Rachmaninov said:
BreakfastMan said:
All others? Including the ones that are owned by foreign investors and/or do a lot of business over seas? And the ones that are not exclusively game companies? Or the ones that appeal to genres and niches that Activision and EA don't?
It doesn't matter which genres and niches publisher's games appeal to, because we're not talking about all of the publishers failing to sell games, we're talking about the publishers losing their shareholders.
Yes, it does matter. Troma is not going to close if Paramount or Warner Brothers close. Why? Because Troma appeals to a niche that Warner Brothers and Paramount do not. People aren't going to stop buying Troma films if they can't get Paramount films anymore.
Big investors in companies like these don't just sit on their hands, watching the stock value go up and down, they look for trends. And the best place to find trends, is in the bigger versions of the company you're invested in.
This makes the assumption that all publishers are the same and focus their energy on putting out the same games, which is clearly not the case.
If EA and Activision's stock starts to rise, it's fair to think that you'll see a rise all across the industry.
Not really. It depends on the reasons the stock is going up. If Activision's stock is increasing because people are buying more games in general, then it is fine to assume that everyone else's stock price is going to go up. If Activisions stock is increasing because it made another billion off of COD, it is ridiculous to assume that 2K, for instance, will get a boost to its stock, simply because someone else's stock went up.
BreakfastMan said:
The dissimilarities (of which there are many) are the point. They are the reason why your analogy, and any assertions that you make that are based on that analogy, don't work.
It'd be nice if you stopped saying "It doesn't work!" and start telling me why you think that's the case.
Fine, if you want me to spell it out to you, I will.
Differences between banks and video game publishers:
-Video game publishers sell products, while banks offer services.
-Banks are highly connected to each other through trading of mortgages and securities. Video game publishers are not nearly as tightly connected.
-Banks depend on highly volatile sectors of the economy, housing loans, for a good chunk of revenue. Video game publishers are not.
-Banks sell the same thing. I can get a savings account, a checking account, or a home loan from any bank I set foot in. By comparison, I cannot get an FPS, a sports game, or an RPG at every publisher I get to.
-There is little variation between services that the banks sell. By contrast, there is massive variation between products that video game publishers sell.
-Banks make most of their money through investments. Video game publishers make most of their money from selling products.
Do you think publicly traded publishers can survive if their shareholders abandoned them wholesale?
Doubtful, but we really aren't talking about shareholders abandoning all publishers, are we?
Do you think shareholders with an investment in a small-medium size publisher would be unconcerned by the two largest publishers collapsing?
Some would, others would not.
And also, just in case you were interested, the industry has collapsed before [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_video_game_crash_of_1983] and that was largely the result of the collapse of only one company, instead of two; Atari.
That was because the industry was reliant on Atari for consoles themselves. Completely different situation.