Michael Pachter Predicts Wii U Failure

AzrealMaximillion

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gardian06 said:
so he called the Wii "gimmicky" then it sells comparatively to the PS3, and now he's saying that the WiiU will never stand a chance. this means that if he has any consistency the WiiU will sell better then the NextBox.
Hardware sales are what the Wii has the advantage in, Software sales is another story completely. Seriously how many 3rd party games flopped on the Wii?
 

PedroSteckecilo

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I would say the big problem is that the "General Public" seems very confused by the WiiU, I'm pretty sure people will either think it's a "Wii Peripheral" like Wii Fit or a Nintendo Tablet and will either ignore it or be disappointed by it. As for the "core" audience... well... Nintendo is behind the times in terms of hardware and is unlikely to get the shiniest newest games... so perhaps Patcher is right.
 

AzrealMaximillion

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PedroSteckecilo said:
I would say the big problem is that the "General Public" seems very confused by the WiiU, I'm pretty sure people will either think it's a "Wii Peripheral" like Wii Fit or a Nintendo Tablet and will either ignore it or be disappointed by it. As for the "core" audience... well... Nintendo is behind the times in terms of hardware and is unlikely to get the shiniest newest games... so perhaps Patcher is right.
This is true, like for Christ's sake CNN didn't even know that the WiiU was just a controller. When one of the biggest news companies is at E3 and doesn't know what the hell you're selling, you have major issues. If CNN didn't know, casual customers will have no clue.
 

Epona

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PedroSteckecilo said:
I would say the big problem is that the "General Public" seems very confused by the WiiU, I'm pretty sure people will either think it's a "Wii Peripheral" like Wii Fit or a Nintendo Tablet and will either ignore it or be disappointed by it. As for the "core" audience... well... Nintendo is behind the times in terms of hardware and is unlikely to get the shiniest newest games... so perhaps Patcher is right.
Nintendo has done nothing to remedy this either. The WiiU itself looks too similar to the Wii and the name WiiU is too similar to Wii. They are going to run into the same problem they had with the 3DS, that people think it's just a redesigned Wii and not a completely new console.

See, the thing is, the Wii is pretty cheaply made and I understand that considering Nintendo was coming off of two generations where they weren't on top but there is no excuse this time around. They had the money to spend to make a true next gen console and they made a current gen console, just like they did with the Wii. They don't even include a HDD which has become pretty standard.
 

Epona

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CriticKitten said:
Didn't this same guy predict the failure of the Wii? You know, that vastly popular console that sold more units than either of its competitors despite having next to ZERO games in terms of third party support?

And he's now predicting that the Wii U will fail even though it boasts significantly larger third party support than its predecessor?


While he expresses a fair point (namely that Nintendo's die-hard fans will buy just about anything of theirs), the same could be said of any console or studio or franchise. It's not really indicative of anything, nor is it a profound statement. "Brand loyalty usually yields sales regardless of quality" isn't exactly a goddamn news flash.

AzrealMaximillion said:
Well the Wii didn't exactly leave a great taste in the mouth if the Nintendo fanbase so he does have some cred. Seriously do you think that the casual crowd of consumers that bought the Wii in the first place bought more than 5 games max?
You seem to be missing the point.

Any sale = net profit for Nintendo. Their first party games are made on the cheap, and the Wii was the only one of the three new consoles making a profit per unit sold. Even if we assume every single person who owns a Wii never bought more than five games (and I have more than that in my personal collection so I'm living proof that you're wrong), that's still 1 console + 5 games worth of profit. More if they bought extra peripherals like more controllers, steering wheels, Wii Plus, Wii Fit boards, and so on (which is where Nintendo REALLY raked in the cash). So while you consider a single console and five games to be "bad", in Nintendo's mind you've done plenty for them already, and any more games would be icing on the cake.

If the Wii U did precisely the same thing in terms of sales, it'd mean MASSIVE profits for Nintendo and would not, by any stretch of the word, constitute a "failure" as this man is saying it will be. While Sony or Microsoft focus on making their games look amazing in HD and beefing up their hardware in the hopes that game sales will recoup the costs, Nintendo produces cheaper consoles and games, and then sits back and rakes in the profits from them. So the mark that Nintendo needs to hit to be "successful" in their minds is much lower than the mark Sony or Microsoft need to hit. Hell, the Gamecube was financially "successful" for them despite being by far the weakest of its generation....if they can turn a profit on that piece of trash, they can do it with this console too.

