David Jaffe Predicts Next Console Generation Will Be the Last

[BlindMessiah94]

He's right, $60 games won't be around forever. They will be replaced by $70, $80, $90 games.
Remember when games were $20? Now used games are that much IF you are lucky.

 

[gyroscopeboy]

Developers need to realize that if the don't make shit games, people are less inclined to trade them in. For example, i purchased GTA4, Fallout 3, F:NV & Assassins Creed, and will never trade them in because they're kick-ass and i regularly come back to play them.
Stop making games with no re-playability and the loss of sales (which isn't really a loss as people were never going to buy them full price anyway) wont be so massive.

 

[BlindMessiah94]

He's right, $60 games won't be around forever. They will be replaced by $70, $80, $90 games.
Remember when games were $20? Now used games are that much IF you are lucky.

Nope, they weren't. Games were always tagged at around $40-60 each, unless they were older games that were discounted to move. Or during that quaint period in 1983 where one could pull Atari games out of a bin for $.99 ea. The second hand market has always existed. Pawn shops and "Mom and Pop" shops, have long been dealing in used games. It's only recently that used games became a significant business model has the industry gone on the offensive against it.

Maybe you are right about the $20 thing. I was mainly remember Computer Gaming, which was my first experience with games. But console games have always been too expensive. I actually rarely buy new titles at the shelf price.

 

[Dr. Pepper Unlimited]

I predict the death of TVs. Radio will reign supreme.

But that just means we're one step closer to the death of radio...and on the brink of a phonograph supremacy!

 

[Draksila]

Okay, am I the only one sick of hearing Jaffe vomit and call it pearls of wisdom? The guy has a successful franchise, I'll grant him that... even if I thought it was crap. But every few days he's making these doom and gloom predictions that are making even the people whining about the Mayan calendar sick of hearing him. Seriously, we just need to start learning to smile, nod, and pat him on the head before we send him back to his corner to color in his Jumbo-Sized Spider-Ham coloring book.

On a helpful note, devs, if you're so worried about the money you're losing to pre-owned and piracy, well... start looking at the root cause (ie, buggy and short games that are reiterations of what we just bought LAST year that aren't worth as much as you're asking for them) and quit trying to play 'Pass the Blame.' You can point the fingers all you want, it won't stop the issue unless you quit dealing with the symptoms and start treating the disease.

 

[jumjalalabash]

Virtual Boy is coming back. I can feel it.

 

[Twilight_guy]

Or maybe the market will shift to smaller scale downloadable games on console or a console marketplace akin to steam. You can't sell downloaded games and although you can still pirate them since you need the internet to have the game require an internet connection (and the DRM that goes with it) won't be quiet as odious. Claiming that the end is nigh because one system is struggling is shortsighted at best. I support the idea that games will evolve and survive. Gaming radial evolution FTW!

 

[Saelune]

He seems like someone who agreed with the bands who said Napster was ruining them.

 

[Vault101]

so its true THE END IS NIGH!!!!!!!

 

[darthricardo]

You know, I think that the entire reason that the PC market's been doing reasonably well, adapting and all that, is precisely because of it being on it's deathbed for the last few years. Adversity begets strength after all.

 

[geizr]

Neither PC gaming nor console gaming is dying, and we are seeing the emergence of new platforms and modes of gaming in the mobile gaming space. The market is big enough to support all the platforms.

However, what is dying is this old mentality of the AAA title. The idea that every game created must be of such design and caliber is what, in my opinion, is breaking the industry. It was not a problem when there were just a couple per year or every two years, but when every game tries to be such, the model becomes over-extended and begins to break down. Game companies can't support creating it, and gamers can't support paying for it.

Game companies are going to have to diversify in all areas of design, development, target audience, marketing, and modes of experience. The AAA title is not sustainable as a universal marketing or gaming strategy. It only works in small bursts.

 

[Captain Bobbossa]

Thats just it though, the market will adapt to take on the challenges that apparantly are dooming us all. I believe extra credits came up with a good idea for countering preowned games in one of their episodes. Plus piracy has been around for ages, affecting both the music and film industries aswell and their still doing fine with no end in sight. Why is it suddenly the end of the world now.

EDIT: I just had a thought about the price of making an AAA game now a days. eventually like everything else technology will get to a point where it can cut down the manpower and time it takes to make such a thing. I think what the industry needs to do is to hold back and chill out for a bit to let technology advance a bit further because at the moment its trying to be ahead of the technology which inevitably is more expensive, difficult and time consuming.

 

[Aedrial]

I predict the death of TVs. Radio will reign supreme.

Pft... Radio is already dead... Viva La Books!

 

[qou2600]

Well I can see the industry shying away from packaged games and going with down-loadable games. The only problem with that is that not everyone has the internet. A solution I propose is that retail stores should have in-store consoles that allow you download a game to your hard-drive. You can just remove your hard-drive from you console bring it into the store and download you games to it.

 

[TheAngryMonkey]

He's an idiot end of story. This whole article was him generating press to ensure his bottom line.

Enough with this used games debate, if I buy something it's mine and if I want to sell it to someone else I will.

