How long until this Pandemic ceases?

CriticalGaming

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In some cases. In some cases it seems to be not much more then a slight fever, runny nose and a cough for a few days. In terms of mortality it is only slightly above the seasonal flu statistically.



Because the Corona virus is incredibly contagious and if left unrestricted it would have an exponential spread that would put a massive strain on society. The main risk is not that a lot of 70+ people die, the main risk is that so many people get sick at the same time that society can no longer function. If the healthcare system gets overloaded a ton of people will die, not just from Covid-19 but from other afflictions that aren't normally life threatening, and that will include people who aren't at risk from Corona. Covid-19 is so contagious that it has the possibility to severely hamper or outright stop vital social systems like food logistics, imagine what would happen if a major urban center like NYC or LA wasn't getting its thousands of tons of food delivered daily but only a fraction of that. All because Covid-19 got into the distribution companies that ensures food delivers on time.

That's on top of what I argued in a previous thread that the idea that some people, at risk people, healthcare staff etc., should be thrown under the bus by facing extreme conditions of isolation, with all the related problems and health risks that bring, so that the rest of the population can pretend as if a major pandemic isn't raging is inherently unethical to the extreme. Anyone who seriously suggests that "some people" (never themselves, conveniently) should suffer for the good of everyone else needs to have their moral compass checked. We aren't talking a very small group of a dozen people here, we are talking one of the biggest demographics in the western world and everyone working in an essential and vital part of the public sector. That means that millions upon millions of people need to take the blow of never leaving their homes for a prolonged and undefined period of time, all so that you don't have to wear a mask and can go knock down a few brewskies at the local bar like you don't give a fuck every Friday. Honestly, fuck that immoral, "I've got mine" attitude.
None of what you said here addresses the ruination of the small business. Or people's livelihood. You say its easy for me to say open up because i disregard the shitload of the sick that might happen.

Yet youll completely disregard people losing their businesses, losing their jobs, their homes, etc.

You falsely believe that the desire to open is just so people can go back to bars and partying and shit.

You are 100% wrong. People want to go back to work so they can keep their roof over their head and food on the table.

Clearly the shutdown doesnt affect your life otherwise you wouldnt be in favor of keeping them in place. Must be nice to not have your life or job affected. Let me know whats that like. Because my business has nearly died and im struggling to make sure i can keep my people employed so they can feed themselves.

When the cure is worse than the disease, we must learn a new method of dealing with it.

Fact of the matter is that the vast majority of infected do not need medical attention. And as hospitals have learned to deal and treat this virus, then the strain that cases bring to the hospitals only decreases over time even if serious cases mount.

And with a vaccine coming around the corner, people should be prepping to get it and open up fully. Because this cannot continue like this or the economic downturn will destroy more lives than the virus will.
 

Phoenixmgs

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CCP through WHO downplayed this back in January/February, even during the Chinese new years celebrations. I've had this conversation before.
US had our own Intel on it, we're not dependent on the CCP and WHO to get the info. Taiwan sent their own people, got the info and told everyone else. Unless you're claiming US intelligence is worse than what the average person can research on their own on the Internet, then there's no reason to blame the CCP or the WHO. The CDC is also shit with regards to proper guidelines. You gonna blame the CCP and WHO for the CDC being shit 6+ months into the pandemic?


Can you guess why it isn't happening?

Answer: Because restrictions are in place to mitigate spread. Restrictions that you and CriticalGaming now want gone.
There's a difference between lockdowns and restrictions that make sense. There's a happy medium between "don't give a fuck" and a lockdown, those aren't the only 2 options. When have I said every restriction is stupid? All I said was going into full lockdown mode is stupid. It's especially stupid in American because when people get laid off, they lose their health insurance. How is having millions lose health insurance during a pandemic a good thing? Again, you can just look at Japan at how cheap and easy controlling the virus is. Japan has no fancy testing and tracing program like South Korea. Japan tests 0.19 people per 1,000 daily while the US tests 3.49 people per thousand daily. It just takes basic awareness and common sense of the virus to keep it under control. Closing schools is not something that makes sense, wearing masks make sense. Not having massive gatherings inside makes sense, closing restaurants does not make sense. The UK has that completely asinine "rule of 6" where you can't even gather with more than 6 people OUTSIDE, which makes zero sense whatsoever. You can be as open as possible as long as healthcare doesn't get overwhelmed, that's the only thing to really watch (case numbers themselves really don't mean anything). And currently, hospitalizations are still less than they were in April and the virus is much more widespread geographically.
 

