Lifting Masks = Back to Getting Down With The Sickness

Dalisclock

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Vitamin D is important for immunity, and it does seem to be important for COVID-19. But it does not mean that you shouldn't get vaccinated and that you shouldn't wear a mask. But if you ask me should you use vitamin D supplementation, I'd say absolutely. In fact, I suspect that supplementing with a high dose of vitamin D could be the reason why I didn't get COVID-19 despite living with my sister who had it. I was convinced that I also had it and that I was simply asymptomatic, but when I had my blood checked at the end of 14 day isolation, there was nothing there. Vitamin D is absolutely a tool in your toolbox that you should use. Of course, you should first check your vitamin D levels and talk with your physician. But in most cases it is safe to use.
I'm fine with Vitamin D. I take supplements daily. I also wear a mask indoors in a public place/at work and have been vaccinated and don't go hang around in crowds(and I'm avoiding the public pool for the moment until Delta calms the fuck down). I think it's more of the fact someone here seems to be somewhat obsessed with it over pretty much all over covid measures that has my eyes rolling.

So... How long until the rage against current anti-vaxxers reaches the ones that don't want their 3rd and 4th etc. shots? Sure, if the immunity really is so short-lived that uneven vaccine distribution won't cover enough people at any given time, there is an argument for booster shots, but y'know, the hate is inevitable.
Considering there's a ton of people who don't want to get vaxed at all, or wear masks, or take any Covid prevention measures or allow public institutions to institute mask mandates in said premises(schools, etc) and are VERY VOCAL about it, we're probably a long way before "not having a booster" is even remotely close to the center of the culture wars over this shit.
 
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Agema

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So... How long until the rage against current anti-vaxxers reaches the ones that don't want their 3rd and 4th etc. shots? Sure, if the immunity really is so short-lived that uneven vaccine distribution won't cover enough people at any given time, there is an argument for booster shots, but y'know, the hate is inevitable.
Immunity seems to drop off to some extent. Some studies suggest that although the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are more effective than the Astra-Zeneca early on, they also decline in effectiveness faster so that ~4 months down the line there's not much difference.

Your immune system holds a "memory" of infection via various mechanisms such as antibodies and certain cells, however over time after infection these virus-specific processes tend to decay in quantity. Upon reinfection, they can spin up and facilitate a faster immune response than if you had no immunity at all, but obviously if they have decreased to a very low base it takes more time to ramp up to sufficient activity, so that's more time for a virus to proliferate.

Some data also seems to be suggesting that the delta variant can reach the same viral load in immunised patients as the other variants do in non-immunised patients. That heightened ability to proliferate compared to other variants is probably why it's spreading so well even in heavily immunised populations.
 
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McElroy

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Some data also seems to be suggesting that the delta variant can reach the same viral load in immunised patients as the other variants do in non-immunised patients. That heightened ability to proliferate compared to other variants is probably why it's spreading so well even in heavily immunised populations.
Yes, but it's because the delta variant is infectious enough that the herd immunity requirement is on the level of measles (over 90%). Breakthrough infections are supposedly rare. Though mustn't forget the possibility of a true asymptomatic infection in a vaccinated person, who still then gets a day or two to be a super spreader.

My comment was about Dalisclock's "enthusiastic" attitude about booster shots until the end of days. Are people getting vaccinated now just anti-vaxxers in waiting when they don't want the 11th shot in 2027? Or just the 3rd one next Spring? Government control over people's lives will lead to more frustration and distrust.
 

Dalisclock

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Yes, but it's because the delta variant is infectious enough that the herd immunity requirement is on the level of measles (over 90%). Breakthrough infections are supposedly rare. Though mustn't forget the possibility of a true asymptomatic infection in a vaccinated person, who still then gets a day or two to be a super spreader.

My comment was about Dalisclock's "enthusiastic" attitude about booster shots until the end of days. Are people getting vaccinated now just anti-vaxxers in waiting when they don't want the 11th shot in 2027? Or just the 3rd one next Spring? Government control over people's lives will lead to more frustration and distrust.
Ask me in 2027 if we're losing 1000 people a day to covid variant double omega and half the country has no open ICU beds.
 

