guarantees and the acceptance of the Crimea as Russian.

And honestly, no one wants to admit losing. It would not be the first war dragging on longer than it has to. Hope is a strong force.

 

[Hades]

You'd think that, but it is not uncommon for communists on the internet to take such bizarre positions as "I hope it gets even more privatized and unequal so as to more rapidly spur anti-capitalist uprisings".

I'm not sure it really is a bizarre position. Capitalism going too far and destroying itself is a communist hope as old as Marx. And pretty much every political leaning hopes its rivals self destruct. You have more activist leftists desperately hoping for a Trump victory in order to legitimize the democracy which they hoped would lead to their own faction rising from the left's ashes. On the other end anti communists also hoped for atrocities and poverty in communist countries so they'd collapse.

 

[tstorm823]

I'm not sure it really is a bizarre position. Capitalism going too far and destroying itself is a communist hope as old as Marx. And pretty much every political leaning hopes its rivals self destruct. You have more activist leftists desperately hoping for a Trump victory in order to legitimize the democracy which they hoped would lead to their own faction rising from the left's ashes. On the other end anti communists also hoped for atrocities and poverty in communist countries so they'd collapse.

I personally can't even imagine being so high on the smell of my own farts as to wish suffering and atrocity on people because they don't subscribe to my preferred political systems.

 

[PsychedelicDiamond]

I'm not sure it really is a bizarre position. Capitalism going too far and destroying itself is a communist hope as old as Marx. And pretty much every political leaning hopes its rivals self destruct. You have more activist leftists desperately hoping for a Trump victory in order to legitimize the democracy which they hoped would lead to their own faction rising from the left's ashes. On the other end anti communists also hoped for atrocities and poverty in communist countries so they'd collapse.

Accelarationsism is a real thing, but it doesn't actually mean "Supporting bad things will eventually lead to good things" as a lot of people seem to think it does.

 

[Hades]

I personally can't even imagine being so high on the smell of my own farts as to wish suffering and atrocity on people because they don't subscribe to my preferred political systems.

And yet its quite common. Just recently one political side was grumbling because their leader ''wasn't hurting the people he was supposed to be hurting''. Other examples being Europeans being a tad gleeful about the drawbacks of Brexit, discriminatory laws based purely on who people sleep with or identify as, or people delighting about the shortages in Russia because it puts pressure on Vladimir.

 

[Avnger]

Accelarationsism is a real thing, but it doesn't actually mean "Supporting bad things will eventually lead to good things" as a lot of people seem to think it does.

Of course not.

It's much closer to:

1. Support (or at least don't fight against) policies that actively make life worse for everyone
2. Society begins to break down
3***. Vanguardists (who currently do nothing of substance other than online slacktivism) lead a revolution when everyone magically throws away their existing beliefs and bows down to the vanguardists' innately superior beliefs
4. Communist utopia

*** This step may as well just be "????" for how inane it actually is

 

[Generals]

or people delighting about the shortages in Russia because it puts pressure on Vladimir.

Because they want to save Ukrainians who are being bombed... This is more about causing moderate harm to prevent severe harm. It's like amputating an infected limb instead of letting someone die.
I really don't think that was an appropriate example.

 

[Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)]

Don't know if this is actually true but uhh, big blunder if so.

And this is why setting up a base in Chernobyl is a terrible idea. Granted they probably didn't think war would take this long but even keeping that in mind this was still an awful idea.

 

[The Rogue Wolf]

Don't know if this is actually true but uhh, big blunder if so.

Jesus Christ. The only way someone could be more stupid would be to use the Elephant's Foot as an actual footrest.

