Skratt said:
"OMFG, we are losing millions!" (unverifiable ex-post-facto justification for adding expensive DRM that does little if anything to preventing piracy)
It's definitely unverifiable, I agree. The difference is that what the publishers are doing is completely legal
and understandable. They are trying to protect what is theirs. The pirates are trying to take what
isn't. The burden of proof, then, rests upon the criminal.
That said, I don't support the claim that every pirated copy equals "One Lost Full-Price Sale." You're right that this is overstating things. It is equally ridiculous when people claim NO pirated copy equals "One Lost Full-Price Sale." If even
one person has ever heard this conversation:
Friend A: "I'm going to by Game X. It looks good, heard good things, gonna buy it."
Friend B: "Nah, dude. Here, I've got a torrent, just download it."
Friend A: "Sure, send it on over!"
Then they've witnessed a lost sale.
And if even
one pirated copy is a lost sale, the publisher is within their rights to go after the pirate(s). I mean, if someone dipped into your wallet and took $1, would you think, "Aw, heck, it's just a dollar," or would you be focused on, "Bastard went into
my wallet!"
There are a few categories of people out there:
1. People who want a game enough to pay full price.
2. People who want the game, but not enough to pay full price.
3. People who don't want the game at all.
Piracy doesn't effect group 3 in the least. They don't want the game, so they're not even downloading it. Piracy's impact on group 1 is probably pretty minor -- most folks don't trust pirated copies, due to Internet Boogeyman myths, or they just want the game legitimately.
That said, what person couldn't find a reason to say, "Yeah, I wanted to buy it... but, y'know, money's tight. I needed to spend that $60 on something else." So we lose some of group 1 along the way.
It's group 2 that is the biggest concern. This is the group that pirates like to claim "would never have bought the game anyway." Again, that's easy for someone to claim
after they know there's a "free" copy available.
Group 2 is the group that could teach publishers exactly what price point is acceptable. They're the ones that could send the message that results in lower prices. But piracy gets in the way of any message Group 2 might try to send, yelling "FREE FREE!" And sorry, publishers can't compete with free.
There may be a part of group 2 that
would have bought the game at 20% off. Another part, at 50%. Another part, in one of those crazy 80% Steam sales or something.
And I would venture that even the "least interested" pirate would, if piracy was not a 'thing,' pay at least $1 for a game. My evidence?
They were interested enough to obtain and play the game, and that represents greater than "zero dollars" of interest.
The fact is that, if piracy wasn't in the way, publishers would sell all they could to Group 1... and then start
trying different things to attract Group 2. They'd be experimenting, offering deals, packages, sales, incentives, you name it. They'd be doing all that innovating the pirates keep whinging about not happening. But as long as piracy is as widespread as it is, publishers know they can't compete with "Free," so they don't throw money down that hole.
Also looking at what we understand about human beings, the old "Most Pirates Buy Games If They End Up Liking Them" bit is laughable. It makes no sense to pay for something that you already have...
but it's very easy to claim you would. It's warm-fuzzy to say, "If I had liked it, I would have bought it," but it's oh-so-easy to find some minor flaw and say, "But, y'know, I just didn't like it enough..." every time. Are their outliers? Sure -- there are a few weirdos that
actually bought a game after pirating it. There are also a lot of liars who say it just to shut up the anti-piracy people. And there are tons of people who don't claim they have but... well... they know a guy who knew a guy, and surely
someone has done it...
Piracy clearly results in lost revenue. That isn't the same as saying every pirated copy is a lost full-price sale. But if I go onto a farm and salt a quarter of the fields, I doubt saying, "Well, there's no guarantee anything would have grown there anyway" is going to make the farmer feel any less cheated out of his crops.