Election results discussion thread (and sadly the inevitable aftermath)

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CaitSeith

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Aren't there commissions and government agencies that investigate and check these machines before using them?
I would be surprised if that were the case.
Why? Trump told them not to do it? Trump was the government during the elections, and if the shark among the sharks didn't take precautions in the 3 years he was in power, then he is too inept to keep being President! Zero excuses.
 

Houseman

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Why? Trump told them not to do it? Trump was the government during the elections, and if the shark among the sharks didn't take precautions in the 3 years he was in power, then he is too inept to keep being President! Zero excuses.
Does the POTUS alone even have the power to command that these machines be investigated and checked?
 

CaitSeith

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Does the POTUS alone even have the power to command that these machines be investigated and checked?
Doesn't Trump belong to the GOP? The GOP is pretty much in every branch of the goverment, and if Trump didn't have the power to command it directly, some other of their members sure did.
 
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Agema

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Okay, there's some interesting stuff here.

1)
Ansolabahere makes an objection about the fact that list-matching is based on a faulty technique, using only name and date of birth. However, the rebuttal from that Twitter source is that Braynard's methodology collects data with other relevant information (e.g. address) as a huge gotcha that Ansolabahere is wrong. However, the Twitter rebuttal does not clearly address Ansolabahere's complaint. The mere fact that Braynard had other identifiers from the database does not mean that he used them for list matching. If this is the case and these other data were not used for list matching, then Ansolabahere's criticism of Braynard is correct. Another possibility is that Braynard did use these for list-matching, but failed to explain this in his methodology: which means Ansolabahere is technically wrong only because Braynard failed to accurately describe his methodology. In short, we have no way from the information in that Twitter feed to accurately judge what the situation is.

The next two objections are also not robust rebuttals of Ansolabahere either:

2)
The first claims he authored a paper claiming the NCOA was adequate to determine accurate voter lists. That is not what his paper actually appears to say, as it identifies using the NCOA and other databases - in other words, the NCOA is not used on its own.

3)
The second claims Ansolabahere authored a paper in which he said names and date of of birth were sufficient for 99% reliable unique identifiers within the same database (specifically, Texas). But that's not what Braynard has done here: in list-matching, Braynard is comparing two databases, which is a different task with a different risk of error.
 

Avnger

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Georgia will re-certify their elections with Biden as the winner after a second recount:


And a quote from Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (Republican) that really summarizes this whole thing:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/weve-found-systemic-fraud-overturn-election-georgia-secretary/story?id=74560956 said:
"We've never found systemic fraud -- not enough to overturn the election. We have over 250 cases right now ... but right now we don't see anything that would overturn, you know, the will of the people here in Georgia," Raffensperger, a Republican, told ABC News Chief Anchor George Stephanopoulos during an interview on "This Week."

"There's no doubt in your mind President Trump lost the state of Georgia, lost the election?" Stephanopoulos pressed.

"Yeah ... sad but true. I wish he would have won. I'm a conservative Republican, and I'm disappointed, but those are the results," the secretary said.
 

Houseman

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If I hand you $50 of real money and $50 of fake money, it doesn't matter how many times you count it, you're going to end up with the same amount each time.
 

Silvanus

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If I hand you $50 of real money and $50 of fake money, it doesn't matter how many times you count it, you're going to end up with the same amount each time.
Weren't you agitating for a recount before? Does it only count if it returns the results you want to see?
 

Avnger

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If I hand you $50 of real money and $50 of fake money, it doesn't matter how many times you count it, you're going to end up with the same amount each time.
"We've never found systemic fraud -- not enough to overturn the election. We have over 250 cases right now ... but right now we don't see anything that would overturn, you know, the will of the people here in Georgia," Raffensperger, a Republican, told ABC News Chief Anchor George Stephanopoulos during an interview on "This Week."

"There's no doubt in your mind President Trump lost the state of Georgia, lost the election?" Stephanopoulos pressed.

"Yeah ... sad but true. I wish he would have won. I'm a conservative Republican, and I'm disappointed, but those are the results," the secretary said.

 

Avnger

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Yes, I heard you the first time.
Then why did you reply with an analogy that doesn't fit the situation at all?

A more correct one would be:

"If I hand you $5,000,000 of real money and $50 of fake money, it doesn't matter how many times you count it, you're going to end up with the same amount each time."
 

Houseman

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Then why did you reply with an analogy that doesn't fit the situation at all?
Recounts only find evidence of specific types of fraud. They don't find counterfeit ballots.
I was implying that the recount was worthless, because what they really need is a full forensic audit.

Hence my analogy. Counting counterfeit money doesn't separate the fakes from the real currency.

You can't just do a recount and feel confident that absolutely no fraud happened. If you do, and you are, then you're either in on it or not very intelligent.
 

Avnger

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Recounts only find evidence of specific types of fraud. They don't find counterfeit ballots.
I was implying that the recount was worthless, because what they really need is a full forensic audit.

Hence my analogy. Counting counterfeit money doesn't separate the fakes from the real currency.

You can't just do a recount and feel confident that absolutely no fraud happened. If you do, and you are, then you're either in on it or not very intelligent.
So is the Republican Secretary of State of Georgia "in on it" or "not very intelligent"? He's the one who has greatest level on information about the election, the exact investigations that are ongoing, and the actual fraud that has been found.

"We've never found systemic fraud -- not enough to overturn the election. We have over 250 cases right now ... but right now we don't see anything that would overturn, you know, the will of the people here in Georgia,"
 

Houseman

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Then why are you slandering the man?
I'm not. That was only the logical conclusion based on a prior assumption, that one does "a recount and feel confident that absolutely no fraud happened"

I'm not saying that's his logic. I'm not saying he thinks the recount proves that there was no fraud.
 

Silvanus

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I was implying that the recount was worthless, because what they really need is a full forensic audit.
At this point, I don't think a full forensic audit would make a bit of difference. If it came back and showed a Biden win, the Trump campaign would merely insinuate the auditors were in on it, the poll watchers weren't close enough, etc etc. It wouldn't matter if the poll watchers were 10 centimeters away.

Literally the only thing that could convince the fanatics at this point is a Trump victory. No chain of events that results in a Biden victory, no matter how proven or robust or clear, will be accepted by these people.

Because its not about election security. Its about sheer incomprehension about what happened.
 
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