 

[Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)]

snip

sorry to quote you again but...

https://kiev.segodnya.ua/kiev/kother/obluchayut-sami-sebya-okkupanty-royut-okopy-v-ryzhem-lesu-vozle-chaes-1610709.html

They were digging up irradiated soil
Let me repeat that...
They were digging up irradiated soil

Russians hand control of Chornobyl nuclear plant back to Ukraine, IAEA says

The IAEA added that it "has not been able to confirm reports of Russian forces receiving high doses of radiation while being in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone."

www.cnbc.com

You know, I wonder why they left /s

 

[Satinavian]

Well, at least it explains why half of Europe measured hightened radioactivity after they took Chernobyl while at the same time everyone stated that nothing dangerous had happened at the plant. Digging up the Red Wood would indeed do that, yes.

Now there are reports from plant workers that the Russian soldiers coming there had never been informed that this was Chernobyl, only that this was "critical infrastructure". And those camping outside probably dug themself in the way they usually do when taking defensive positions.

 

[Generals]

Now there are reports from plant workers that the Russian soldiers coming there had never been informed that this was Chernobyl, only that this was "critical infrastructure". And those camping outside probably dug themself in the way they usually do when taking defensive positions.

And they wonder why Morale is low...

 

[Silvanus]

* The Governor of Chernihiv has said that he is indeed seeing significant withdrawal of Russian forces from the area.

* There has been an explosion at a fuel depot inside Russia, at Belgorod. The Russian foreign ministry has said it was targeted by a Ukrainian helicopter raid. If true, this would be the first target on Russian territory to be struck, which is a major development.

Ukraine denies attacking fuel depot inside Russia, mayor says fire almost out

Russia accused Ukraine of carrying out an air strike against a fuel depot in the Russian city of Belgorod on Friday, an incident the Kremlin said could affect peace talks, but a top Kyiv security official denied responsibility.

www.reuters.com

Nobody was killed. Nonetheless, this strikes me as... not promising. Putin will feel like he needs to be able to portray the operation as a success before he's able to withdraw or deescalate, in order to avoid political embarrassment. This makes that more difficult.

But on the other hand, fuel depots being used to resupply and relaunch ongoing invasion efforts are "traditionally" fair targets in wartime. If it serves to make an extended Russian military presence in Ukraine more unfeasible, as they cannot get the fuel they need to stay on the move, then perhaps it serves its purpose.

Now there are reports from plant workers that the Russian soldiers coming there had never been informed that this was Chernobyl, only that this was "critical infrastructure". And those camping outside probably dug themself in the way they usually do when taking defensive positions.

Wouldn't be surprising, considering the Russian military leadership kept its own personnel in the dark about the reasons they were massing for the "drills". They treat their own soldiers with utter contempt.

 

[The Rogue Wolf]

* The Governor of Chernihiv has said that he is indeed seeing significant withdrawal of Russian forces from the area.

* There has been an explosion at a fuel depot inside Russia, at Belgorod. The Russian foreign ministry has said it was targeted by a Ukrainian helicopter raid. If true, this would be the first target on Russian territory to be struck, which is a major development.

Ukraine denies attacking fuel depot inside Russia, mayor says fire almost out

Russia accused Ukraine of carrying out an air strike against a fuel depot in the Russian city of Belgorod on Friday, an incident the Kremlin said could affect peace talks, but a top Kyiv security official denied responsibility.

www.reuters.com

"...an incident the Kremlin said set an unfavorable tone for peace talks with Kyiv."

"Yeah, look, maybe we've been shelling schools and hospitals and wiping out entire neighborhoods, but you blew up a legitimate military target. That's just not on!"

 

[Silvanus]

"...an incident the Kremlin said set an unfavorable tone for peace talks with Kyiv."

"Yeah, look, maybe we've been shelling schools and hospitals and wiping out entire neighborhoods, but you blew up a legitimate military target. That's just not on!"

It's certainly true that it would be a gross double standard for Russia to consider this a breaking point.

I only mean to say that Russia's government is the party in this that actually needs to be convinced to end hostility. And saving face is unfortunately likely to be quite a major factor in their decision-making process.

People die for the protection of political ego quite frequently, I'm afraid.