Michael Pachter Predicts Wii U Failure

[SenseOfTumour]

All I could think after reading 'Michael Pachter' was...

'Can I buy shares in Nintendo before the Wii U launches?'

I'm assuming someone pays this guy to spew out nonsensical drivel at seemingly random moments?

I mean hell, a magic 8 ball would get it right SOME of the time just out of basic probability.

I predict all three consoles will do quite well, there, I called it!

 

[rob_simple]

People still seem to be under the illusion that the Wii was a success. In terms of sales, yes, but as far as gaming goes everyone I know stopped playing it after a couple of months and from what I've read on forums (mainly this one) most people now only use it for the VC or to play Gamecube games.

Do we have a price on the WiiU yet, by the way? Because I honestly don't see anyone other than the aforementioned Nintendo fanboys forking out large sums for a controller the main benefits of which are only accessed when playing with other people.

The Wii was new and exciting with a low price tag, which is the only reason it attracted a new customer base; that same customer base will have little to no renewed interest in a similarly shallow gimmick box.

 

[Casual Shinji]

Whether it's going to fail or not is anyone's guess, but Pachter is right about the Wii U being a solution that searches for a problem. It's adding functionality and innovation where none is needed at all, and which will only end up creating a disjointed gaming experience.

 

[medv4380]

The guy has no cred on this issue. He was overly critical of the Wii when it came out so it's no surprise he's critical of the Wii U. Now if he was an analyst who has a track record of getting market predictions correct then what he says would matter. I'd get a better view of what it would do if I asked a 100 people randomly how many units they think the Wii U will sell in its first week.

Well wasn't the Wii's success because of how it caught on with "casual" and non-gamers? The Wii U isn't targeting audience though, it's going for the hardcore, but of course the general hardcore gamers already have PS3s and 360s at this point, so yeah.

And while Pachter's predictions aren't always or even usually correct, at least he's still knowledgeable and experienced enough to make educated forecasts from a financial standpoint.

Hard Core gamers also already have had a PS2, PS, NES, SNES, N64, GC, Genesis, 32x, Saturn, and it didn't stop them from buying the next console. So owning a PS3 or a 360 won't be much of a factor in choosing or not choosing the next console.

The "Hyper" success of the Wii is almost certainly attributed to Casual Gamers. By "Hyper" I mean the 30 to 40 million units that have sold far above the PS3 and 360 market. That still leaves them with nearly 50 to 60 million hard core gamers who bought the system. This assumes that the 22 million who bought the Wii Fit were all "Casual" gamers, and many of you here know that that wasn't the case.

The problem with saying that the success of the Wii was based on Casual gamers is that it is always backed up with anecdotal evidence. Real evidence would be based on age analysis and game sale analysis. You'd ask gamers of all system what they considered themselves to be "casual" or "hard core" and work out the percentages and prove who had more and by how much.

All Michael Pachter did was prove that he isn't an actual analyst. He should have facts and data to back up his claim. Otherwise he's no better then a random person giving you a single guess on what will happen. But that's the "expert analyst" market for you. A bunch of confidence men running around pushing their opinions as facts about the future when they've really done nothing to show why their opinions should have weight.

 

[AzrealMaximillion]

-insert overused counterarguments here-

You keep saying you're "beating" my argument, yet here's the core problem:

The only way to PROVE that you're correct will be if the console doesn't sell. Which can't be proven.

So you're wasting your time trying to "prove" that it will fail when you have no actual way of knowing. Sorry to let you down, but no, I'm not going to bother going through your tired, overused arguments point by point. That got boring around the fifteen time I did it in the past. Not to mention you're being a rude little child, to boot. So, fine. You can have your little "victory" here, since winning the argument was more important than having a civil discussion.

But don't worry, I'll add you to my list of "doubters". And then in a few years, when the console's had time to sell, we'll resume this little discussion. And hey, if you end up being right, you can look forward to my apology a few years from now. Or you can look forward to looking like a complete arse.

Either way, the difference between you and me is that I recognize that this argument isn't ever going to go anywhere. There is no way to "prove" it will/won't sell. You can keep arguing with yourself if it humors you, darling, but I won't. I look forward to your heartfelt apology a few years from now, assuming you aren't banned by then of course.

Sadly, you proved nothing for your argument and decided to back out. You got called out and didn't like it. Sorry you felt that way, I thought that a healthy debate was an opportunity for both sides to learn. Instead I found that you, like a lot of other who talk out of their ass on these forums, decided to do nothing but bring up more sidetracking points to argue (horribly) instead of actually defending your original point. I hope you backing out of the debate makes you happy. Try not to argue with people if you're not going to bother to check your own facts and defend your points intelligently without bowing out. Good day to you.

 

[AzrealMaximillion]

I'll be honest, I did pull the 5 max games out of my ass as an estimate, but for you to combat me with a number that has no link attached to it is hilarious.

