A few thoughts about January 6, 2021

meiam

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Honestly... w/e. Trump is untouchable somehow, his cult, which is like 90% of the GOP at this point, will never abandon him and he'll find some way to not get into any problem until he's re elected (Biden is learning the tough lesson that even a modicum of competence translate to unpopularity and there's serious discussion of a 3rd party next election, which will pretty much only suck vote away from dem).
 
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SilentPony

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Honestly... w/e. Trump is untouchable somehow, his cult, which is like 90% of the GOP at this point, will never abandon him and he'll find some way to not get into any problem until he's re elected (Biden is learning the tough lesson that even a modicum of competence translate to unpopularity and there's serious discussion of a 3rd party next election, which will pretty much only suck vote away from dem).
This is a man who openly says he wants to fuck his daughter, and the #1 hobby he shares with his daughter is sex, and the cult's response was he's a stand up, moral Christian man, and its perfectly natural for a father to want to fuck his daughter, and if we're all being honest, what father hasn't fucked his daughter? #TrumpDerangement!
 
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Ag3ma

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Honestly... w/e. Trump is untouchable somehow, his cult, which is like 90% of the GOP at this point
Sort of.

Winning the Republican candidacy is one thing, winning the presidency then another. One issue the Republicans have is that their official party is actually a modest proportion of the populace, and a lot of the voters they need to win over are so-called "moderates" and "independents". The GOP might back Trump strongly, but it is much less clear that these other groups are in with the cult. And they might really, really not be keen on another four years of Trump shitshow.

This is why Trump being found guilty, particularly if facing prison, could be extraordinarily damaging. It's an incredibly bad look to put someone found guilty of serious crimes into office at the best of times, and risks alienating a significant number of voters they need.
 

SilentPony

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Sort of.

Winning the Republican candidacy is one thing, winning the presidency then another. One issue the Republicans have is that their official party is actually a modest proportion of the populace, and a lot of the voters they need to win over are so-called "moderates" and "independents". The GOP might back Trump strongly, but it is much less clear that these other groups are in with the cult. And they might really, really not be keen on another four years of Trump shitshow.

This is why Trump being found guilty, particularly if facing prison, could be extraordinarily damaging. It's an incredibly bad look to put someone found guilty of serious crimes into office at the best of times, and risks alienating a significant number of voters they need.
If he is convicted I don't think he can take office. One of the consequences of being found guilty in the Jan 6th case is he's forbidden from holding public office again.
Now of course we've learned the last few years laws are only as strong as the corrupt judge who doesn't follow them, so who knows if that'll even stick.
 

Ag3ma

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If he is convicted I don't think he can take office. One of the consequences of being found guilty in the Jan 6th case is he's forbidden from holding public office again.
Now of course we've learned the last few years laws are only as strong as the corrupt judge who doesn't follow them, so who knows if that'll even stick.
I'm pretty sure that there is no constitutional bar on someone convicted of a felony, or even still currently serving time for that felony, also being president. There is an obvious logic that someone with a criminal felony could be allowed become president, because someone could be convicted in a way later viewed as unjust (e.g. think Nelson Mandela). The president must be barred from holding public office by Congress (i.e. impeachment), not a standard court.

There are articles that could be interpreted as making it impossible for someone in prison to be president - for instance being in prison could be argued to mean that the president is unable to discharge the duties of office. However, who gets to decide that? If Congress, with at least a third of the senators Republican... Mmm.

Would Trump try to pardon himself? I'd like to think that can't stick. Can Trump stand down and make his VP president, the new president pardons Trump, appoints Trump the VP, and then stands down themselves to return the presidency to him? Shenanigans, but if Congress is unwilling to call on it, it may legally stand.

This is the territory of a constitutional crisis. And why I strongly suspect it's not going to come about, because if people really have to face the reality of a convicted man becoming president, I suspect enough of them will get cold feet.
 

SilentPony

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I'm pretty sure that there is no constitutional bar on someone convicted of a felony, or even still currently serving time for that felony, also being president. There is an obvious logic that someone with a criminal felony could be allowed become president, because someone could be convicted in a way later viewed as unjust (e.g. think Nelson Mandela). The president must be barred from holding public office by Congress (i.e. impeachment), not a standard court.

There are articles that could be interpreted as making it impossible for someone in prison to be president - for instance being in prison could be argued to mean that the president is unable to discharge the duties of office. However, who gets to decide that? If Congress, with at least a third of the senators Republican... Mmm.

