Election results discussion thread (and sadly the inevitable aftermath)

[gorfias]

I think that AZ doesn't matter if NC GA PA go to Trump and WI MI go to Biden, it's a very slim Trump win with like 272 ec or close

edit:View attachment 1401

Yeah AZ is deciding factor in this scenario.

I wonder if these results are still a major wake up call to the p

No, thats not true. Different areas/demographics are more or less likely to cast absentee ballots, and those areas/ demographics may not politically reflect the votes already cast.

Like in PA: non-absentee votes skew Trump, absentee votes skew Biden, because absentee votes are more likely to come from urban areas in that state, and urban areas skew Democratic.

As I wrote, there can be explanations but they should be fairly minor. If Bush won 51 to 49 and you do a recount, statistically speaking, the vote after the count should still be about 51 to 49. Yet Gore managed to close that gap to about 500 votes in Florida. I think he "picked up" about 2,000 votes.

Vote counts are localised systems (elections are run at a county level, if I remember rightly), and counties tend to favour one side or the other. In the USA, it seems the slowest counts occur in certain cities, and cities tend to vote Democrat. Therefore, Democrat votes in numerous states are likely to roll in later than Republican ones. This isn't a conspiracy, it's just geography and procedure.

It's simply absurd and abusive to stop a count before a first run count is even complete.

I agree that, within limits, the 1st run count should be allowed to complete. But I think it is PA is allowed to keep counting until 11/9/2020. That's 6 days in which to engage in a ton of shenanigans. Will Trump's double digit lead disappear?

ITMT: I wonder if pollsters should learn something from this election. They had Biden winning in a landslide with wide margins over Trump in most states. At a minimum, that does not appear to have been what happened.

 

[deleted20220709]

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[Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)]

Michigan is now blue, this is gettng crazy

 

[meiam]

Well so far things are going just as I imagined, Trump declare himself victor but slow ballot might make Biden win. There's going to be a lot of irregularity (real and fake) being claimed in the next few weeks, lots of recount with archaic rule and lots courts are going to get involved. I really don't think we'll get a final answer for at least a month.

 

[Hades]

Well so far things are going just as I imagined, Trump declare himself victor but slow ballot might make Biden win. There's going to be a lot of irregularity (real and fake) being claimed in the next few weeks, lots of recount with archaic rule and lots courts are going to get involved. I really don't think we'll get a final answer for at least a month.

A month of anxiety and complete panic for both the American left and the American right. Yikes, have fun America.

 

[MetalHead]

Michigan is now blue, this is gettng crazy

Trump's head is going to explode

 

[MetalHead]

A month of anxiety and complete panic for both the American left and the American right. Yikes, have fun America.

A month?

 

[Iron]

A month?

The time allotted to pushing election results to the courts. You can't ask for a recount or dispute results after a month had passed

 

[Iron]

Woah it looks like Reps won house and senate. Is this even possible - Biden with a Rep house and senate?

 

[MetalHead]

The time allotted to pushing election results to the courts. You can't ask for a recount or dispute results after a month had passed

Sorry, I was referring to the last 4 years.

 

[MetalHead]

Woah it looks like Reps won house and senate. Is this even possible - Biden with a Rep house and senate?

House Democrats appear poised to keep the House but fall drastically behind expectations

 

[Agema]

Woah it looks like Reps won house and senate. Is this even possible - Biden with a Rep house and senate?

No, I think the Dems are still expected to hold the House. They'll just have their majority shaved.

 

[Avnger]

Woah it looks like Reps won house and senate. Is this even possible - Biden with a Rep house and senate?

One of the Georgia senate races will be decided by a runoff election due to no one winning an outright majority. If Democrats flip Arizona (almost guaranteed) and Maine (Rep has very tight lead), that runoff will likely decide whether Reps have a 51-49 majority or Democrats have a 50-50 (plus VP tiebreaker) majority.

The House has already been called to stay in Democratic hands (though with possibly a reduced majority).

2020 US Presidential Election Results: Live Map

View live updates on electoral votes by state for presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump on ABC News. Senate, House, and Governor Election results also available at ABCNews.com

abcnews.go.com

 

[Avnger]

Not that my math is correct as I think I can't think straight enough to do basic arithmetic right now (truly, the hardest of math), but hasn't Nebraska already been called completely for Trump?

You probably figured this out since I fell asleep, but Nebraska and Maine are not winner-take-all states. Each congressional district is worth 1 EC vote while the state overall is worth 2. That interactive map has little boxes just below and to the left of the main map for selecting their winner/loser. Biden was called to win one of the Maine (no overall winner yet) districts and one of the Nebraska (Trump won overall) districts overnight, I guess.

 

[meiam]

With the high turnout, Biden is looking at a very high lead on popular vote, 5millions+ is really not impossible since California still has millions of ballot to be counted which are probably 75%+ for Biden.

 

[Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)]

So people on twitter having a fit calling the election fraud

 

[Avnger]

So people on twitter having a fit calling the election fraud

I mean the President is literally tweeting straight up bullshit about election fraud. It's like they're all too stupid to understand the difference between "votes being cast after polls close" and "already cast votes being counted after polls close."

 

[PointlessKnowledge]

I mean the President is literally tweeting straight up bullshit about election fraud. It's like they're all too stupid to understand the difference between "votes being cast after polls close" and "already cast votes being counted after polls close."

Well, time is a socialist plot. It is fake news. It doesn't exist.

 

[Xprimentyl]

So people on twitter having a fit calling the election fraud

Of course they are; their supreme leader told them if he wasn't winning handily out the gate, fraud would be the only possible reason. Nevermind he's one of (if not THE) least popular and most divisive president who's entire term has been riddled with scandal and misinformation. I mean, how could he possibly lose?

Still, there's plenty of time for him to gain ground and put on display just how dumb and easily led Americans can be...

 

[SilentPony]

Oh hey, look at that. I said Trump would call for an end to the election and for the supreme court to step in. Jeez, its almost as if that's exactly what he said he'd do like 2 days ago. But I am glad to see the voices that really matter, Chris Christie and Rick Santorum, are all over the place saying "Oh you naughty boy Trump!"