Interesting and thoughtful as always, but that doesn't mean I agree. I think a lot of your observations are just plain untrue, in fact--you really don't think there was any more dramatic tension in the "second rising" (I really, really don't think it's accurate to call it two arcs--it's one arc with a major setback. He decides to be Batman again, fails miserably, winds up worse off than ever, and only after that does he have any kind of learning experience or meaningful victory)? He got a couple of cool moments in the first half due to having new toys, but they were just action scenes. Even the first "He's back!" moment is just him showing up on the motorcycle while one of the cops is like "Oh, shit!" Compare that to the tension and triumph of the climbing-out-of-the-pit scene and burning his calling card into the side of a skyscraper for the whole city to see. There was only one "rising." He just needed multiple attempts.
As for when he figures out that Selina's more than she appears, I'd say it was when they had the extended ideological conversation about her resentment of the upper class? Just as a guess? If he said something about it beforehand, I'd assume he meant she was a major-league threat and not just a common thief, considering she stole his fingerprints and that's a pretty good indication she was up to something bigger than a pearl necklace.
As for the telling instead of showing, you're absolutely right... about the whole trilogy. That's been something you've had to be willing to ignore about Nolan's filmmaking from day one. They're all stuffed with monologues that explicitly outline the significance of the plot instead of just letting the actions stand for themselves. I for one find a good melodramatic moral monologue kind of fun, even if it's objectively flawed writing. One way or the other, I take issue with the implication that that kind of thing didn't fly in The Dark Knight. The closing scene of that movie is Gordon's voiceover summing up the plot and explaining the title. Harvey Dent accidentally outlines his own character arc in the middle of a dinner conversation in the first act. The Joker's ENTIRE PERSONALITY is unsolicited speeches about his beliefs and motivations. In Batman Begins, Bruce's character development is shown pretty much exclusively in conversations about himself with Ra's, Alfred and Rachel. I love all these movies, but telling instead of showing is absolutely not a problem that first (or even most severely) manifested in Rises.
