Japanese Analysts Speculate on Nintendo Crash

[Logan Westbrook]

Japanese Analysts Speculate on Nintendo Crash

Disappointing sales of a high profile Wii title, coupled with the recent drop in hardware sales has led to some Japanese analysts to speculate on whether the Nintendo bubble has finally burst.

Deca Sports might not have set the western world on fire, but it went over pretty well in Japan, selling 30,000 copies on its first day and 2 million copies overall. So when publisher HudsonSoft released the sequel they expected similar results and sent 50,000 copies to retailers. Total first day sales for 'Deca Sporta 2'?

2,500 copies, a mere 3% of the total shipped, according to the reliable and respected sales blogger Sinobi [http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/].

While first day sales aren't everything, it's a pretty poor result for a game that HudsonSoft were so sure of, they hired a multi-platinum selling boy band to appear in the commercials. Add falling hardware sales into the mix and you have a recipe for disaster. Nintendo's stock price fell by 7.5%, prompting Nintendo CEO Satoru Iwata to state the Wii was "experiencing the most unhealthy condition since it hit the Japan market."

After such a long time on top, this sudden shift in fortunes for Nintendo has led to the Japanese tech news site Impress Watch to speculate on the possibility of a crash in Nintendo's future. The author, Hiroshige Goto, raises the question of what will happen if the slowdown that Nintendo is experiencing spreads to other markets and highlights the lack of compelling software for the Wii, especially in contrast to the high-profile releases coming for the PS3. If Impress Watch is correct, Nintendo had better announce something pretty special at E3

Source: 1up [http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3173812]



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[Tech Team FTW!]

Wow, this might prompt Nintendo to release some good games for the Wii...

No, it will take the universe collapsing on itself for a good game to be released on a bad console.
(just an opinion, no need to flame me)

 

[Gamer137]

Well, you can only sell so much before everyone has one.

 

[KaZZaP]

Wow, this might prompt Nintendo to release some good games for the Wii...

You mean I might actually get some use out of the damn thing?

Mine is getting plenty of use, it makes a good paper weight, sculpture, and if anything else something to sit beside my Xbox to make it look tougher.

 

[timmytom1]

Wow, this might prompt Nintendo to release some good games for the Wii...

Dream on , we`ll all be dead long befor enintendo decides to return to it`s original audience for now it`ll chase the casual dollar like a lost soul

 

[Lord_Ascendant]

Good games? For Wii?

dont make me laugh

 

[KDR_11k]

From what I heard Deca Sports wasn't a very good implementation so maybe the sales were misguided and people aren't coming back for more after they've learned. Alternatively the game takes much longer than one day to ramp up (well, okay, that's not alternatively, Wii games always do but of course we can't say yet how it'll ramp). Either way I'm not sure how a sequel to a game that sold 250k counts as high profile. I expect some people to point at MadWorld but that's a niche game, it's bound to sell pretty lowly (I heard it's on the same level as NMH sales-wise) and that's not because of the Wii. Stylized games like that don't sell well no matter what system they're on (wasn't Capcom extremely disappointed with the performance of Okami on the PS2?).

The Wii drop isn't terribly surprising, the thing has been coasting on its previous releases for way too long and is now slowing down due to the lack of further boosts. I don't have much of an overview over the release schedule but I think there are going to be some more marketable titles coming out in the next few months that might push the sales up again. I don't think a crash is going to happen, that would require total inactivity from Nintendo and I don't think they'll remain complacent for long (they're admitting they're in trouble instead of slamming the competition with some stupid marketspeak* so it sounds like they're going to fix it). Wii Sports Resort is upcoming, that alone should be a major boost (Wii Sports is the best selling game on the platform even in Japan where it's sold separately).

Of course we'll see analysts blab about doom and gloom soon because they hate how their "take last gen's numbers and slap new names on it" prediction approach failed this generation. They also love telling the press what they want to hear and I bet a lot of the press would love to hear that the hardcore (their readership) has somehow become relevant.

Right now the last game I actually enjoyed for the Wii was NoMoreHeroes (Going to play MadWorld soon hopefully) and that came out more than a year ago! The only thing I hear right now is shallow confirmations of new Zelda and Pikmin titles, along with the Conduit.

What, you enjoyed that repetitive bashfest that is NMH? I've got dozens of better games on the Wii alone but then again I found God of War average at best and that's supposedly one of the best games of that genre.

*=May just be a page from Art of War though, "When strong appear weak, when weak appear strong".

 

[oliveira8]

Well, you can only sell so much before everyone has one.

Nintendo can just do what they did before and release new versions of the Wii that don't do anything particularly different, yet everyone still has to buy the new model.

Any chance you might talking about Nintendo DSi?

 

[Cousin_IT]

im not surprised. Console & games aimed primarily at a large, fickle consumer market (ie the "casuals") + recession = poor sales; the moreso when it comes to sequels

 

[Jimmyjames]

There have been plenty of good games. Mad World was awesome. So was Res Evil 4 Wii. I hear Sega's "House of the Dead" for Wii was pretty good, too. "Boom Blox" is the best game there is on Wii. Conduit is shaping up to be a good game. So was Zelda, Metroid, Mario.

Problem is, the jackasses that bought Wii because is was trendy and hip aren't gamers. They don't buy games because Wii Sports is all they need (and to a lesser extent, Rock Band and Guitar Hero). They also have to contend with the glut of piss-poor shovelware that makes the good games hard to spot.

So, wehen the trendy games get sick of it, who's left? The hardcore gamers- the people that play games because they have a passion for it.

Get ready to pick up the slack, kids.

 

[KaZZaP]

Nintendo can just do what they did before and release new versions

Before? DSi anyone?

 

[Mrsoupcup]

Wow, this might prompt Nintendo to release some good games for the Wii...

Hopefully this will kick them in thier wii and they will finally make fun original titles for thier hardcore crowd after they just decided they were to cool for us.