It's not like Nintendo really has to do very much work with this console to make it a success anyways. But the fact that they're offering significant incentives to developers to produce games for their console, and the inclusion of the more standard handheld controller, are all clear efforts to bring third party developers back into the fold. I think this guy is significantly underestimating Nintendo, just like he did with the Wii, and time will prove him wrong.
We are more concerned with how well the WiiU will satisfy the desires of the gaming community, not how much money Nintendo makes. I am sure Nintendo appreciates how much you care for their bottom line but we really don't.

As you said, the Gamecube was financially successful but what does that mean for gamers? It means nothing. The Wii was REALLY financially successful but what do we care, it's just collecting dust for most of us.

Nintendo's lack of regard for core gamers this gen is coming back to bite them while the casual gamers they chased probably moved on to playing games on their phones.
 

medv4380

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AzrealMaximillion said:
Well the Wii didn't exactly leave a great taste in the mouth if the Nintendo fanbase so he does have some cred. Seriously do you think that the casual crowd of consumers that bought the Wii in the first place bought more than 5 games max? Furthermore do you think that they'll buy another console in general if they don't game that much to begin with? Seriously we've seen how casuals react over time with the massive fall in profits for Zynga as well as Nintendo's own losses that have been posted. He may be right on this one.
Then you shouldn't be saying that he's right ether because he'e saying that Nintendo Hard Core Gamers would be buying the system, but you're saying that they didn't like it.

Before you start pulling number out of thin air you might actually Try to lookup the attach rate for the Wii. It's currently around 8 games per system which is pretty good given the large number of Casual gamers. PS3 is about 8 as well and the 360 is about 9 but I think the 360 number is deflated due to inflated hardware sales from RROD, but there is no way to adjust for that. Digital says are also excluded but those could only increase the numbers not decrease.
 

Trishbot

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Patcher: "I didn't talk to Activision, but I KNOW that..." .... you know that Patcher just talks out of his butt and gets paid to do it.

Seriously, Patcher is the guy that said Borderlands was "sent out to die", that the Nintendo DS and Wii were going to flop, that $250 for the 3DS was reasonable for most people, that Xbox Live's price was going to double and Kinect was only going to be $50, that Grand Theft Auto V was going to be out in 2010, that Team Bondi's employee complaints were overstated (they weren't), and that the 360, Wii, and PS3 would be the last generation of consoles to ever exist.

Seriously, Patcher has crusaded against Nintendo's weird-but-successful business practices all generation like a Nintendo Zapper killed his parents or something.

There's even the running joke that "whatever Patcher predicts, the opposite will come true."

The only prediction I recall him getting right was "I bet Call of Duty sells a lot this year". And he was paid to make that prediction.
 

AzrealMaximillion

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CriticKitten said:
You seem to be missing the point.

Any sale = net profit for Nintendo. Their first party games are made on the cheap, and the Wii was the only one of the three new consoles making a profit per unit sold.
Now Nintendo is the only company in the big 3 that has posted losses, you glossed over that.
Even if we assume every single person who owns a Wii never bought more than five games (and I have more than that in my personal collection so I'm living proof that you're wrong)
No you're not living proof of much actually. Look back at what I said. I said that most casual gamers do not have more than 5 games max in their collection. The casual market is a big chunk of who bought the Wii.

More if they bought extra peripherals like more controllers, steering wheels, Wii Plus, Wii Fit boards, and so on (which is where Nintendo REALLY raked in the cash).
Nice try but most of the Wii's peripherals came bundled with games at next to no extra cost with the exception of the Wii Fit Board. And again, Nintendo didn't really rake in the cash considering they're posting losses this year.
So while you consider a single console and five games to be "bad", in Nintendo's mind you've done plenty for them already, and any more games would be icing on the cake.
Not really, if none of those 5 titles are 3rd party games, which most likely they aren't because we're talking about the casual market that Nintendo targeted, 3rd party developers tend to give up/ scale back on releasing for the console that doesn't make them money. Capcom, and Sega have gone on record as saying that they've given up on making core games for the Wii because there's not enough core gamers to make any profit. It's the same reason that the No More Heroes PS3/360 port sold 60% better on the PS3 and 50% better on the 360 in its opening week than it did on the Wii. The audience is not there.