Would Trump try to pardon himself? I'd like to think that can't stick. Can Trump stand down and make his VP president, the new president pardons Trump, appoints Trump the VP, and then stands down themselves to return the presidency to him? Shenanigans, but if Congress is unwilling to call on it, it may legally stand.

This is the territory of a constitutional crisis. And why I strongly suspect it's not going to come about, because if people really have to face the reality of a convicted man becoming president, I suspect enough of them will get cold feet.
Isn't there a thing in the Constitution that bars people from holding office if they're convicted of espionage or insurrection?
 

Xprimentyl

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Isn't there a thing in the Constitution that bars people from holding office if they're convicted of espionage or insurrection?
There're harsh restrictions on voting for convicted felons in the majority of states, funny given that we'd even have to question the particulars of a felon campaigning to run the whole country. But in the completely fucked up country and potential Trump has exposed us all to, I'd not be surprised if the oval office were moved to cell block G.
 

Ag3ma

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Isn't there a thing in the Constitution that bars people from holding office if they're convicted of espionage or insurrection?
Nope. Okay, to clarify, not as far as I am aware given I am no expert in the Constitution. Of course, one might also point out that the first president of the USA very famously led an insurrection against the previous ruler, so it might have been a bit awkward to specifically prohibit.

I suspect (serving) criminals not being explicitly barred from the presidency could have something to do with the Founding Fathers not expecting it was something that would happen such that it would require being explicitly banned.
 

Kwak

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What's so insane is that the crimes he's accused of aren't unrelated to being president, they literally were committed because he was president, so now they're gong to allow him to run for the same position again that will potentially allow him to do the same.
Just a ridiculous way to run an alleged democracy.
 

SilentPony

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There're harsh restrictions on voting for convicted felons in the majority of states, funny given that we'd even have to question the particulars of a felon campaigning to run the whole country. But in the completely fucked up country and potential Trump has exposed us all to, I'd not be surprised if the oval office were moved to cell block G.
Nope. Okay, to clarify, not as far as I am aware given I am no expert in the Constitution. Of course, one might also point out that the first president of the USA very famously led an insurrection against the previous ruler, so it might have been a bit awkward to specifically prohibit.

I suspect (serving) criminals not being explicitly barred from the presidency could have something to do with the Founding Fathers not expecting it was something that would happen such that it would require being explicitly banned.
I swear I had heard from commentators there was a way, and I think I found it:

Basically you cant hold office if, having already holding an office, commit treason or an insurrection. And its fair to assume Trump was still president on the 6th.
 

Eacaraxe

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Honestly... w/e. Trump is untouchable somehow, his cult, which is like 90% of the GOP at this point, will never abandon him and he'll find some way to not get into any problem until he's re elected (Biden is learning the tough lesson that even a modicum of competence translate to unpopularity and there's serious discussion of a 3rd party next election, which will pretty much only suck vote away from dem).
They're still sucking Reagan's dick to this day, after every social, political, and economic performance indicator that ever has been or ever will be, all prove beyond even the pretense of reasonable doubt that to say he was a dogshit president is an insult to dogshit. Of eight years in office, I can think of one and only one Reagan policy that was an unqualified success, government cheese, and even that's tainted with the stink of his food stamp cuts. Other than that, the only thing I can say about him that isn't completely negative, is at least he wasn't as bad as Millard FIllmore, Herbert Hoover, Warren G. Harding, or Andrew Johnson.

Like it or not, Trump was better than Reagan. If only for the fact he and his administration were just too fucking incompetent to systemically destroy the country's economy quite the way Reagan's did.
 

Thaluikhain

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What's so insane is that the crimes he's accused of aren't unrelated to being president, they literally were committed because he was president, so now they're gong to allow him to run for the same position again that will potentially allow him to do the same.
Just a ridiculous way to run an alleged democracy.
Ah, but what if a sizeable portion of your democracy doesn't want a democracy? Awkward position to be in.
 

Ag3ma

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Basically you cant hold office if, having already holding an office, commit treason or an insurrection. And its fair to assume Trump was still president on the 6th.
He has not, however, thus far been charged with either treason or insurrection, so unless he is that is a moot point.
 

Xprimentyl

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Basically you cant hold office if, having already holding an office, commit treason or an insurrection. And its fair to assume Trump was still president on the 6th.
He has not, however, thus far been charged with either treason or insurrection, so unless he is that is a moot point.
Given the very nature of treason and insurrection, I don't think having held an office before, during, or after such crimes are committed should make much of a difference. But like Ag3ma said, those crimes haven't specifically been leveled at Trump, and I'm sure it's shrewd and convenient interpretations of the law (for better or worse) that such is the case.
 

