Biden v. Trump Election Mega Thread

[Dwarvenhobble]

Yes, exactly. That was a crappy, baseless claim about Obama that he shouldn't have had to continue acknowledging, and it didn't matter if Obama refuted it time and time again because the association was made no matter how he responded. Trump was crappy to do that, and that criticism of Trump is entirely justified.

Trump supporting white supremacists is a baseless claim, his refutations are ignored, and the claims continue because the association sticks anyway. The people making those claims are crappy and should be criticized. They are very similar situations.

Pretty much this.

It's the bit of mud that people deem to have been thrown and stuck most so they have no other real attacks left so rely on that. It's like some-one having been accused of beating their wife and no matter the evidence, no matter how many times they deny it people who have an axe to grind keep asking "So have you stopped beating your wife yet" every time. It's not about honesty it's about trying to associate them constantly with something nasty in the public consciousness and use a Kafka Trap esc method to claim the more condemnation there is the more evidence said condemnation is of their guilt.

People who stick with the "Trump was behind in the polls last time too, the polls are wrong!"
Understand in 2016, America was fighting among its own parties and generally filled with apathy and complacency cause "trump could never actually win"
2020 America has seen trump can win, hasn't split their party with infighting and wants him out.

It's more divided than ever because of Harris who lets be honest having the woman known for throwing people in Jail for marijuana possession who laughs when asked if she has done it herself and won't answer. Well it's not great. She known to be very pro cop like possibly more than Trump and Co. The lack of healthcare for all or even just a basic concession towards that too isn't helping the democrats.

In 2016 the Democrat party was split in two.

In 2020 The democrat party is split into like 5

I didn't see anything this year that compared to the schism between the clinton and bernie supporters.

Obviously the primaries are all about competing with each other.

It's been more death by smaller cuts this year than one big cut.

Which is worse because as evidence keeps showing Bernie supporters mostly did suck it up and vote for Hillary yet the BS narrative still exists that Bernie supporters cost Hillary the win.

Concerning the mail-in ballots Trump does have a point that it's potentially very fraudulent. It could delay the outcome of the election for months and might necessitate the supreme court to make a decision which is damaging to democratic legitimacy. No justice should decide over this. Espescially with elections as controversial as this one. I also never understood how some districts weigh heavier than others and why college votes are a thing instead of the candidate with the majority votes as it should be in a democracy. But it is what it is I guess.

Even discounting the Project Veritas claims of absentee vote collection for cash there are things like this happening already

Feds, In Unusual Statement, Announce They're Investigating A Few Discarded Ballots

Federal authorities say they've been asked to look into the discovery of some mailed ballots in Pennsylvania, an announcement that has appalled former Justice Department officials and voting experts.

www.npr.org

Nope. The final set of polls last time put Clinton about 3% up at the end. Her winning margin on the popular vote was 2.1%, so the polls were pretty good. She lost because she lost a load of key battlegrounds states by very tight margins (~1% or under).

Biden is ~7% up nationally. If the polls are similarly accurate to 2016, then Trump needs to get that down to at least 4% just to have a shot of keeping the presidency. Bear in mind there are also a load of individual state polls, and these reinforce the apparent national picture. In a lot of these key battleground states he won by very small margins in 2016, Trump is about 5% down. Voters seem to already be extremely locked in, hence the incredible stability of the polls: Biden's been consistently about 6-8% for months and months, with very few spikes or troughs.

The current picture looks extremely grim for Trump. There's still lots that can happen, of course.

1) Those were the final poll at about this stage last time Hillary was claimed to be up to 20 points clear or something,

2) National polls don't give the best indication of how the election will go when it's fought on states and in the present pandemic it's far easier still to collect data in cities than travel round in rural parts.

3) Biden hasn't really changed much in a lot of the battleground states or worse the rustbelt.

 

[Dwarvenhobble]

But he never actually does it. He's specifically prompted to do so and he doesn't do it. Read the transcript:

No because the moderator can't name a group for him to condemn.

 

[Elijin]

How is that any different from "Trump couldn't possibly win a second time"?