Agema

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My comment was about Dalisclock's "enthusiastic" attitude about booster shots until the end of days. Are people getting vaccinated now just anti-vaxxers in waiting when they don't want the 11th shot in 2027? Or just the 3rd one next Spring? Government control over people's lives will lead to more frustration and distrust.
Covid is just going to settle down as an endemic infection, like flu. Thus I think booster shots are likely to remain very much on an optional, voluntary basis, sort of like the flu jab now. The current vaccination push is because covid has wreaked havoc and people want it to end, but once we've settled into the new normal of permanent low level covid, much of the pressure to get a jab will go too, and anti-vaxx sentiment will likewise dribble away into the background too.

The government might make more of a push if there is a particular problem (dangerous new variant, etc.), mind. But I wouldn't expect that for quite a few years at least, and maybe over a decade.
 
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McElroy

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Ask me in 2027 if we're losing 1000 people a day to covid variant double omega and half the country has no open ICU beds.
Okay I'll admit I forgot the US still has a lot of deaths from covid. Here people are more afraid of getting quarantined and institutions keep up restrictions not because of deaths or hospital beds but because tracking down infections is a hassle.
settled into the new normal of permanent low level covid
Well, who knows when it starts to mean easing off restriction guidelines. Right now it's still "mild inconvenience" (and the utter absence of social lives, including for yours truly) over "it still spreads in cities in the south, but there is little worry locally and the few cases can be tracked without trouble". If the immunity decreases and grandparents truly start getting deathly ill again, I fear that will be used (again) as the moral trump card to hate everyone who doesn't comply with whatever people come up with then.
 
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Kwak

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Immunity seems to drop off to some extent. Some studies suggest that although the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are more effective than the Astra-Zeneca early on, they also decline in effectiveness faster so that ~4 months down the line there's not much difference.

Your immune system holds a "memory" of infection via various mechanisms such as antibodies and certain cells, however over time after infection these virus-specific processes tend to decay in quantity. Upon reinfection, they can spin up and facilitate a faster immune response than if you had no immunity at all, but obviously if they have decreased to a very low base it takes more time to ramp up to sufficient activity, so that's more time for a virus to proliferate.

Some data also seems to be suggesting that the delta variant can reach the same viral load in immunised patients as the other variants do in non-immunised patients. That heightened ability to proliferate compared to other variants is probably why it's spreading so well even in heavily immunised populations.
So why isn't someone just developing a new vaccine that works better and doesn't carry the risk of fatal side-effects, or are these vaccines the best there ever will be?
 

Agema

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So why isn't someone just developing a new vaccine that works better and doesn't carry the risk of fatal side-effects, or are these vaccines the best there ever will be?
I would say these vaccines are about as good as it gets.

They generate robust immune system responses and extremely rarely harm anyone, so job done. I don't really see new vaccines somehow doing a much better job. In terms of side effects, given the fundamental issues of shunting this sort of stuff into people, at least some people having side effects of extreme immune system reactions (hypersensitivity / anaphylaxis, clotting disorders, etc.) is pretty much a given. I mean, quite a lot of drugs can randomly kill people too, albeit also usually at very low likelihood. People could play around spending a shitload of money hoping they luck onto the best ever yet, but chances are they won't because some of this can't be reliably desigend for, which is why so many drugs and some vaccines fail clinical trials.

They'll develop new ones for other reasons. Some companies are designing new vaccines even with those already available so embedded in the market, partly because there's money to be made (if they don't already have one) due to there being whole lot of world still to vaccinate. Also thinking that having a vaccine may be valuable longer term - think ongoing annual boosters, as with the flu vaccine, plus also of course in case of a variant needing another mass program, as having something relatively easy to modify is easier than making from scratch.

But they're unlikely to be doing this in the expectation that their product will be better than the alternatives out there, just competitive is good enough. Just like half the cars on the market could be done away with because there are other cars objectively better for a similar price, but the companies know good enough gets them a slice of market and profits.
 
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Kwak

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I would say these vaccines are about as good as it gets.

They generate robust immune system responses and extremely rarely harm anyone, so job done. I don't really see new vaccines somehow doing a much better job. In terms of side effects, given the fundamental issues of shunting this sort of stuff into people, at least some people having side effects of extreme immune system reactions (hypersensitivity / anaphylaxis, clotting disorders, etc.) is pretty much a given. I mean, quite a lot of drugs can randomly kill people too, albeit also usually at very low likelihood. People could play around spending a shitload of money hoping they luck onto the best ever yet, but chances are they won't because some of this can't be reliably desigend for, which is why so many drugs and some vaccines fail clinical trials.