Agema

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None of what you said here addresses the ruination of the small business. Or people's livelihood. You say its easy for me to say open up because i disregard the shitload of the sick that might happen.
Let me put the situation to you this way: do you think I would prefer your business to survive, or my parents? This is basically what you're up against.

This in large part a whole host of failures. It's in large part a failure of government - in pandemic control most obviously, but also in ideology - to support businesses properly, but also to manage it's debt in large part through obsession with lowering taxes. It's a failure of the public, countless individuals failing to exercise personal responsibility, and a failure of organisations to think beyond their own narrow short-term interest. And this is what it all adds up to. All, really, a massive societal-wide failure.

The government can prop up businesses, and probably should. I can't help but notice some companies (e.g. Amazon) are making a fucking fortune. Hit them with a windfall tax and redistribute it to firms that are suffering.

You should be killing your shitty government for all it's shittiness, and instead you're asking to put your fellow citizens at risk. I don't mean to say you're casual about the lives of other people, I mean to say that this is what happens when no-one feels the government can even be held to account, like it's a force of nature rather than a body elected by the people to serve the people. It somehow becomes beyond blame, when it's actually a big part of the problem.
 

Generals

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None of what you said here addresses the ruination of the small business. Or people's livelihood. You say its easy for me to say open up because i disregard the shitload of the sick that might happen.

Yet youll completely disregard people losing their businesses, losing their jobs, their homes, etc.

You falsely believe that the desire to open is just so people can go back to bars and partying and shit.

You are 100% wrong. People want to go back to work so they can keep their roof over their head and food on the table.

Clearly the shutdown doesnt affect your life otherwise you wouldnt be in favor of keeping them in place. Must be nice to not have your life or job affected. Let me know whats that like. Because my business has nearly died and im struggling to make sure i can keep my people employed so they can feed themselves.

When the cure is worse than the disease, we must learn a new method of dealing with it.

Fact of the matter is that the vast majority of infected do not need medical attention. And as hospitals have learned to deal and treat this virus, then the strain that cases bring to the hospitals only decreases over time even if serious cases mount.

And with a vaccine coming around the corner, people should be prepping to get it and open up fully. Because this cannot continue like this or the economic downturn will destroy more lives than the virus will.
You know, I feel bad for you and your business despite your post making it really hard to do so. Because sure it's truly hard for small businesses and no one wants to end up losing the roof over their heads. But you know what, being dead with a roof is still probably worse, no? As Agema has said that's what you're basically arguing against: your financial health vs other people's actual health. And there are ways to save small businesses through these hard times but it involves government intervention and financial aid, something which very ironically the same people who chant against lockdowns seem to despise as well. Basically in the end it seems that some people believe it's normal millionaires, billionaires and big businesses do not chip in so small business have to be forced to be open and help the spread of the virus. Sounds like a double wammy of shit if you ask me.

A last thing: you clearly do not work in healthcare, I do know quite a few healthcare workers and also actually watch the news and everytime I'm reminded about the strain on healthcare. And this despite all the lessons learned from the first wave. You ask for empathy for your financial woes but you don't even show any for the dead and those who have to work in extremely physically and psychologically harsh conditions due to the virus.
 

Houseman

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As Agema has said that's what you're basically arguing against: your financial health vs other people's actual health.
If you run out of money, you might also die of starvation, or otherwise you live the homeless life for a while, which is famously not great for one's health.

I'm seeing some parallels between this dilemma and the "requiting voting ID dilemma". If requiring voter ID hurts more Americans than it does to prevent fraud, should we do it? If pandemic lockdowns hurts more Americans than it does to prevent the spread, should we do it?

The answer to the first question has been, according to some, no. But these same people will say yes to the second question.
 

Generals

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If you run out of money, you might also die of starvation, or otherwise you live the homeless life for a while, which is famously not great for one's health.

I'm seeing some parallels between this dilemma and the "requiting voting ID dilemma". If requiring voter ID hurts more Americans than it does to prevent fraud, should we do it? If pandemic lockdowns hurts more Americans than it does to prevent the spread, should we do it?