It absolutely isn't. That's the point. People are scared of the fact he COULD win a second time, and that will get people to vote who were apathetic or nursing their clinton/sanders resentments. The fact that there is no clear winner.

 

[Schadrach]

Except Trump can't stop interrupting.

They should have muted his mic when he wasn't supposed to be speaking, like he was a corporate-unfriendly Democrat running against Biden in the primary.

"Consensus is that Trump dominated... And turned off undecided voters in the process"

Makes sense - if the debate were a contest of dominance then Trump won, simply by being loud and obnoxious. If it were about presenting meaningful policy positions or making any kind of coherent point, then Trump lost badly and Biden was merely kind of "meh."

People who stick with the "Trump was behind in the polls last time too, the polls are wrong!"
Understand in 2016, America was fighting among its own parties and generally filled with apathy and complacency cause "trump could never actually win"
2020 America has seen trump can win, hasn't split their party with infighting and wants him out.

More accurately, Trump won in 2016 out of sheer hatred for Hillary Clinton.
Everyone is hoping that in 2020 Biden will win out of sheer fear of more Donald Trump.

Which is worse because as evidence keeps showing Bernie supporters mostly did suck it up and vote for Hillary yet the BS narrative still exists that Bernie supporters cost Hillary the win.

To be fair, Hillary seemed to blame anyone who didn't uncritically support her for costing her the win. Remember her outright saying that the Green candidate was a Russian agent and Tulsi Gabbard was as well?

 

[happyninja42]

Well I'm sure they're loving the fact a recent special adviser to Obama said if the Democrats didn't win they'd be calling for a break up of the union with blue states breaking away from Red States to form their own independent country.

They probably are, but it's not like the other side hasn't been talking for decades about how better off they'd be without all the damn liberals with their sinful ways. Trust me the red states are just as happy, and have probably been humping that particular separatist fantasy for FAR longer than the blues. I think more blues are coming around to that mindset at least as a pipe dream expression of frustration, and more prone to expressing it publicly.

I've lived in Alabama my whole life, and I promise you the "if you don't like it leave" mentality has been around for at least the last 40+ years that I've been alive, and it's most definitely had a conservative christian flavor to it. The difference that I see, is that the reds have actually been preparing for that shit, at least on the small, individual scale. I doubt many blues have bothered putting any thought into it, regardless of how feasible it is. But dumbasses stockpiling weapons, food and water, for the 2coming of GEEZUS and the 2nd civil war? I mean, I've known fuckers with posters showing zombie confederate soldiers, rising up from a battle field, holding confederate flags and muskets, with the caption "The south will rise again" like some undead threat of vindication.

 

[Baffle]

No because the moderator can't name a group for him to condemn.

TRUMP: You want to call them? What do you want to call them? Give me a name, give me a name, go ahead — who would you like me to condemn?

WALLACE: White supremacists, white supremacists and right-wing militia.

It's right there. These are the people I want you to condemn: 'White supremacists, white supremacists and right-wing militia'. And he can't manage to do that. Seems weird. Seems pro-white supremacy.

Ha! The knots I've seen people tie themselves in today trying to make this look good!

 

[Tireseas]

They’re generally better public speakers and “debaters” both in the traditional sense and the yelling over one another sense.

This is true (Sanders is very good at sticking to talking points and Warren remains a master debater), but you could have removed Biden completely from the debate stage and replaced him with anyone and likely gotten the same cacophony that drove me, someone who watches politics like a drug addict, away within fifteen minutes. I'd honestly love to see viewership numbers throughout the debate to see if there were notable drop offs in viewers.

Is anyone going to watch the vice president debate?

I plan on it. Pence, for being a slimy opportunist that cleans up well, is very good at being able to deliver talking points and appear in control, while Harris is one of the better examiners in the Senate from her times as a prosecutor. Watching the back and forth would be a nice change from the travesty of last night.

The Town Hall debate is potentially the highest risk one for Trump if he attempts a repeat performance from last night. The 1992 town hall debate is largely credited with sealing Bush Sr.'s fate in the election after he appeared dismissive while Clinton appeared connected to questioners (while he slew his patented charm on top of vagaries that allows people to envision whatever they want in him).