They'll develop new ones for other reasons. Some companies are designing new vaccines even with those already available so embedded in the market, partly because there's money to be made (if they don't already have one) due to there being whole lot of world still to vaccinate. Also thinking that having a vaccine may be valuable longer term - think ongoing annual boosters, as with the flu vaccine, plus also of course in case of a variant needing another mass program, as having something relatively easy to modify is easier than making from scratch.

But they're unlikely to be doing this in the expectation that their product will be better than the alternatives out there, just competitive is good enough. Just like half the cars on the market could be done away with because there are other cars objectively better for a similar price, but the companies know good enough gets them a slice of market and profits.
So the blood clot risk in under 40s from astra zeneca isn't seen as a mystery to solve and improve the product?
 

Agema

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So the blood clot risk in under 40s from astra zeneca isn't seen as a mystery to solve and improve the product?
As far as I am aware, there are suggestions that they all increase blood clot risk. It's just AZ's got spotted first and/or had more bad press. Contextually, of course, covid is more dangerous in terms of blood clots than any of the vaccines.

Someone's claimed its the adenovirus vector in the AZ vector, which sounds plausible enough to me, so it could in theory be prevented by a different vector, but I suspect other vectors may have their own problems anyway.
 
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stroopwafel

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Promising results for mRNA based HIV vaccine:


The pandemic has really been a boon for the breakthrough of these types of vaccines. They can tinker the mRNA vaccine to provide very specific immune responses. Who knows what other diseases it can provide immunity for.
 

hanselthecaretaker

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I would say these vaccines are about as good as it gets.

They generate robust immune system responses and extremely rarely harm anyone, so job done. I don't really see new vaccines somehow doing a much better job. In terms of side effects, given the fundamental issues of shunting this sort of stuff into people, at least some people having side effects of extreme immune system reactions (hypersensitivity / anaphylaxis, clotting disorders, etc.) is pretty much a given. I mean, quite a lot of drugs can randomly kill people too, albeit also usually at very low likelihood. People could play around spending a shitload of money hoping they luck onto the best ever yet, but chances are they won't because some of this can't be reliably desigend for, which is why so many drugs and some vaccines fail clinical trials.

They'll develop new ones for other reasons. Some companies are designing new vaccines even with those already available so embedded in the market, partly because there's money to be made (if they don't already have one) due to there being whole lot of world still to vaccinate. Also thinking that having a vaccine may be valuable longer term - think ongoing annual boosters, as with the flu vaccine, plus also of course in case of a variant needing another mass program, as having something relatively easy to modify is easier than making from scratch.

But they're unlikely to be doing this in the expectation that their product will be better than the alternatives out there, just competitive is good enough. Just like half the cars on the market could be done away with because there are other cars objectively better for a similar price, but the companies know good enough gets them a slice of market and profits.
Furthermore, the irony -

(Not sure why hyperlink previews don’t work on certain links, hmm)
 

CM156

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Promising results for mRNA based HIV vaccine:


The pandemic has really been a boon for the breakthrough of these types of vaccines. They can tinker the mRNA vaccine to provide very specific immune responses. Who knows what other diseases it can provide immunity for.
Hopefully Malaria, too. Over 400,000 deaths a year.
 
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Agema

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Furthermore, the irony -

(Not sure why hyperlink previews don’t work on certain links, hmm)
Mm.

I think the article is perhaps an interesting sort of thought piece, but there's fundamentally no good argument "We had the vaccine all along" if no-one knew it was safe or worked: we have to remember that several vaccines discovered about as quickly failed trials (e.g. Sanofi, Merck), and the Sinovac vaccine only just squeaked through.

It does illustrate great news about vaccines that design systems have become so advanced that we can do it that quickly; the real hitch is only ever going to be trials to make sure they are safe and work.

Incidentally, many of the same principles of design go into drugs, except because of differences how drugs work compared to vaccines it's one hell of a lot harder to design / predict safety and efficacy.
 

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Speaking of lying, Jesus Christ that second link. To be clear, I am vaccinated, I am for vaccines, I don't think race is a significant influence on vaccination (the average age of racial minorities in America is lower than white people, older people are more vaccinated. Hey, I solved the correlation on the first guess!)

