Democrats already proposing austerity before DNC even ends

[lil devils x]

I think this strategy is going to end up like the last two election cycles.

but that isn't into account mid terms..

US mid-term election results 2018: Maps, charts and analysis

Interactive maps and charts showing winners and losers in all the Senate, House and governor races.

www.bbc.com

 

[Eacaraxe]

Meanwhile, evidence continues mounting that a campaign that ultimately stands for nothing, for which the closest thing to a mission statement being literally Warren G. Harding's campaign slogan, and the candidate of which has promised no legislation and no change (repeatedly), has every intent of fulfilling its campaign promises.

The ones behind closed doors to donors, anyhow. Not the ones you or I hear coming out of the public appearances, pressers, or platform.

 

[Agema]

Meanwhile, evidence continues mounting that a campaign that ultimately stands for nothing, for which the closest thing to a mission statement being literally Warren G. Harding's campaign slogan, and the candidate of which has promised no legislation and no change (repeatedly), has every intent of fulfilling its campaign promises.

The ones behind closed doors to donors, anyhow. Not the ones you or I hear coming out of the public appearances, pressers, or platform.

Doesn't really matter. Trump will probably win anyway.

 

[Seanchaidh]

Doesn't really matter. Trump will probably win anyway.

This is part of why he'll win.

 

[SupahEwok]

This is part of why he'll win.

A Brit who doesn't have a vote in the election being defeatist is the key to Trump's victory?

Damn, we didn't throw enough tea in the harbor, THEY STILL HAVE TOO MUCH POWER

 

[Agema]

This is part of why he'll win.

It's more about where votes go in swing states, and where states have unequal electoral college representation.

The polls are incredibly, remarkably stable. The lack of movement over time between Biden and Trump is probably unprecedented, and it would probably take an incredible screw up by Biden to change that (because we know by now Trump can screw up routinely and his supporters won't care). Biden is almost certainly going to win the public vote handsomely.

 

[Seanchaidh]

A Brit who doesn't have a vote in the election being defeatist is the key to Trump's victory?

Damn, we didn't throw enough tea in the harbor, THEY STILL HAVE TOO MUCH POWER

No, the fact that Biden is pushing the same failed America Is Already Great BS that didn't work in 2016.

It's more about where votes go in swing states, and where states have unequal electoral college representation.

The polls are incredibly, remarkably stable. The lack of movement over time between Biden and Trump is probably unprecedented, and it would probably take an incredible screw up by Biden to change that (because we know by now Trump can screw up routinely and his supporters won't care). Biden is almost certainly going to win the public vote handsomely.

"Don't underestimate Joe's ability to fuck things up" -Barack Obama

He's been getting a bunch of free passes from the media for various things, but I expect that either won't last or it won't be enough.

 

[Specter Von Baren]

No, the fact that Biden is pushing the same failed America Is Already Great BS that didn't work in 2016.

"Don't underestimate Joe's ability to fuck things up" -Barack Obama

He's been getting a bunch of free passes from the media for various things, but I expect that either won't last or it won't be enough.

His debate with Trump will probably be his biggest opportunity to fuck up.

 

[Seanchaidh]

His debate with Trump will probably be his biggest opportunity to fuck up.

Which is why Nancy Pelosi has been saying he shouldn't debate him. Which would be damaging in itself.

Democrats really ought to be petrified at the unprecedented nature of Joe Biden's trajectory over the course of the primary. In the places which candidates had the most opportunity to do retail politics in (the first four) he was barely on the radar. And then the media leveraged a win in South Carolina into a narrative about inevitability and general Black support compared to Sanders (which wasn't really supported by data). He then won a three way race with Elizabeth Warren spoiling the other candidate which was again misrepresented by the mainstream media. The rest of the contests (and some of those already mentioned) were held with COVID hanging over everything. And on top of that, Sanders let Biden get away with lying and misrepresenting his record. So Biden has been rather spectacularly untested by the primary process and is an extraordinarily weak general election candidate as a result. Brain worms have infected the Democratic Party and caused them to decide that hard primaries are bad rather than good, and those brain worms may just be terminal.