If the Wii U did precisely the same thing in terms of sales, it'd mean MASSIVE profits for Nintendo and would not, by any stretch of the word, constitute a "failure" as this man is saying it will be.
But it won't. When the Wii was announced, there was excitement in the air. When the WiiU was announced people said 'meh' and Nintendo's stocks dropped.[quote While Sony or Microsoft focus on making their games look amazing in HD and beefing up their hardware in the hopes that game sales will recoup the costs, Nintendo produces cheaper consoles and games, and then sits back and rakes in the profits from them.[/quote] You've effectively said the same argument in 3 different ways at this point. Also your ignoring the 3rd party developers and publishers, you know, the biggest portion of game creators. They can't sell core games on the Wii even with scaled back graphic so why the hell should they bother with the WiiU, we'll see if Mass Effect 3's WiiU sales even make it to half of what it sold on any other platform. [quote So the mark that Nintendo needs to hit to be "successful" in their minds is much lower than the mark Sony or Microsoft need to hit.[/quote] Again, no. They're the only company with losses posted currently. The PS3 and 360 have made profits for Sony and MS. Nintendo needs to recoup it's half a billion dollar losses and selling less than the competition ain't gonna cut it.
Hell, the Gamecube was financially "successful" for them despite being by far the weakest of its generation....if they can turn a profit on that piece of trash, they can do it with this console too.
The Gamecube had a wide array of sleeper hit exclusives and franchises to fall back on. It actually utilized fresh ideas to make up for its lack of power, something the Wii flopped very, very, very hard at.

It's not like Nintendo really has to do very much work with this console to make it a success anyways. But the fact that they're offering significant incentives to developers to produce games for their console, and the inclusion of the more standard handheld controller, are all clear efforts to bring third party developers back into the fold.
What they need to do to get the 3rd party into the fold is promote the 3rd party's damn games. Nintendo can throw all the "incentives" they want at devs but if the console is marketed towards the casual market the devs will not care.
I think this guy is significantly underestimating Nintendo, just like he did with the Wii, and time will prove him wrong.
Well time already showed us that Nintendo's lack of innovation and 3rd party support equals half a billion dollars in losses. Time will also show that with the WiiU coming out and being the most expensive console on the market for at least a year while the PS3 and 360 undercut it will hurt it. Time will also tell that with the Wii U only being able to technologically compete with the current gen even as a next gen console will hurt it in the long run. Hell right now I can tell you that Nintendo is mirroring the mistakes that Sega made with its consoles back in the 90s.
 

Meight08

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Fappy said:
I honestly agree with him. The main issue, in mind, is that the Wii U's hardware will fall behind again in the next gen and it will getting shitty 3rd party support again... only this time all of the casuals will be playing games on their iPhones.
You honestly think sony or microsoft will make consoles sold at a loss again?
They have only just started making a decent profit they will just make them so they turn a profit right out of the gate which will limit possible tech.
 

Revnak_v1legacy

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And this man is also a fuckwit who's opinions on video games are as credible as Trump's opinions on birth certificates.

Why the fuck should I care what Patcher, the biggest moron who claims to be in the industry, says?
 

AzrealMaximillion

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medv4380 said:
AzrealMaximillion said:
Well the Wii didn't exactly leave a great taste in the mouth if the Nintendo fanbase so he does have some cred. Seriously do you think that the casual crowd of consumers that bought the Wii in the first place bought more than 5 games max? Furthermore do you think that they'll buy another console in general if they don't game that much to begin with? Seriously we've seen how casuals react over time with the massive fall in profits for Zynga as well as Nintendo's own losses that have been posted. He may be right on this one.
Then you shouldn't be saying that he's right ether because he'e saying that Nintendo Hard Core Gamers would be buying the system, but you're saying that they didn't like it.

