Plurralbles said:
someboredguy said:
Ironically, I expect the PC sales for AC2 will have jumped now that people know that they can remove the obnoxious DRM.
in a perfect world that is exactly what would happen. But no, they'll instead just pirate the entire game and either sales will be the same, or sales will drop. Gamers use this argument all the time, "Pirates aren't consumers and not every pirate copy is a lost sale" but it works in the other way that people who weren't going to buy the game at launch aren't going to buy it now either.
This is a formal logical fallacy. The following is a valid argument:
A1) All things that are Pirates are NOT Consumers
A2) All things that Buy Games are Consumers
Conclusion) Pirates do not Buy Games
This argument works because the middle term, Consumers, creates a necessary disjunction between the entities Pirates and Game Buyers since we know Pirates are not Consumers and to Buy Games one must be a Consumer. It's essentially the transitive property in algebra.
The following is your invalid argument:
A1) All things that are Pirates are Customers Who Do Not Purchase At Launch
A2) All things that are DRM-Avoiders are Customers Who Do Not Purchase At Launch
Conclusion) All things that are DRM-Avoiders are Non-Consumers of Assassin's Creed 2
Problems) Fallacy of Four Terms [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallacy_of_four_terms]
Crucially, this is a logical fallacy because the argument only states the relation of the two groups to a third group, Customers Who Do Not Purchase At Launch, not their relation to each other and then suddenly attempts to link the third entity, DRM-Avoiders, to the fourth entity, 'Things That Will Never Pay For Assassin's Creed 2', in the conclusion without showing its relation to any of the entities in the axioms. It relies on the following logical chain:
A1) All things that are Pirates are NOT things which buy Games
A2) Assassin's Creed 2 is a Game
Conclusion) Pirates will NOT Buy Assassin's Creed 2
Followed by the following illogical deduction:
A1) Pirates will NOT Buy Assassin's Creed 2
A2) Pirates are Customers Who Do Not Purchase At Launch
Conclusion) SOME Customers Who Do Not Purchase At Launch will NOT Buy Assassin's Creed 2
A1) DRM-Avoiders are Customers Who Do Not Purchase At Launch
A2) Pirates are Customers Who Do Not Purchase At Launch
Conclusion) DRM-Avoiders will NOT Buy Assassin's Creed 2
This Affirms the Consequent [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirming_the_consequent] as it assumes that Pirate entails Customers Who Do Not Purchase At Launch ergo Customers Who Do Not Purchase At Launch entails Pirate and invokes the trait 'Non-Consumer' then when we find that DRM-Avoiders entail Customers Who Do Not Purchase At Launch we conclude that Customers Who Do Not Purchase At Launch entails Pirate which invokes 'Non-Consumer' and ascribes it to DRM-Avoiders. This is logically invalid.
To analogise to another situation which works on the underlying fallacious logic of Affirming the Consequent:
Ubisoft is a Games Publisher
This is a Games Publisher
This is Ubisoft
This argument fails to see that whilst being 'Ubisoft' is sufficient to also be 'Games Publisher', being 'Games Publisher' isn't necessarily sufficient to also be 'Ubisoft' because nothing has been stated of the entity 'Games Publisher' other than that it includes 'Ubisoft'; it could also include 'EA', 'BioWare' ad nauseum.
Being a person who avoids a game at launch because of an aversion to DRM entails that one is a member of the same category of people as a Pirate, the category of Customers Who Do Not Purchase At Launch, however, it doesn't state anything else about the qualities of either the pirate or the DRM-avoider. It doesn't state whether the DRM-avoider possesses the crucial quality of Pirates i.e. that they never pay for games regardless of market changes (can never leave the category of non-consumers) or show how being a DRM-Avoider would invoke this quality of Pirates through an entailment.
The valid argument against the following invalid argument, to which you refer as the basis of your invalid argument, is the following:
(Unstated Axiom): All things that are Pirates are Non-Consumers
A1) All things that are Pirates are Copyright Violators
A2) Some things that are Copyright Violators are Non-Consumers
Invalid Creative Industries Conclusion) Preventing Copyright Violators prevents Non-Consumption
This is invalid because, whilst it is true that some things which are Copyright Violators are also Non-Consumers, no dependency is shown between Copyright Violators and Non-Consumers i.e. the entity Copyright Violators isn't shown to need to exist in order for the entity Non-Consumers to exist so there's no reason to believe that eliminating it will have any effect upon Non-Consumers. This is why eliminating Copyright Violation does not entail a sale gained, because a sale gained can only be achieved by eliminating the Non-Consumers, which this does not do. However, this says nothing of what can or cannot be done to coax DRM-Avoiders away from the Non-Consumer group.
Hope this helps to clarify why your statement was incorrect in a slightly more objective manner than just disagreeing.