 

[Eacaraxe]

It's more about where votes go in swing states, and where states have unequal electoral college representation.

No.

If Biden loses this, it won't be because of "muh Russia", "muh mail", "muh 'lectoral collij", "muh Bernie Bros", or any other pregenerated boilerplate excuse Democrats can and already have wound up. You can guarantee if an excuse for losing comes out of a Democratic strategist's mouth, it's the complete opposite of a true and impartial summation of how the election went down.

It'll be because of shit like embracing the Rick Snyder endorsement in a critical swing state and bellwether, when Biden's already under fire for free trade support. It'll be because his campaign and party actively rejected policy positions supported by nine-tenths of his own party's voters. It'll be because of his highly questionable statements on race during the campaign. It'll be because of running on increasing police funding in the greatest period of racial unrest since...frankly at this point, the Civil War itself. It'll be because Democrats put all their eggs in one basket -- beating Bernie -- and then decided to re-litigate 2016 as their 2020 campaign strategy.

 

[Eacaraxe]

His debate with Trump will probably be his biggest opportunity to fuck up.

Nah that wouldn't be the biggest potential fuck-up of 2020. Putting Harris on the debate stage with Pence would be.

 

[Agema]

No, the fact that Biden is pushing the same failed America Is Already Great BS that didn't work in 2016.

No.

Between September 2019 and April 2020, Biden ranged between +4 and +12 against Trump. In the same period, Sanders ranged +2 to +9 against Trump.

At face value, this doesn't look great. Sanders would lose centreist voters to Trump that Biden would take, and then hope to make it up through the wonders of a massive yoof turnout. Ah, the amazing, elusive, youth turnout: a dice roll, in other words.

 

[Eacaraxe]

Between September 2019 and April 2020, Biden ranged between +4 and +12 against Trump. In the same period, Sanders ranged +2 to +9 against Trump.

At face value, this doesn't look great. Sanders would lose centreist voters to Trump that Biden would take, and then hope to make it up through the wonders of a massive yoof turnout. Ah, the amazing, elusive, youth turnout: a dice roll, in other words.

Not one word of which is relevant because Sanders is not the nominee. No "but Bernie!" for you. Biden is the nominee, deal with it.

 

[Seanchaidh]

Between September 2019 and April 2020, Biden ranged between +4 and +12 against Trump.

He also won a lot of voters who prioritize healthcare as their most important issue and want Medicare For All because lots of voters think Biden is in favor of M4A. It's tempting to read support for Biden as something other than Obama afterglow, but it's not. And the more people get to know him, the worse he does. The Democratic Convention coincided with a loss of support.

At face value, this doesn't look great. Sanders would lose centreist voters to Trump that Biden would take, and then hope to make it up through the wonders of a massive yoof turnout. Ah, the amazing, elusive, youth turnout: a dice roll, in other words.

What even is a centrist voter? If Sanders would lose, it's because the media is hostile to him, not anything to do with policy.

 

[Agema]

Not one word of which is relevant because Sanders is not the nominee. No "but Bernie!" for you. Biden is the nominee, deal with it.

That's disingenuous. You and I both know the underlying message of the criticisms levelled at Biden is "It should have been Bernie".

 

[Eacaraxe]

What even is a centrist voter?

Creatures that have more in common with the Easter Bunny or Santa Claus, that neocons bait Democrats into believing actually exist and are ready to start voting Democratic...over the guy with 90% approval among Republicans.

That's disingenuous. You and I both know the underlying message of the criticisms levelled at Biden is "It should have been Bernie".

You can call it whatever you damn well please, Biden's still the nominee and Biden has to win or lose on his own strengths or weaknesses as a candidate. "Not Bernie" and "not Trump" don't fly this year. No excuses this year, which is what you're trying to make.

 

[lil devils x]

His debate with Trump will probably be his biggest opportunity to fuck up.