It is worrying that white supremacy is so widespread in the USA that condemning it would lose you a significant chunk of your fanbase. Like, that shouldn't be the case.

The grand irony is that die-hard white supremests likely wouldn't have treated an express denial as an offense. They know they are unpopular and plausible deniability has always been their stock in trade. If he denied them, they almost certainly would have turned around and said "he only needed to say that to win" and continued to support him as they have with southern and racist politicians going back to the southern strategy.

 

[Tireseas]

What are the chances that the Dems will control all of Congress?

I'd say they have a 40% chance as is, but Graham is in a tight race in South Carolina and Georgia has two Senate Seats open where Dems lead or tie in current polling. Collins in Maine is almost certain to lose (and the SCotUS debate will hurt her no matter what she does). I think Jones' seat in Alabama is a long shot for Dems to keep, but Jones having the seat at all was a surprise even when it did happen.

 

[tstorm823]

Ha! The knots I've seen people tie themselves in today trying to make this look good!

It's not that it looks good. It's that it was framed in such a way as to not possibly look good.

Edit: to be clear and fair, Biden also received similarly crap questions, it's not a partisan bias issue, but you don't see me harping about him being trapped. His few big "oof" moments were totally self-inflicted.

 

[Agema]

Is it true what Trump said though that he released more black people from prison than previous administration? The democrat '3 strikes out' law have always struck me as particularly harsh and has in no small part contributed to black people being disproportionally locked up for minor offenses.

Yes, there was a justice policy change to roll back some of the USA's culture of incarceration, which mostly benefitted black people as they are the race proportionally most incarcerated. It's possibly been the administration's best policy.

I'm for collective health insurance because it's a sign of civilization but costs get out of control really fast. In Europe it eats up like a third or even crawling up to half of the entire government budget.

Holy hell, you way wrong here. The highest public healthcare expenditure (%GDP) in Europe is ~8%, and the average is ~7%. Even if you measured by combined public and private, the highest healthcare spend in European countries is only ~11%GDP. Healthcare is more like a seventh to a sixth of the government budget.

Ironically, healthcare is actually a higher proportion of the government budget in the USA than it is in Europe.

 

[Baffle]

It's not that it looks good. It's that it was framed in such a way as to not possibly look good.

He coulda just said he condemned them, would've looked okay I reckon.

 

[Hades]

Trump also has a better point with the climate change crisis. It needs to be a gradual process and if people are able to buy more fuel efficient cars than this would be preferable over aiming too high at excessive costs. Biden's vision of a 'green economy' that provide well paying jobs for those at the minimum seems like a pipe dream to me. Atleast for the foreseeable future. It's really a selective expertise that only a few companies make good money from because of government(ie taxpayer) compensation. Sooner or later the old, polluting economy needs to be replaced but it can't be done overnight. The finances simply aren't there and when push comes to shove there is no public support to carry the costs other than 'the government' needs to pay. Start with small incentives and gradually it will build up. It's already working with huge energy companies switching to durable energies and a reduced demand for fossile fuels and huge overproduction in the middle east. It should be a concerted global effort otherwise it's pointless.

Firstly Trump's position on climate change is that its a hoax from China and his response to regulations that might slow down climate change is to remove them on behalf of big business. With this in mind Trump's point about Climate change is worse then anyone's point on climate change.

And it would be nice if it could be a gradual process. Perhaps it might have been possible to do that if politicians of all stripes hadn't dragged their heels about the subject for decades after it was already proven that global warming existed. Measures should have been taken decades ago and now we're at a point we're doing things gradually means we'll be too late.

 

[Agema]

1) Those were the final poll at about this stage last time Hillary was claimed to be up to 20 points clear or something,

Who was that poll by? Crazy Jack the local weirdo with his magic pen, based on the voices he was hearing?

2) National polls don't give the best indication of how the election will go when it's fought on states and in the present pandemic it's far easier still to collect data in cities than travel round in rural parts.

?What on earth...?
Heavens - what century are you in? Pollsters don't wander round the streets with a clipboard. There are phones, and the internet. Professional polling companies have complex analytical techniques where they assess the validity of their samples against state demographics and previous elections, and so on.

3) Biden hasn't really changed much in a lot of the battleground states or worse the rustbelt.