But that is just insanely dishonest use of statistics. They say the unvaccinated are "overwhelmingly white", and then show you this graphic:

but like, the country is majority white people. Those super unequal bars imply an unvaccinated population that is only marginally whiter than the population in total. And you might be thinking, "that's that data, they're just showing the real data, that's not dishonest", but if you follow the link to their source, it looks like these, for wait and see and definitely not respectively:
1629470477916.png 1629470429835.png
Which, frankly, the math doesn't even check out. Here I thought I was going on a rant about choosing to display accurate statistics in a dishonest way, but then the math isn't even correct. Maybe the numbers in the source changed since they wrote the article, but the article is from July, and the source numbers are from July, so unless they redid that polling in the same month, that seems unlikely. I guess I don't know exactly what population statistics they used to convert the numbers, but unless they think the Democratic Party is 4 times the size of the Republican Party... like, independents are a larger percentage of America, are 80% as likely as Republicans to say definitely not, and yet are somehow implied to be a much smaller percent of the definitely nots. I don't know, I think they messed up the algebra.

It doesn't matter, I'm getting sidetracked. Let's just say the data was updated since they wrote the article, and their statistics properly reflect the data set. The source looks like this:
And then someone at VOA News decided that asking what percentage of different demographics hold certain views on vaccines was less important than what percentage of people holding certain views fall in different demographics, because the majority of people never getting vaccinated being white is a better headline than an almost exactly average rate of white people never wanting to get vaccinated. Even if they did the right conversions with accurate numbers, adding in the US demographic breakdown makes the numbers less useful. It's a lot like when people try to make maps of data, and it just ends up being a population density map.
This subreddit is good for a chuckle. I just can't believe they converted that data for any purpose other than claiming the unvaccinated are mostly white.
 

Agema

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Which, frankly, the math doesn't even check out.
The graphic is defnitely sub-optimal to illustrate the point of its title.

I don't see what's wrong with the maths. For black people, 65% vaccinated + 5% ASAP + 11% wait and see + 2% if required + 16% definitely not = 99%. For white people, 70 + 3 + 8 + 2 + 15 = 98%; Hispanics 61 + 5 + 16 + 6 + 11 = 99%. The differences from 100% will just be rounding error.

This all seems okay.

There is no reason that they can't also get from this the numbers in the graphic you show. But the numbers almost certainly come from their polling sample, which may differ from national demographics - which would be another reason the graphic you object to is suboptimal, because without clear reference to national demographics it's pretty vacuous.
 

tstorm823

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The graphic is defnitely sub-optimal to illustrate the point of its title.

I don't see what's wrong with the maths. For black people, 65% vaccinated + 5% ASAP + 11% wait and see + 2% if required + 16% definitely not = 99%. For white people, 70 + 3 + 8 + 2 + 15 = 98%; Hispanics 61 + 5 + 16 + 6 + 11 = 99%. The differences from 100% will just be rounding error.

This all seems okay.
The problem is the conversion from percent of each demographic holding an opinion in the source to percent of opinion represented by each demographic shown in the article. So like, 60% of the US is white non-hispanic, the source says 15% of whites are definitely not vaccinating, which is theoretically 9% of the US that is white people not vaccinating. That 9% divided by the total 14% of the people that said definitely no is 64.3%. If you include Hispanic white Americans as white, the US is 72% white, but if you use that number, then 77.1% of the definitely nos are white. Neither of those numbers match the 69% in the graph, and that's what I caught first, but it's not the most blatant example.

If you look at the party affiliation breakdown, it's way off. Republicans are 20% no, Independents 16% no, Democrats 5% no. By party affiliation in general, each major party has 25-30% of people affiliated with or leaning towards them, and independents are about 40%. Do the math, and the definitely no group should be somewhere about 43% Republican, 46% independent, and 11% Democrat, but the article has 18% Democrat and 58% Republican, with independents just left out but presumably less than 24% or else it would sum over 100%. I genuinely don't know what they did with these numbers.

There is no reason that they can't also get from this the numbers in the graphic you show. But the numbers almost certainly come from their polling sample, which may differ from national demographics - which would be another reason the graphic you object to is suboptimal, because without clear reference to national demographics it's pretty vacuous.
Nah, it's not that either. The article links to the source. The source links to a google doc.
Which has the polling sizes listed and it still doesn't get to the numbers in the article any way I've tried to smoosh them together. If you find an answer to this mystery, please let me know, cause this is gonna bother me all weekend.

Edit: I did not know this forum integrated google docs that way. That's pretty darn sweet.
 

Baffle

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Right dead fred.

(it's okay, it's not in bad taste, he's only been hospitalised, he's not dead yet.)
 

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You're so full of shit, dude. I'm out.
How am I full of shit, you said something I didn't say and all I did was say I didn't say that cuz I didn't.