Every time Trump opens his mouth these days he can't help but go on about some blatant lie or conspiracy though. I would think Trump would do worse in debates than Biden. Trump couldn't even get through his fox interview without talking about shadow people on planes that control the streets... he is always going off about some stupid conspiracy or some crap he just made up at the time.

Have you been actually listening to what Trump has been saying? LOL

 

[Dwarvenhobble]

No.

If Biden loses this, it won't be because of "muh Russia", "muh mail", "muh 'lectoral collij", "muh Bernie Bros", or any other pregenerated boilerplate excuse Democrats can and already have wound up. You can guarantee if an excuse for losing comes out of a Democratic strategist's mouth, it's the complete opposite of a true and impartial summation of how the election went down.

It'll be because of shit like embracing the Rick Snyder endorsement in a critical swing state and bellwether, when Biden's already under fire for free trade support. It'll be because his campaign and party actively rejected policy positions supported by nine-tenths of his own party's voters. It'll be because of his highly questionable statements on race during the campaign. It'll be because of running on increasing police funding in the greatest period of racial unrest since...frankly at this point, the Civil War itself. It'll be because Democrats put all their eggs in one basket -- beating Bernie -- and then decided to re-litigate 2016 as their 2020 campaign strategy.

It will.

They're too dug in to accept their ideas might not be popular and their approach is bad. They'll blame something I dunno maybe the "Deep State" now being claimed to be infiltrated and occupied by Trump supporters or something.

Who knows maybe they'll blame Coronavirus and people being self isolating (mostly in democrat controlled cities) or major outbreaks (also happening in democrat controlled cities) as reasons people couldn't vote as strongly or something.

 

[lil devils x]

Creatures that have more in common with the Easter Bunny or Santa Claus, that neocons bait Democrats into believing actually exist and are ready to start voting Democratic...over the guy with 90% approval among Republicans.

According to our recent data on Independents:

"First, if the election were held today, overall Biden would lead Trump by ten points, 48 percent to 38 percent. While Biden’s support increased daily during the Democratic convention and for two days after, Trump’s support fluctuated during the Republican convention, increasing after the first day, dipping after the second, then rising and spiking after Trump’s speech. Comparing the results of the first six days with the results of the last five, there was some overall change — from 39 percent for Trump and 48 percent for Biden after the first period, to 37 percent and 50 percent, respectively, after the second period. The most notable change was among independents: from 16 percent to 14 percent for Trump, and from 31 to 39 percent for Biden, between the first and second periods.

Second, Democrats appear more motivated to vote, with 85 percent saying they are very motivated compared to 80 percent among Republicans, with little change from one convention to the next.

Third, Trump is the most important factor in vote choice for all segments, both for and against. Overall, 39 percent of respondents said a vote against Trump and his agenda was most important, while 25 percent cited a vote to support Trump and his agenda. This compares with 27 percent who say the most important factor is agreeing with a candidate’s policies, 7 percent who prioritize the Supreme Court, and 2 percent who prioritize party loyalty. There was little change in these priorities from the first period to the second."

Movement where it matters: a post-conventions shift with independents

All in all, the results suggest no significant change among partisans.

thehill.com

The biggest issue with Democrats reaching the target audience necessary to win the districts required to win the electoral votes needed to actually win here is that they are required to target baby boomers and conservative learning voters in order to get enough votes in those regions to do so. They simply cannot win those districts without them.

Go ahead and do the math. Show the district that democrats have to flip to be able to win the presidency and look at WHO those districts actually elect here. If progressives ignore the data from those districts, we are guaranteed a loss.

 

[Specter Von Baren]

Every time Trump opens his mouth these days he can't help but go on about some blatant lie or conspiracy though. I would think Trump would do worse in debates than Biden. Trump couldn't even get through his fox interview without talking about shadow people on planes that control the streets... he is always going off about some stupid conspiracy or some crap he just made up at the time.

Have you been actually listening to what Trump has been saying? LOL

Have you been listening to what Biden has been saying?

"We have this notion that somehow if you’re poor, you cannot do it. Poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.”