The answer to the first question has been, according to some, no. But these same people will say yes to the second question.
Which is why I have also added the couple of sentences following the one you just quoted. Let's not pretend like in Wealthy nations a lockdown has to lead to massive bankruptcies, the state can easily chip in to help businesses stay afloat or to hand out welfare to those who's jobs couldn't be saved.
 
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Phoenixmgs

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A last thing: you clearly do not work in healthcare, I do know quite a few healthcare workers and also actually watch the news and everytime I'm reminded about the strain on healthcare. And this despite all the lessons learned from the first wave. You ask for empathy for your financial woes but you don't even show any for the dead and those who have to work in extremely physically and psychologically harsh conditions due to the virus.
I work in healthcare as IT, I've yet to see hospitals overwhelmed in the Chicagoland suburban area or in the central Indiana area (a college city). Also, part of the fault healthcare could become overwhelmed is due to themselves. At least in the 2 rather big hospital organizations that I've worked for in the last couple months, their policies are funneling patients to the hospital vs allowing clinics to also help. If you go to a clinic for an issue and you have one of the symptoms of covid, you're sent to the hospital. If you have a headache, you are literally sent to the hospital, I've seen it first hand at a clinic. It's better for the patient both for health purposes and financial purposes to be treated early and as outpatient. However, the system prefers money and inpatient treatments because they cost more. It ridiculous that clinics can't treat something that's about twice as worse as the flu and will lead to hospital healthcare workers having to treat far more patients than they should.

If you run out of money, you might also die of starvation, or otherwise you live the homeless life for a while, which is famously not great for one's health.

I'm seeing some parallels between this dilemma and the "requiting voting ID dilemma". If requiring voter ID hurts more Americans than it does to prevent fraud, should we do it? If pandemic lockdowns hurts more Americans than it does to prevent the spread, should we do it?

The answer to the first question has been, according to some, no. But these same people will say yes to the second question.
Yeah, it's a misnomer to say it's a money vs lives argument, it's a lives vs lives argument. People are becoming depressed leading to suicides, people are halting cancer treatments or not getting preventiive screenings, and a host of other things. It's also a general risk argument as well. If you made everyone drive say a max of 10 miles per hour, you'd save so many more lives than this virus could possibly take. Yet we don't do that because a 1% chance to die in a traffic accident is deemed acceptable by society while the virus has a death rate well less than that.
 

Phoenixmgs

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Which is why I have also added the couple of sentences following the one you just quoted. Let's not pretend like in Wealthy nations a lockdown has to lead to massive bankruptcies, the state can easily chip in to help businesses stay afloat or to hand out welfare to those who's jobs couldn't be saved.
In America, that's not really a thing. Even if companies are getting bailed out, they aren't keeping workers on payroll. People lose their jobs in America, they lose health insurance. Even in countries where they have much better system to helping people in such situations, wouldn't that money (cuz it's a lot) to help people be better spent in other areas? It's super cheap to get the virus under control, just look at Japan and literally their whole plan was reduce human interactions by 80% and wear masks, that's it; no lockdowns, no fancy testing and trace systems, etc. This virus doesn't take millions/billions of money to defeat. You can use that money for other improvements to the state that would result in better health and quality of life than what the money is currently being used for.
 

Agema

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If you run out of money, you might also die of starvation, or otherwise you live the homeless life for a while, which is famously not great for one's health.
Firstly, the USA has welfare and charity - no-one should die of starvation. Secondly, homelessness, poverty and depression can be recovered from. Nobody recovers from death by covid-19.

It's super cheap to get the virus under control, just look at Japan and literally their whole plan was reduce human interactions by 80% and wear masks, that's it; no lockdowns, no fancy testing and trace systems, etc.
But Japan has an advantage here: a culture that puts a higher value on conformity and societal consideration. Places like the USA and UK are far more individualistic. I have lost count of the arseholes who couldn't give a shit and make no effort at all, the shop staff that don't challenge them, etc. This approach would be tough.