My eyes long since glazed over due to the rampant obsession with Vitamin D over masks, vaccines or pretty much anything else.

Its like watching an essential oils Evangelical except with Vitamin D.
People don't actually look at the data, they only go by public health messaging. It's why people wear masks outside, there isn't a single data point saying masks work outside yet people wear them outside.


Already posted, learn to read.

Already posted, learn to read.
Nope, Nope. You didn't post anything, I read it all, you just made some random claim with no evidence whatsoever. If masks worked during the Spanish Flu then where's all these stories citing masks working then to get people to mask today? If masks worked back then, you'd just be able to point to it and say wear a mask now. Where's the say CNN article or whatever about masks worked before thus we should wear them now?


No, actually there are examples of hypercalcaemia at 5,000 IUs Vit D daily, although normally associated with other conditions and intake of other supplements. But that is after all the point of recommended doses, precisely to ensure people get enough without getting too much.
So other conditions and other supplements. I believe a papers have said 10,000 is perfectly safe. And, you just gotta take it with vitamin k if you're really concerned.

I do not think that announcing you are completely ignorant is a good gambit to establish your credibility. But at least you are finally admitting your ignorance.
What you said has been proven wrong or at least how much you think it has an affect. If people with vitamin d deficiency just needed one big dose to get them back to normal, then there'd be data on that and there isn't. If someone says the world is flat you don't need to prove it to them with scientific equations and curvatures and whatnot, you can just show them a picture of the earth.


And the fact you think that is precisely why it would help if you understood pharmacokinetics. Clearance occurs usually through first order kinetics (exponential decay). The more you have, the faster you clear it. So if someone clears 30% of a drug daily, starting the drug at day 1, 50mg once weekly actually means that on day 7 they have less drug in their body than someone taking 4mg daily. They take another 50mg day 8, but again they are below the person taking the daily dose at day 12. And so on.

That basic principle holds with vitamin D, although it's rather more complex.
Show me any study that shows a single big dose of vitamin d will get someone up to normal levels from deficient levels because that is what you argued. Where's the data to prove it?
This, biologically, makes absolutely no sense at all. If you take a huge, single bolus of vitamin D3, once absorbed it will start being converted into the 25OHD and then the active form of vitamin D by liver enzymes immediately, and tissue delivery will occur rapidly.
-
Sure. Not everyone is equal - they may have poor absorption or metabolism, and also, "the levels they wanted them to be" sounds awfully vague. Maybe those levels are stupidly and unnecessarily high.
So 3 doctors that all take over 3,000 IUs a day just so happen to have poor absorption? At least 2 were under 30ng/ml taking 2,000/day. Fauci takes 6,000/day, no clue what his levels are or his goal though.

Yes, now put that in the context of you declaring masks are unnecessary outside, even in crowded places where people are in close proximity.
Chicago had Lollapalooza and look at all the people bunched together outside and no super spreader event. So what data shows you masks are needed outside in any circumstance?

Yawn. Again ignoring the bigger picture.
Show me a good mask study, something on par with what is needed to show a drug is effective. I really don't get how you hate all these other studies saying they aren't good enough. Compare to even those poor studies, mask studies are horrendously bad.

So... How long until the rage against current anti-vaxxers reaches the ones that don't want their 3rd and 4th etc. shots? Sure, if the immunity really is so short-lived that uneven vaccine distribution won't cover enough people at any given time, there is an argument for booster shots, but y'know, the hate is inevitable.
There is some data to lead one to believe the vaccines might not work in the sense that they might not provide a proper B and T cell response for long-term immunity. It's very early for that theory to be very substantive but it could be a possibility. We already know that natural immunity lasts 8+ months and if the vaccines can't even do that, then that's not good.

I'm fine with Vitamin D. I take supplements daily. I also wear a mask indoors in a public place/at work and have been vaccinated and don't go hang around in crowds(and I'm avoiding the public pool for the moment until Delta calms the fuck down). I think it's more of the fact someone here seems to be somewhat obsessed with it over pretty much all over covid measures that has my eyes rolling.
There's basically no risk getting covid at the pool outside. The sun kills it (fact), chlorine kills it (fact), the air disperses it. I'm sure there's not an absolutely 0% chance of getting covid at the pool but you got a much bigger chance of drowning than getting covid. I really don't understand why people have drastically changed what their acceptable risk levels are. Driving to the pool is more dangerous and you'd do that before the pandemic right? Doing anything inside in public is where the danger is at.