Ag3ma

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Just a ridiculous way to run an alleged democracy.
"Alleged" is probably the key point.

The USA has arguably not been a healthy democracy for quite a long time. Trump and the wider GOP's assault on the election is, I fear, a critical step further to be the start of a failing democracy. It's not irrecoverable, but I don't see enough people taking significant steps to fix it, either, and likely it's going to get worse. The Republicans have made clear that they are going to double down on everything and simply throw everything at Biden irrespective of how credible, and the end result is going to be little more than further corroding the already heavily tarnished reputation of the US government with its people. (Congress, let's remember, has an approval rating that's been stuck around 20% for nearly two decades - it's funny how they don't think that means anything or reflects a problem.) Meanwhile, they're busy making moves that look very much like legal ways to simply overturn democratic will where they desire.

Behind all this are parallel versions of reality told by different political angles and media empires, involving lashings of disinterest in truth, responsibility, or national interest, but a great deal of interest in power and money. Fox was vastly more bothered by losing viewers than it was by reporting what it believed to be true - even what it's rabidly right wing presenters accepted was true. And if that's the nature of the (dis)information that's feeding the population's views... well, chances are the USA will be having a full-on crisis and schism in due course. The US users of this board probably just need to hope it happens after they're dead, because it will probably be very unpleasant.
 
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Absent

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"Alleged" is probably the key point.
No actual separation between judicial, legislative and executive powers for starters. Congress shits its pants in front of the führer, who selects the Supreme Court judges.
 

Ag3ma

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No actual separation between judicial, legislative and executive powers for starters. Congress shits its pants in front of the führer, who selects the Supreme Court judges.
Trump is the classic problem of a demagogue. He has the fervent support of a huge number of people, and mobilises "the base". To tackle Trump is therefore to risk aggravating those people and losing one's job, whether through deselection or disenchanting the faithful come election time - as numerous Republicans have experienced.

I suspect that were the Congressional Republican Party, en masse (minus of course the growing Trumpist wing), to reject Trump then they might have traction. But there are too many who are weak in character or scared for their seats, and lack a leader that they can get behind. Numerous times, they have made little shuffles towards and tested the waters to kick him to the curb, and every time have recoiled. Sometimes, you've just got to rip that plaster off, rather than try to agonisingly peel it slowly. If they'd firmly dumped him in back 2021 and moved on, he'd probably already be forgotten. The same applies to Fox News.

If Trump is convicted (of anything!), it gives the GOP it's one, clear justification to strip him of candidacy. However, this is what makes me boggle about many of the candidates who are smoothing the way for him. They're both propping him up by defending him against serious charges even as their own poll numbers remain in the mire, and if it comes to a crunch where he's convicted, if they've made the case the conviction is unjust they reduce the ability of the GOP to deselect him. It makes me wonder whether they haven't all basically given up, they're just making a play to be Trump's VP.
 

meiam

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If Trump is convicted (of anything!), it gives the GOP it's one, clear justification to strip him of candidacy. However, this is what makes me boggle about many of the candidates who are smoothing the way for him. They're both propping him up by defending him against serious charges even as their own poll numbers remain in the mire, and if it comes to a crunch where he's convicted, if they've made the case the conviction is unjust they reduce the ability of the GOP to deselect him. It makes me wonder whether they haven't all basically given up, they're just making a play to be Trump's VP.
They've had plenty of opportunity to kick him, on Jan 6, when the phone call of him asking the governor to make up fake vote, when he was found liable of sexual assault by a court and so on. What's one more going to do? Trump wasn't a sudden change, he was a continuation of a shift in the GOP that started in the 2000's.

Ultimately the GOP big problem is that they're not really popular at large, if 100% of the population voted, every state would be deep blue. Their only strategy to survive is to depress vote of everybody except the 30ish% who would vote for them no matter what. That 30ish% is now mostly made up of hardcore Trump voter, as a results of the change in strategy they adopted, so they're stuck with Trump. Their ideal scenario is Trump suddenly dying so they can have big "state funeral" and swear that they'll carry on his legacy, so long as Trump is free to run, they can't go against him. They can't try to expand their vote base by denying Trump because he was always the same, if they start saying that Trump was a monster, people, including the 30%, will start asking why they didn't do something earlier.
 
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CaitSeith

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Trump is now indicted of 4 felonies related to the January 6th (and the overturn of the Presidential election in general)


Ironically Trump has been indicted with the law that would had been used for his election fraud claims (if they hadn't been pure BS in the first place).