Of course. But it's certainly worth clarifying. Anti-vaxxers often conflate vaccines with diseases, in order to argue that vaccines causing the same issues as diseases is to be expected. It's not and they don't.
No, I've never relied on the
total population for any of these risk rates.
For the myocarditis risk from the vaccine, I'm using the numbers provided in
your original link, which originate in the report in
Nature. That's where we get the 5 excess events per million from, from which we get 0.0005%. It is specifically
within the group who had that specific vaccine, not the entire population.
You quoted 0.3% as the proportion ending up with a hospitalisation from covid, no? And 2% of hospitalised patients had arrhythmia. Which brings us to 0.006%.
How exactly is 0.006 smaller than 0.0005%?
Background: This study aims to evaluate waning effectiveness against severe and fatal COVID-19 with two to three doses of CoronaVac/BNT162b2, where data are limited. Methods: A case–control study included individuals aged ≥18 years, unvaccinated or ...
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
What I find funny when you quote Paul Offit, is how out-of-step you are with what he says. He's not saying there that immunity doesn't wane, or that boosters do nothing; he's recommending against a policy mandate.
But what has he been clear on? He recommends vaccinating young kids; he recommends masking, and masked even after being vaccinated; he supported a mandate; he's clear that vaccine-related myocarditis is a much lower risk than the disease...
Paul Offit: The myocarditis associated with the viral infection or a myocarditis associated with this MIS-C, this post-infectious phenomenon, is
more severe than is the myocarditis associated with a vaccine. So there are never risk free choices. There are just choices to take different risks.
And I think here, clearly, the choice is to get a vaccine, which is the lesser risk.