Mar-A-Lago Raid

Silvanus

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It's not really going to be dissolved, though, is it?

At the bare minimum, if the paper entity of the "Trump Organization" is dissolved, it's still Donald Trump's property and a new paper entity will take things over, in a thoroughly plus ca change sort of way. And Trump can be nominally banned from running it, but that will mean he'll just get a catspaw to sign everything off anyway. That said, the Trump Organization might actually do better without Trump running it, as years of financial releases have suggested.
Perhaps. But this is a man obsessed with legacy and image. I think it'd come as quite a blow in those regards to lose control of his own father's business and a prestigious part of his inheritance, and for it to be a matter of public record that he's not worth as much as he pretended.
 
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BrawlMan

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Perhaps. But this is a man obsessed with legacy and image. I think it'd come as quite a blow in those regards to lose control of his own father's business and a prestigious part of his inheritance, and for it to be a matter of public record that he's not worth as much as he pretended.
The best kind of cruel mercy.
 
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SilentPony

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It's not really going to be dissolved, though, is it?

At the bare minimum, if the paper entity of the "Trump Organization" is dissolved, it's still Donald Trump's property and a new paper entity will take things over, in a thoroughly plus ca change sort of way. And Trump can be nominally banned from running it, but that will mean he'll just get a catspaw to sign everything off anyway. That said, the Trump Organization might actually do better without Trump running it, as years of financial releases have suggested.
It really depends on how much debt the Trump org is in. That was the key to the case against the Trump Org. When it was time to pay taxes, MaraLago was worth $18 million. When it came time to secure loans, and they had to show their assets up as collateral against the loan, MaraLago was worth $1 billion+. So depending on the terms of those bank loans, those banks are going to start seizing assets like Tyranids devouring a world - any biomass and red cent to get back their money. The golf courses, Maralago, the cars, the jet, its all owned by the Trump Org and all fair game to be seized.
Granted this is another 20+ years worth of litigation. This is what Baron will be dealing with his adult life.
But this does end with the dissolution of the Trump Org and the seizing and selling of the majority of its assets.
 
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Ag3ma

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It really depends on how much debt the Trump org is in. That was the key to the case against the Trump Org. When it was time to pay taxes, MaraLago was worth $18 million. When it came time to secure loans, and they had to show their assets up as collateral against the loan, MaraLago was worth $1 billion+. So depending on the terms of those bank loans, those banks are going to start seizing assets like Tyranids devouring a world - any biomass and red cent to get back their money. The golf courses, Maralago, the cars, the jet, its all owned by the Trump Org and all fair game to be seized.
Granted this is another 20+ years worth of litigation. This is what Baron will be dealing with his adult life.
But this does end with the dissolution of the Trump Org and the seizing and selling of the majority of its assets.
Generally, major financial institutions have refused to deal with Trump since the 1990s. The reason for this is that Trump kept refusing to pay them their loans back and forcing them to go to court to recover their money, in an attempt to cause them so many problems that they'd accept a write-down. Deutche Bank is well known to have still lent him money, but Deutsche Bank forced the end of their business relationship last year by threatening default, with Trump selling a property and taking on a large loan to clear the loan. Even there it's worth noting rumours certain divisions of DB had blacklisted Trump, and that the last major loan he got from DB was controversial within the company, even to the point of the banker who agreed it being seen as going rogue.

Trump's two major creditors, as far as I can see, are Ladder Capital and Axos Bank, both of which are relatively modest operations (because no major institutions will deal with him). As far as I can see, he owes Ladder and Axos about $200-250 million apiece. Plus there may be a load of debt packaged and distributed in creative ways such that it may be hard to find someone to claim it back, plus allegedly numerous hidden investors. However, one way or another any or all may not demand default, even if Trump lied about his wealth to secure the loan. As long as they think he can and will repay them, there's no compelling reason to rock the boat.

Even with recent revelations, Forbes puts Trump's net wealth at ~$2.5 billion - but net worth includes debts. So even if his creditors swarm in demanding defaults, and even if he's fined $250 million by NY, he's still very comfortably a billionaire. It'd be a chastening experience (well, apart from the fact Trump can't feel humility), for sure.