This is what really makes my blood boil. As I have already stated, most of these fucking arseholes who ruined our chance of mitigating covid without more extreme measures are the same people who complain about extreme measures. They are smug pricks with a very low chance of death, who think other people can just go die because they shouldn't have to even be troubled by sticking a cloth over their cakeholes. When your society has enough of these people, lots of your alternative measures are in deep trouble before they're even on the drawing board.

Next, we blew it long ago. This was what consistent government messaging and good examples were about, and many governments such as the Trump administration totally screwed it. Through inconstency, contrariness, feeding conspiracy theory and failing to set good examples, they dynamited that option pretty much right from the start and they can never get it back. It's gone. Finito. Not an option. Don't even bother.

Yeah, it's a misnomer to say it's a money vs lives argument, it's a lives vs lives argument.
Then you can bring some numbers to the table rather than just hanging it out there as some vague sort of point.

I can give you a start. 250,000 covid-19 deaths in 8 months, compared to an annual rate of 40,000 suicides. I'm betting you the suicide rate doesn't increase 700%.
 

Mister Mumbler

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Okay, honest question here, but what is so great about capitalism again? It seems to me that the only thing holding it together is sheer momentum, and if it ever loses the entire thing falls apart.
 
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Shadyside

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Okay, honest question here, but what is so great about capitalism again? It seems to me that the only thing holding it together is sheer momentum, and if it ever loses the entire thing falls apart.
I think the real problem is that people haven't moved past the meme that hard work automatically gives you equal output. And it wouldn't really matter what economic system you use, since people will find a way to exploit and game the system which will lead us back to square one.
 

Bob_McMillan

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I'm not sure where you live but during the times when it's nice outside, you can celebrate just about anything outside and have fun. Our gaming group had 3 or 4 pool parties over the summer with 20+ people and not one person got it due to the parties. Transmission outside is extremely low.
We do go out, it's not like we've shut ourselves in these past few months. And we don't mind celebrating our birthdays at home either, we've always done that. But the first birthday of the year is in March, and the last is in December, so it's truly depressing to think our country has been in lockdown this long. Our government completely wasted this time. With as strict as our lockdown rules were, we should have been out of this in a month. But with no contact tracing and mass testing, we somehow managed to crawl from 40 cases a day to 2,000 a day after 8 whole months.
 

Generals

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I work in healthcare as IT, I've yet to see hospitals overwhelmed in the Chicagoland suburban area or in the central Indiana area (a college city). Also, part of the fault healthcare could become overwhelmed is due to themselves. At least in the 2 rather big hospital organizations that I've worked for in the last couple months, their policies are funneling patients to the hospital vs allowing clinics to also help. If you go to a clinic for an issue and you have one of the symptoms of covid, you're sent to the hospital. If you have a headache, you are literally sent to the hospital, I've seen it first hand at a clinic. It's better for the patient both for health purposes and financial purposes to be treated early and as outpatient. However, the system prefers money and inpatient treatments because they cost more. It ridiculous that clinics can't treat something that's about twice as worse as the flu and will lead to hospital healthcare workers having to treat far more patients than they should.


Yeah, it's a misnomer to say it's a money vs lives argument, it's a lives vs lives argument. People are becoming depressed leading to suicides, people are halting cancer treatments or not getting preventiive screenings, and a host of other things. It's also a general risk argument as well. If you made everyone drive say a max of 10 miles per hour, you'd save so many more lives than this virus could possibly take. Yet we don't do that because a 1% chance to die in a traffic accident is deemed acceptable by society while the virus has a death rate well less than that.

Well you're lucky that things are still running smoothly in Chicago. And yes if things are running smoothly and it doesn't like things are going to be overwhelmed anytime soon than I'd agree a lockdown may not be necessary. But it should remain an option if other measures do not curb the spread of Covid sufficiently and that's ultimately my point.

And I've yet to hear about extremely high amounts of increased suicide over here despite two lockdowns. but we did lose more than 10 000 due to Covid.

In America, that's not really a thing. Even if companies are getting bailed out, they aren't keeping workers on payroll. People lose their jobs in America, they lose health insurance. Even in countries where they have much better system to helping people in such situations, wouldn't that money (cuz it's a lot) to help people be better spent in other areas? It's super cheap to get the virus under control, just look at Japan and literally their whole plan was reduce human interactions by 80% and wear masks, that's it; no lockdowns, no fancy testing and trace systems, etc. This virus doesn't take millions/billions of money to defeat. You can use that money for other improvements to the state that would result in better health and quality of life than what the money is currently being used for.
I understand that's not really a thing but that's a real problem and what I find truly problematic is that those who do not want that to be a thing in the US are the same who are complaining about their failing small businesses due to lockdowns.

