2022 French Presidential Election

Silvanus

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Almost all of the results are in from the first round of the French Presidential Election (except for several Parisian districts). Emmanuel Macron of the liberal-centrist En Marche! and Marine le Pen of the far-right National Rally have proceeded to the second round, with 28.1% & 23.3% of the voteshare respectively.

Third place was Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the socialist La France Insoumise on 20.1%.

It looks like the result will depend heavily on where second-preference votes go. Almost half of the votes cast were for candidates that did not make the run-off, so those voters will either have to switch to one of the candidates that made the run-off, or abstain.

Full country graphics and district-by-district tallies (as well as the performance of the smaller candidates) is here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/n...tion-2022-projected-result-and-latest-results

Where d'we reckon second-preference votes will go? Most other candidates have either advised their supporters to vote against Le Pen, or just to do anything but vote for her. The notable exception is Éric Zemmour, a far-right columnist, who managed about 7% in the first round and who has endorsed Le Pen. However, polling shows a fairly significant proportion of left-wing supporters of Insoumise or PS will abstain in a second round.
 

bluegate

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Where d'we reckon second-preference votes will go?
I have no idea of party programs in France, so I have no way of measuring who's most likely to vote for who as a second-choice.

Most other candidates have either advised their supporters to vote against Le Pen, or just to do anything but vote for her.
Looks like it'll be Macron then?

However, polling shows a fairly significant proportion of left-wing supporters of Insoumise or PS will abstain in a second round.
So they'll be voting for Le Pen then, fuckwits.
 

Agema

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I have no idea of party programs in France, so I have no way of measuring who's most likely to vote for who as a second-choice.
The French mainstream left Parti Socialiste (PS) collapsed long ago - it's now polling under 10%. The French mainstream right Les Republicains (LR) is doing better, ~20% in the French parliament even if their Presidential candidates are nowhere, but ailing.

So, basically, with the mainstream left and right collapsing, two centreist parties have emerged, En Marche and Mouvement Democrite (MD). They are very typical of what you'd expect from centreist parties. En Marche (Macron's party) is the current top party. MD is very minor.

The big power in the left is France Insoumise (FI) under Jean-Luc Melenchon, which is populist democratic socialist. It's a bit more left than the average European left but not really hard left. It's perhaps more characterised by populism rather than radicalism. I t's taken over from the PS but also includes a fair chunk of support from the French Communist Party (which traditionally polled quite well ~5-10%).

Then there's the far right, which is Rassemblement National (RN; previously Front National, FN; run by Marine Le Pen). Another far right candidate ran in the election (Zemmour), but he doesn't really have a party. FN were notoriously objectionable and fascistic. Marine Le Pen has been trying to move towards the mainstream to win elections, but underneath it all it's still a lot of ugly populist nationalism and bigotry. They're very anti-EU, anti-immigration and anti-Islam.

Le Pen should take her 23%, plus Zemmour's 7%, plus probably a chunk of Les Republicains and bits and bobs elsewhere. Macron should, in theory, take most everything else. However, much of the French left (PS and FI) may instead not vote in a second round, and that's up to 30% of voters gone. At which point Le Pen is in with a disturbingly good chance.
 

Trunkage

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Ah, picking between Biden and Trump, French edition

Australia just called it's election, so in 6 weeks time we are getting in the booth. I don't like either of the main candidates but some that is better than this French election. Our is more like voting between Macron or Macron.
 

Gordon_4

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Ah, picking between Biden and Trump, French edition

Australia just called it's election, so in 6 weeks time we are getting in the booth. I don't like either of the main candidates but some that is better than this French election. Our is more like voting between Macron or Macron.
Yeah I'm really looking forward to choosing between Scotty from Marketing and Anthony Absenteese (Paul McDermott, I am most certainly not).
 

Worgen

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Whatever, just wash your hands.
Ah, picking between Biden and Trump, French edition
So then you have an obvious better choice who will end up being pretty good?
 

Kwak

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Yeah I'm really looking forward to choosing between Scotty from Marketing and Anthony Absenteese (Paul McDermott, I am most certainly not).
It's not that fucking hard - don't vote for the fucking psycopath who runs the fucking psycopath party.
How anyone can vote lnp and consider themselves not gleefully evil? I fucking despise lnp voters.
 

Thaluikhain

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It's not that fucking hard - don't vote for the fucking psycopath who runs the fucking psycopath party.
How anyone can vote lnp and consider themselves not gleefully evil? I fucking despise lnp voters.
Yeah, we've got "boring business as usual" or "constant failure", one is better than the other. And you can vote minor parties first and give preferences, we have preferential voting for a reason.
 