Have I bought the game, or just signed a lifetime lease agreement that states that I must hold this game in my possession till I die? And upon your death all gaming related materials, are to burned to ensure no further use.
Stopping Gamestop or who ever wont change anything, unless you take away our rights of personal possession.

But in the end it doesn't really matter; most FPS games are 6hrs long so you rent them; most 3rd person shooters are 8-10hrs long so you just rent them;the only games worth buying now are RPG's that give you 30+ hrs of game play. Of course if your big into multilayer, then yes you have to buy your titles. But I don't play online, so its a non issue to me.

Games are way cheaper on Craigslist, and its just as easy. Send an email, drive over to his place buy the game, save more money than going through a Retailer.

 

[Auron225]

Guys? Did you'se know that next year, they're gonna stop making films. Yup. No more films.

Seriously - I highly doubt console gaming will stop after the next generation. I know it wont last forever but it wont just stop one day and that'll be the end of games - it'll evolve into something else. There isnt anything obvious for it to evolve into yet though - if we dont have PCs or consoles for gaming then what? Its like how films havent altered all that much in so many decades now aside from new technology here and there.

 

[Asuka Soryu]

Everyday someone crys it's the end of consoles/games/pc/blah blah blah

I'm getting really sick and tired of hearing peoples doom speaches.

 

[teknoarcanist]

I sense he's in the right on this one. It's not just the console business, but the entire AAA-tier industry and workflow of game development is changing. All those weird little indie games on XBLA are just the birth-pangs.

I look at things like The Indie Fund http://indie-fund.com/ and it just seems inconceivable to me that in 20 years, the game industry will still exist in the form it does today. It's just not sustainable. It's too closed-off, when there's this whole generation of talent looking to get in.

 

[draythefingerless]

I think he might be right in that the next generation might be the last but for a different reason. In my opinion raw graphics power is approaching its peak and the next generation will probably be the last to need the major hardware upgrades that each new generation has brought.

Prices go up as time goes by. Its called inflation. You waste more, but your wallet has more money too. 10 bucks now, were a fortune 20 years ago. If you want to complain, complain about the fact that i see publishers charging 60 dollars for digitally distributed titles, when they should cost half that, since those 60 bucks in retail are due to shop fee, shipping, physical spending(cd, box, art). There is absolutely no reason a digitally distributed game should cost as much as a retail other than corporate greed.

 

[Baresark]

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Ok, let me just clarify my standpoint.

Theoretically you could improve processors and graphics indefinitely, but the improvement costs increasingly more while impacting the experience increasing less.

The cost of a video game to make has moved from 1 to 4 million to up to 100 million in the last 10 years.

Add on the relative value of money and that becomes around 123 million.

We have reached the point where it is no longer worth it to improve graphics and processors for the purpose of game playing; we probably passed it awhile ago in fact, but nobody noticed.

The hardware has greatly outpaced what software can reasonably be produced.

Maybe in 30 years, we might reach a point where it might be viable for another generation, but I also think we've reached the apathetic point.

The difference is to little, people stop caring. Hell, I stopped caring last generation.

I look at Heavy Rain, then I look at Silent Hill 2. There is a distinct difference, true, but I ask myself "Would Silent Hill 2, have been noticeably improved by Heavy rain level of graphics." and answer "No, not really."

Don't be thinking that's nostalgia talking, I picked up the game 2 months ago.

The idea that perpetual improvement works is a technical and economic hubris, no one cared if their movies were on Blue-ray or HD-DVD; hell no one cares if they're on Blue-ray or DVD.

So yes, you can improve consoles; but it's a pointless and self destructive endeavor.

I see what you're saying. The diminishing return of the whole cycle is pretty far along by now. But, I don't know if I agree completely with what your saying. It's not the cost of hardware that makes creating games what they are today. That is still a failure with the developers and publishers. The first really groundbreaking graphic jumps in games didn't happen because someone thought they were gonna make money off of it, they did it because they really wanted to do it (on the development side). I believe stuff like that will happen, no matter what the industry says.

I agree that many games would not be improved by better graphics. But the idea of constant improvement is not hubris, that is a facet of life. Computer hardware is no different. No one should expect it to stop. I do agree that the extent the hardware pushes does feel like it's logical conclusion sometimes. But all it takes is someone with vision to take it to the next level.

Also, this article discusses the next console generation being the last. The cost of hardware hasn't increased like the cost of software production. It has actually paced very well. The $100 million dollar game budget is a failing of companies, not the console generation. And as hardware becomes even more advanced, it will become cheaper as well. If they were to make a console that was on part with a current mid level computer system, it would blow the current generation away, and it wouldn't cost $600 either. But the software, as long as there are companies like EA and Activision out there, is not going to improve. They think the way to make a better game it to throw more money at it.

And I hate to say it, but gaming schools will only make the salaries of programmers and artists in the industry, decline. Further driving down the price of games.

Ultimately, we agree and disagree on some issues. I'm good with that. At least you put thought behind the things you say, many do not. Thanks for the fun back and forth. =)