And I really doubt Americans can be expected to actually follow those rules like in Japan. We tried in several European countries and we ended up needing going into lockdown anyway.
 

Fieldy409

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None of what you said here addresses the ruination of the small business. Or people's livelihood. You say its easy for me to say open up because i disregard the shitload of the sick that might happen.

Yet youll completely disregard people losing their businesses, losing their jobs, their homes, etc.

You falsely believe that the desire to open is just so people can go back to bars and partying and shit.

You are 100% wrong. People want to go back to work so they can keep their roof over their head and food on the table.

Clearly the shutdown doesnt affect your life otherwise you wouldnt be in favor of keeping them in place. Must be nice to not have your life or job affected. Let me know whats that like. Because my business has nearly died and im struggling to make sure i can keep my people employed so they can feed themselves.

When the cure is worse than the disease, we must learn a new method of dealing with it.

Fact of the matter is that the vast majority of infected do not need medical attention. And as hospitals have learned to deal and treat this virus, then the strain that cases bring to the hospitals only decreases over time even if serious cases mount.

And with a vaccine coming around the corner, people should be prepping to get it and open up fully. Because this cannot continue like this or the economic downturn will destroy more lives than the virus will.

What makes you think people would go back to business as usual without a government lockdown? Customer confidence in their own safety is shattered. People are scared, they know whats happening. The numbers wouldn't be nearly the same. So either way, lockdown or no, business will suffer inevitably due to this virus. You won't have the same numbers as last year if you ended lockdowns today because people are scared.
 

Agema

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Okay, honest question here, but what is so great about capitalism again? It seems to me that the only thing holding it together is sheer momentum, and if it ever loses the entire thing falls apart.
I don't have an intrinsic problem with capitalism in terms of private property and profit motive as a basis for the economy.

I have a problem with the more laissez-faire capitalism that we have increasingly embraced since the 1980s. I am not convinced it makes for a better society. I think it makes society and the economy brittle. When the going is good, it roars and delivers. When it hits a setback, it is devastating.

Looking at the UK's growth over the last 40 years compared to France, despite being more economically liberal, it has not done better. It grows more in the good times, and then all those gains evaporate when a recession hits. For this zero long-term economic advantage, the UK gets the misery and human suffering when the wheels occasionally fall off and there is little safety net to catch anyone. Government debt has skyrocketed anyway, smashing into lies any pretence of good fiscal management from the right. It's not just that, but the ideology of government noninterference has led us to wither the government itself into incompetence (what better way to stop the government doing anything than crippling it's ability to do things?) And then we get the pandemic response, and we see just how bad this is when we need the government to take firm action. Worst of all, the people of the USA and UK don't even appear to be happy under their supposed super-laissez-faire-turbocharged economies. Quite the opposite. They seem to be insecure, polarised, dissatisfied, unequal, suspicious and self-destructive.
 

Phoenixmgs

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But Japan has an advantage here: a culture that puts a higher value on conformity and societal consideration. Places like the USA and UK are far more individualistic. I have lost count of the arseholes who couldn't give a shit and make no effort at all, the shop staff that don't challenge them, etc. This approach would be tough.

This is what really makes my blood boil. As I have already stated, most of these fucking arseholes who ruined our chance of mitigating covid without more extreme measures are the same people who complain about extreme measures. They are smug pricks with a very low chance of death, who think other people can just go die because they shouldn't have to even be troubled by sticking a cloth over their cakeholes. When your society has enough of these people, lots of your alternative measures are in deep trouble before they're even on the drawing board.

Next, we blew it long ago. This was what consistent government messaging and good examples were about, and many governments such as the Trump administration totally screwed it. Through inconstency, contrariness, feeding conspiracy theory and failing to set good examples, they dynamited that option pretty much right from the start and they can never get it back. It's gone. Finito. Not an option. Don't even bother.



Then you can bring some numbers to the table rather than just hanging it out there as some vague sort of point.