Before you start pulling number out of thin air you might actually Try to lookup the attach rate for the Wii. It's currently around 8 games per system which is pretty good given the large number of Casual gamers. PS3 is about 8 as well and the 360 is about 9 but I think the 360 number is deflated due to inflated hardware sales from RROD, but there is no way to adjust for that. Digital says are also excluded but those could only increase the numbers not decrease.
I'll be honest, I did pull the 5 max games out of my ass as an estimate, but for you to combat me with a number that has no link attached to it is hilarious.

You're also forgoing a couple of factors.
1. Your attach rate does not differentiate the difference between core Wii gamers and non core Wii gamers, so by default your attach rate for casual gamers on the Wii is inflated.
2.Most casual gamers do not buy 3rd party games on the Wii, too many of them flopped because of the casual market for anyone to say otherwise. With the Wii's hardware sales even games like Zack and Wiki as well as MadWorld should have sold enough to profit, but they didn't because Nintendo marketed vigorously towards casual gamers. Hell, the PS2's sales numbers make it the KING console of sleeper hits. A lot of sleeper hit games on the PS2 sold enough to garner the Greatest Hits tag just because of how many units the PS2 sold. Case and point, Shadow of the Colossus and God Hand both sold well and in today's gaming market would have no business doing so on the Wii.
 

AzrealMaximillion

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rolfwesselius said:
Fappy said:
I honestly agree with him. The main issue, in mind, is that the Wii U's hardware will fall behind again in the next gen and it will getting shitty 3rd party support again... only this time all of the casuals will be playing games on their iPhones.
You honestly think sony or microsoft will make consoles sold at a loss again?
They have only just started making a decent profit they will just make them so they turn a profit right out of the gate which will limit possible tech.
They both sold console at a loss but made profit in the software sales. It makes sense to me, especially since they charge developers for the license to put games on their console for every game made.
 

Trishbot

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You want to know the difference between an analyst and a troll? How they phrase things.

Nintendo "gave in" to Activisions demands for a classic controller.

Nintendo listened to developer feedback and proved they're willing to cater to developers' needs and interests to encourage future support with their new system.

See? Same situation, different spin. There's no reason why Patcher had to spin Nintendo's (possible) acceptance of a more traditional controller as a BAD thing, like they gave up their integrity or something to allow for more accessibility on their system.
 

ZippyDSMlee

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The GC did better than the WII but the WII sold at a profit that plus hard marketing made Nintendo this gen, sadly this 1.5 WIIU system won't do as well.
 

Meight08

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AzrealMaximillion said:
rolfwesselius said:
Fappy said:
I honestly agree with him. The main issue, in mind, is that the Wii U's hardware will fall behind again in the next gen and it will getting shitty 3rd party support again... only this time all of the casuals will be playing games on their iPhones.
You honestly think sony or microsoft will make consoles sold at a loss again?
They have only just started making a decent profit they will just make them so they turn a profit right out of the gate which will limit possible tech.
They both sold console at a loss but made profit in the software sales. It makes sense to me, especially since they charge developers for the license to put games on their console for every game made.
Yes but you need massive software sales to compensate for the massive loss they made.
The xbox 360 was sold at a loss of 126 dollars that means every gamer needed to buy 12! games to compensate.
12!
How long does it take you to buy 12 60 dollars a pop games for your console, That's a total of 720 dollars worth of software sales per person! And that is not counting the consoles produced that haven't even been sold yet!
 

Trishbot

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ZippyDSMlee said:
The GC did better than the WII but the WII sold at a profit that plus hard marketing made Nintendo this gen, sadly this 1.5 WIIU system won't do as well.
The Wii FAR outsold the Gamecube, AND the Wii was always sold on a profit. I believe the Wii is actually the second most-successful console of all time, behind the Playstation 2.

So, Patcher's claim that they 'got lucky' with the 2nd most popular console ever made is pretty ballsy of him. Stupid, but ballsy.
 

-|-

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rolfwesselius said:
How long does it take you to buy 12 60 dollars a pop games for your console, That's a total of 720 dollars worth of software sales per person! And that is not counting the consoles produced that haven't even been sold yet!
That's 2 or 3 games a year. Most people I know that own consoles will easily exceed that - so no, I don't think it's uncommon.