It's like you didn't read the bit where I pointed out how bad the state polls are for Trump, too.

 

[tstorm823]

He coulda just said he condemned them, would've looked okay I reckon.

To the unbiased observer, "I'm willing to do anything. I want to see peace" is a pretty thorough response.

 

[Baffle]

To the unbiased observer, "I'm willing to do anything. I want to see peace" is a pretty thorough response.

If he'd then done something to support that statement, maybe, but he very specifically doesn't -- and it would have been so easy to do.

What he's actually done is go on TV and say 'Proud Boys [white supremacists] stand back and standby'. Standby! Apparently that means 'readiness for duty or immediate deployment.' Rather than condemn the white supremacist militia as prompted, he told them to prepare for deployment!

 

[Exley97]

Predictable. Trump now says he doesn't even know who the Proud Boys are. But...he definitely knows they've been trying to help law enforcement

 

[Agema]

To the unbiased observer, "I'm willing to do anything. I want to see peace" is a pretty thorough response.

Yes, especially in the sense of ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.

 

[Dwarvenhobble]

It's right there. These are the people I want you to condemn: 'White supremacists, white supremacists and right-wing militia'. And he can't manage to do that. Seems weird. Seems pro-white supremacy.

Ha! The knots I've seen people tie themselves in today trying to make this look good!

Those aren't groups.

Can't condemn a group if there is no group named.

Like how AntiFA as we're constantly told isn't a group so why would you condemn fighting "Fascists"? (Lets ignore the Young Ones Jokes about calling all police, politicians, lecturers, landlords, Businessmen and other fascists for the moment)

They should have muted his mic when he wasn't supposed to be speaking, like he was a corporate-unfriendly Democrat running against Biden in the primary.

Not the best move I'd say a CNN representative literally muting the president lol Trump and co would have a field day with that.

The thing is the CNN moderator guy needed to be more forceful and be willing to be nasty or more stern on Trump. It should have been the moderator telling Trump to shut up not Biden and that seems to be a clear issue here. Because it was CNN and so to them it mattered more about drama than controlling the debate most likely.

More accurately, Trump won in 2016 out of sheer hatred for Hillary Clinton.
Everyone is hoping that in 2020 Biden will win out of sheer fear of more Donald Trump.

Thing is plenty of people tolerate or like Trump and think he's not fucked up too badly. It's mostly going to be liberal blue havens hating him and given how some governors have been behaving they're losing support which may also cost Biden support. The thing is the fear round Trump is funny when most hardcore republicans would be far worse so the fearmongering seems silly especially when so far it's been 4 years and Trump hasn't started a war or nuked anyone and the whole "He's making the USA a laughing stock". Hate to tell you this but under Bush the USA was a laughing stock and likely a far bigger one.

Biden has the opposite issue of Hillary.

Hillary gained support when she was shut away from the public not talking and lot it when she was out and about.
Biden loses support when he's sealed away and gains it when he's let out but the rumours are he's too ill / frail to be out and about that often when he really needs to be

To be fair, Hillary seemed to blame anyone who didn't uncritically support her for costing her the win. Remember her outright saying that the Green candidate was a Russian agent and Tulsi Gabbard was as well?

yeh Biden or at least the DNC have learned actively insulting people won't get their vote nor will trying to shame them into line. Though the question will be if enough has been done to repair that divide especially with a 2nd Bernie shut out and the seeming abandoning of most of the policies Bernie and his supporters wanted.

 

[Baffle]

Those aren't groups.

Can't condemn a group if there is no group named.

Ha! You might not be able to condemn white supremacists but most people can. Knots I tell ya!

 

[SilentPony]

It's not that it looks good. It's that it was framed in such a way as to not possibly look good.

Edit: to be clear and fair, Biden also received similarly crap questions, it's not a partisan bias issue, but you don't see me harping about him being trapped. His few big "oof" moments were totally self-inflicted.

Do you support white supremacists is not a gotcha question. That's like when Sarah Pallin said asking her what she reads was an unfair question - not if you read its not.

Even Fox News admits that condemning right-wing militia was the easiest question of the night, and Trump shit is pants.