I can give you a start. 250,000 covid-19 deaths in 8 months, compared to an annual rate of 40,000 suicides. I'm betting you the suicide rate doesn't increase 700%.
I feel like people in the US used to work together for a common goal. I realize Japanese culture is different and more suited for consideration of others. I agree, it was totally blown in the US before the virus even got here with the inconsistent messaging. How just basic things like masks become political is so asinine. I'd like to think with proper messaging, Americans would get on board because you can easily turn "doing the right thing" into it being best for YOU. For example, masks help the wearer and not just the people around you. If you do those couple things that are restrictive in nature, you'll end up with more overall freedom during this time. Everyone has to be so extreme on everything from people believing it's a hoax to the people getting mad at those that didn't literally stay at home 24/7. Maybe rationality is so far gone that it's just FUBAR, I don't know.

There is quite a massive hunger/food problem being caused by the pandemic. Sure, it's not killing people in the US, but money that could go towards helping that much bigger problem may not be there and donated by the wealthy nations that are using a lot of money keeping everything afloat amidst the lockdowns. You can google something along the lines of "increase non-covid deaths" and find that deaths from things that aren't covid-related are increasing. There's the potential impact from a lot of things like massive drops in vaccinations that can cause future deaths, increased substance abuse, people not getting normal screenings, people halting treatments for stuff like cancer, etc. I remember there was a thread on the old forums about how mental health problems would greatly contribute to the millennial generation dying at a much faster rate than the previous generation, it may have been this article that was posted by whoever was the TC. Just saying many things like mental health issues being caused by the lockdowns don't really "count" because it can be treated and recovered from dismisses future deaths contributed to said lockdowns. There isn't a nice clear number to compare to covid deaths, but it doesn't mean more harm isn't done. In the end, locking down can easily cause greater health risks to the majority of the population while the risk from covid is rather minuscule. Parents used to have measles parties when measles' death rate in kids is higher than covid but now going to school is "too risky" for their kids.
 

Phoenixmgs

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Well you're lucky that things are still running smoothly in Chicago. And yes if things are running smoothly and it doesn't like things are going to be overwhelmed anytime soon than I'd agree a lockdown may not be necessary. But it should remain an option if other measures do not curb the spread of Covid sufficiently and that's ultimately my point.

And I've yet to hear about extremely high amounts of increased suicide over here despite two lockdowns. but we did lose more than 10 000 due to Covid.



I understand that's not really a thing but that's a real problem and what I find truly problematic is that those who do not want that to be a thing in the US are the same who are complaining about their failing small businesses due to lockdowns.

And I really doubt Americans can be expected to actually follow those rules like in Japan. We tried in several European countries and we ended up needing going into lockdown anyway.
My point about lockdowns is that they have been far too overarching, whole states or whole countries. Doing very surgical lockdowns in hotspots makes some sense. I don't believe we are smartly doing basic mitigation measures that would stop these hotspots so lockdowns may have to be implemented because of that failure. Lockdowns overall just bandaid the problem temporarily without actually fixing anything while risking people's livelihoods, that's kinda my main problem with it.

I talked about non-covid related deaths increasing in my above post.

I'm very much for a lot of socialist measures and helping out those in need with programs. Public healthcare is a must IMO as I don't believe in anything that is a necessity should be in the business of making a profit. However, if you did basic and very cheap mitigation measures, far less money would have to be given to businesses and people because you don't need to close everything down. Sure, give people money to stay afloat that do work in industries that just can't run without massive indoor gatherings like conventions or movie theaters. Nothing wrong with that, but shutting down all non-essential businesses doesn't make sense. With regards to Americans and others not following basic rules, I'd like to believe with proper messaging people would, but as I said in my above post, maybe it's FUBAR at this point.

Okay, honest question here, but what is so great about capitalism again? It seems to me that the only thing holding it together is sheer momentum, and if it ever loses the entire thing falls apart.
I don't think the answer to it is capitalism is bad and say socialism is the answer. I believe taking the goods things from all the different systems is the way to go. I'm not an economics expert by any means but from the little I've come across, full-blown socialism doesn't seem to work, much like full-blown capitalism doesn't work. An overall capitalistic economy I think would work with heavy regulations and socialist measures in place. The current system obviously heavily benefits the ones that have already greatly benefited because they wrote the rules basically.