Generals

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Ah, picking between Biden and Trump, French edition
Not really, Le Pen is unlikely to be as incompetent as Trump.
And Macron... Well, in a way he's kind of like Biden, he always tries to please everybody and ends up pleasing no one.

Our is more like voting between Macron or Macron.
Eh, the LP is (much?) further to the Right than Macron :/ I'd say Morrison is more in line with the right wing of the Les Republicains party.
 

Trunkage

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Eh, the LP is (much?) further to the Right than Macron :/ I'd say Morrison is more in line with the right wing of the Les Republicains party.
I would say that ScoMo is to the right of much of his party. His problem is that he has a major Qanoner in his ear. Although he doesn't follow their lead like Trump does, he has completely fucked up from that advice

The other problem is (and this might be rectified soon with the campaign) they don't stand for anything. It sounds like Scomo has quietly released the refugee prisoners we've been holding for like a decade. I'd give him praise but this is the absolute bare minimum level of treating people as humans
 

Silvanus

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Apparently, Melenchon experiended a bit of a surge in late-counted ballots (tending to be from urban areas), and ended up on 22%, just 1pp behind Le Pen. Figures from Insoumise have suggested informally that a power-sharing arrangement may be possible.
 

Hades

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Apparently, Melenchon experiended a bit of a surge in late-counted ballots (tending to be from urban areas), and ended up on 22%, just 1pp behind Le Pen. Figures from Insoumise have suggested informally that a power-sharing arrangement may be possible.
Between who? Him and Le Pen? They are both Europhobes so that could make sense.
 

Worgen

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Whatever, just wash your hands.
Look, there is a clear best choice. The best choice is just not great
The best choice still ended up being a pretty dang good choice.
 

Agema

You have no authority here, Jackie Weaver
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Between who? Him and Le Pen? They are both Europhobes so that could make sense.
The presidential election is all or nothing - there's no power sharing. However, the legislative election is in June, and Melenchon may be looking at that.

It's worth noting that presidential votes don't necessarily translate to the legislative. Le Pen, for instance, took >20% of the vote in the presidential election in 2017, but her party took few votes in the legislative election such that it barely exists in the legislature. Likewise Melenchon's FI did much worse than Melenchon did, gaining significantly fewer seats than Parti Socialiste. Both of them need to break into the legislature to really make waves.

What I guess they could do is agree is a mutual standing down of legislative candidates in relevant constituencies, and Melenchon will throw his weight behind Macron or Le Pen in return and urge his voters out to back them in the presidential election. However, given prior legislative election performances, I am doubtful whether Le Pen's RN or Melenchon's FI have much firepower here.

I honestly don't think Melenchon can make an agreement with Le Pen without the risk of critically endangering his support. His voters might be deeply apathetic about Macron, but many left wingers could probably not tolerate the stink of actively putting someone with a far right history like Le Pen into the presidency.
 

meiam

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I think this is a good example of achievements being meaningless in politic. Macron did as good of a job on the economy front as could be expected, unemployment greatly decrease under his watch despite covid and the public finance are healthier (again keeping covid in mind). But despite that he's doing slightly worse than last election, when he was just some random guy that no one had heard of less than a year ago.

Voter always say they want results but they always vote like they only care for the spectacle. Now that Macron doesn't have the appearance of being the fresh new face things are harder, despite having a solid record to showcase. And somehow Le Pen, despite being a Putin simp for years and otherwise presenting largely the same thing as last election, is probably going to do slightly better.
 

Seanchaidh

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Third place was Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the socialist La France Insoumise on 20.1%.
Good thing Le Pen made it through, otherwise France might have had a contest about something other than who can be more racist.
 

Agema

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I think this is a good example of achievements being meaningless in politic. Macron did as good of a job on the economy front as could be expected, unemployment greatly decrease under his watch despite covid and the public finance are healthier (again keeping covid in mind). But despite that he's doing slightly worse than last election, when he was just some random guy that no one had heard of less than a year ago.

Voter always say they want results but they always vote like they only care for the spectacle. Now that Macron doesn't have the appearance of being the fresh new face things are harder, despite having a solid record to showcase. And somehow Le Pen, despite being a Putin simp for years and otherwise presenting largely the same thing as last election, is probably going to do slightly better.
There's a simple rule about French politics: almost everyone hates the incumbent president.

But they may well think the other options are worse.
 
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