Next, see:

Trump may actually be sitting on enough liquidity to pay off a lot of defaults outright, or alternatively can probably restructure his finances to transfer the debt elsewhere. Okay, we can argue that at this stage probably no-one should be lending Trump money given his history of fraud, but I can't help but point out Ladder and Axos. Someone, somewhere, is going to see the risk as an opportunity.
 

Ag3ma

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"If I keep pouring money into this dumpster fire, eventually it's going to start spitting out more money."
If that dumpster fire is a potential next president of the USA who has an appetite for corruption and rewarding loyalty, the rewards if it pans out might be very high indeed.
 

Ag3ma

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Of course, whilst we're on deeply corrupt politicians, Democrat Bob Menendez is a doozy. I mean, actual gold bars and pockets stuffed with cash: what the hell?

Whilst yet to be proven in court, it looks excruciatingly bad. The fact that a significant number of his colleagues have called for his resignation also speaks volumes.
 

Chimpzy

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Of course, whilst we're on deeply corrupt politicians, Democrat Bob Menendez is a doozy. I mean, actual gold bars and pockets stuffed with cash: what the hell?

Whilst yet to be proven in court, it looks excruciatingly bad. The fact that a significant number of his colleagues have called for his resignation also speaks volumes.
If going into politics required job applications, I'm pretty sure having a record for fraud, bribery or other such white collar crime would be a credential.
 
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Absent

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If going into politics required job applications, I'm pretty sure having a record for fraud, bribery or other such white collar crime would be a credential.
It's pretty much the case, as it's seen as being cunning and anti-state (therefore "for the small guy") : the electoral popularity of Trump, Berlusconi, etc... benefit(ted) from their crooked reputation.
 

Ag3ma

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If going into politics required job applications, I'm pretty sure having a record for fraud, bribery or other such white collar crime would be a credential.
Menendez also has a long and inglorious history of alleged bribery and misealings going back decades, just nothing has ever properly stuck. (I am pretty sure he got a Congressional rebuke back in the day, though.)

Let's say someone commits a crime in front of 20 witnesses. That person is probably going to go down under the weight of witness testimony. If someone commits 20 of that type of crime with one witness each, they may remain free because those crimes are assessed individually and none individually have enough evidence to convict.

In science, we have things like meta-analysis: take a number of pieces of individually weak data and sum them together into strong data. Outside the letter of the law, I would argue that someone who has faced repeated significant accusations of a certain type of crime has with high probability committed at least one of them. Bob Menendez's history suggests to me it is very likely he is as bent as a seven dollar note even if not convicted. The point comes where "but nothing has been proven" should cease to hold much water with a political party or voters choosing their representatives.
 

tstorm823

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Of course, whilst we're on deeply corrupt politicians, Democrat Bob Menendez is a doozy. I mean, actual gold bars and pockets stuffed with cash: what the hell?

Whilst yet to be proven in court, it looks excruciatingly bad. The fact that a significant number of his colleagues have called for his resignation also speaks volumes.
The crazier thing is that he already got away with it once. He was charged with similar offenses almost a decade ago, and it ended in a mistrial because they couldn't get a unanimous decision from the jury, but then he kept doing it! What is the mindset of someone who takes bribes to mess with foreign affairs, almost gets the book thrown at him, gets away by the skin of his teeth, but then keeps doing it. He did it, he got away with it, he was set for life, he didn't need any more money, and then he kept accepting gold bars from people anyway. That's beyond greed and corruption, it's gotta be some kind of neurosis.
 

Ag3ma

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That's beyond greed and corruption, it's gotta be some kind of neurosis.
One thing that comes through very clearly is that generally when someone in later career is caught doing something wrong, thorough investigation will reveal they have a long history of poor behaviour leading up to the transgression that finally gets them caught. That's why healthcare courses hammer professionalism very hard, because an awful lot of misconduct cases show those individuals had behavioural and attitude deficits as a student and in early career, too.

I think people can realise the error of their ways and change. However, this usually requires active intervention rather than magically hoping they will see the light. Getting caught and "convicted" is, of course, one form of intervention. Evading any meaningful cost may in some cases provide an opposite attitude, that they can get away with it or even are untouchable. And some people probably never will change, it's thoroughly pathological.
 

The Rogue Wolf

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Sidney Powell and Kenneth Chesebro have both pleaded guilty to different election interference charges and are likely to be called to testify against Trump.


Either of them could be seriously dangerous to both Trump and Rudy Giuliani, and this could spark a domino effect of guilty pleas and agreements to testify.
 

tstorm823

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Sidney Powell and Kenneth Chesebro have both pleaded guilty to different election interference charges and are likely to be called to testify against Trump.


Either of them could be seriously dangerous to both Trump and Rudy Giuliani, and this could spark a domino effect of guilty pleas and agreements to testify.
I don't think this is indicative of anything. The terms of their plea deals are basically "apologize to Georgia, testify truthfully if asked, and don't talk to anyone else indicted til then", so no punishment whatsoever. Chesebro had previously turned down a plea deal that had the same terms plus $10,000 fine. They couldn't even get a nominal fine across the finish line in one of the biggest criminal cases in the nation.
 

Silvanus

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I don't think this is indicative of anything. The terms of their plea deals are basically "apologize to Georgia, testify truthfully if asked, and don't talk to anyone else indicted til then", so no punishment whatsoever. Chesebro had previously turned down a plea deal that had the same terms plus $10,000 fine. They couldn't even get a nominal fine across the finish line in one of the biggest criminal cases in the nation.
Powell's plea deal includes $6k fine and 6 years probation. But that's not really important: prosecutors aren't interested in heavily punishing the stooges.

Do you think there's nothing meaningful in the fact that they've agreed to testify against Trump if asked? The importance of this is in building the bigger case. Defendants willing to admit guilt and turn on co-defendants is a huge step in that regard.
 
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Silvanus

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They've agreed to testfiy. "Testify against" is presuming something unstated.
You believe they would admit their own guilt, and then testify to protect their former boss, for whose sole benefit they committed the misdemeanors?

You sure believe a lot of Trump's employees committed a lot of illegal stuff on behalf of Trump, but without any knowledge or involvement from their boss. I wonder why they all took it upon themselves to do such things for him? Y'know, since he never wanted them to. It's just so odd!
 

tstorm823

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You believe they would admit their own guilt, and then testify to protect their former boss, for whose sole benefit they committed the misdemeanors?

You sure believe a lot of Trump's employees committed a lot of illegal stuff on behalf of Trump, but without any knowledge or involvement from their boss. I wonder why they all took it upon themselves to do such things for him? Y'know, since he never wanted them to. It's just so odd!
It is a known flaw of the US justice system that a guilty plea doesn't necessarily indicate guilt. It is a strategic decision, that accepting the terms presented by the prosecutor is preferable to dragging out the court case and risking conviction. That is why the lack of punishment is relevant. We don't actually know if they think themselves guilty, all we know is that they think writing an apology and testifying in someone else's trial is better than going through their own.

I believe they have literal incentives to plead guilty. I believe those incentives won't dictate how they testify, they can only be compelled to testify truthfully, whatever that happens to be. You are choosing to believe their guilty pleas are indicative of genuine guilt, and that any testimony that doesn't condemn Trump would be to protect him, but it is entirely possible for their honest testimony to not actually help convict Trump.
 

Satinavian

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I believe they have literal incentives to plead guilty. I believe those incentives won't dictate how they testify, they can only be compelled to testify truthfully, whatever that happens to be. You are choosing to believe their guilty pleas are indicative of genuine guilt, and that any testimony that doesn't condemn Trump would be to protect him, but it is entirely possible for their honest testimony to not actually help convict Trump.
But the only reason they were even offered that plea deal was because
a) the prosecutors are convinced their honest testimony will help convict Trump
b) the prosecutors have enough proof to get them for perjury if they renege on the deal and don't help convict Trump.