You're also forgoing a couple of factors.
1. Your attach rate does not differentiate the difference between core Wii gamers and non core Wii gamers, so by default your attach rate for casual gamers on the Wii is inflated.
2.Most casual gamers do not buy 3rd party games on the Wii, too many of them flopped because of the casual market for anyone to say otherwise. With the Wii's hardware sales even games like Zack and Wiki as well as MadWorld should have sold enough to profit, but they didn't because Nintendo marketed vigorously towards casual gamers. Hell, the PS2's sales numbers make it the KING console of sleeper hits. A lot of sleeper hit games on the PS2 sold enough to garner the Greatest Hits tag just because of how many units the PS2 sold. Case and point, Shadow of the Colossus and God Hand both sold well and in today's gaming market would have no business doing so on the Wii.

Just go to VGChartz.com and look it up, and critizing Nintendo on 3rd party support because "Casual" gamers don't buy 3rd party games is just bull. Nintendo has had more then just "issues" with 3rd parties since the N64. 3rd party titles don't sell on any Nintendo Consoles because they don't work hard to get them First or Exclusive. Your argument against them with 3rd parties isn't a Wii issue but a Nintendo Issue.

"Look it up on VGChartz"...You mean the same VGChartz that regularly has to fix their info because the NPD Group's numbers prove them wrong? Yeah, no thanks. And yes Nintendo has had issues with 3rd party support for a while, difference is this time the Wii was marketed to casuals specifically. The N64 wasn't marketed this way and neither was the Gamecube. And 3rd party publishers did try damn hard to sell their games on the Wii. I remember seeing a large amount of ads on TV, online, and at the movies for MadWorld and House of the Dead Overkill. Both games flopped regardless. Nintendo needs to back off of the casual market targeting because a lot of 3rd party games on the Wii flopped due to it. It's not just a Nintendo problem. This was a Wii marketing issue. At least 3rd part games had a chance at selling on the N64 and Gamecube

 

[Aiddon_v1legacy]

-gets out a bucket of popcorn- It's always fun seeing Escapist idiots twist themselves into pretzels just so they can disguise their bashing of Nintendo as legitimate arguments.

Anyway, it's just Pachter sulking again. He comes off as bitter whenever he mentions Nintendo as they proved that something different in the industry can WORK and even be a runaway success. Also, it's hard to take him seriously when he blatantly insults Nintendo fans by saying they'd buy a cardboard box as long it plays Mario. Real classy Mike.

 

[medv4380]

"Look it up on VGChartz"...You mean the same VGChartz that regularly has to fix their info because the NPD Group's numbers prove them wrong? Yeah, no thanks. And yes Nintendo has had issues with 3rd party support for a while, difference is this time the Wii was marketed to casuals specifically. The N64 wasn't marketed this way and neither was the Gamecube. And 3rd party publishers did try damn hard to sell their games on the Wii. I remember seeing a large amount of ads on TV, online, and at the movies for MadWorld and House of the Dead Overkill. Both games flopped regardless. Nintendo needs to back off of the casual market targeting because a lot of 3rd party games on the Wii flopped due to it. It's not just a Nintendo problem. This was a Wii marketing issue. At least 3rd part games had a chance at selling on the N64 and Gamecube

You'd actually try to use two Sega titles to prove your point? HotD Overkill was a bad game and didn't sell well on the PS3. Try a 3rd party developer like BioWare or Bathesda. Oh wait they don't even try to make games for the Wii, but wait BioWare is at least putting a game on the Wii U. You could have tried using a game like Skylanders but that would have proved you wrong. The vast majority of 3rd party titles on the Wii are not triple A titles. Mostly due to Nintendos choice to not go the HD route until the Wii U, and that they have been a bit abusive to 3rd parties in the past.

 

[Overusedname]

People still seem to be under the illusion that the Wii was a success. In terms of sales, yes, but as far as gaming goes everyone I know stopped playing it after a couple of months and from what I've read on forums (mainly this one) most people now only use it for the VC or to play Gamecube games.

Do we have a price on the WiiU yet, by the way? Because I honestly don't see anyone other than the aforementioned Nintendo fanboys forking out large sums for a controller the main benefits of which are only accessed when playing with other people.

The Wii was new and exciting with a low price tag, which is the only reason it attracted a new customer base; that same customer base will have little to no renewed interest in a similarly shallow gimmick box.

I can completely see where your coming from, and I think a lot of people did just abandon it but...well, I didn't, and I know a few others who didn't. It didn't market it's ultimate successes enough.

Here's my Wii library (off the top of my head, anyway)

Smash bros. Brawl
No More Heroes
No More Heroes 2
Tales of Symphonia 2: Dawn of the New World (I played the whole thing on Co-op)
Metroid Prime 3 Corruption
Zelda: Twilight Princess
Super Mario Galaxy
Super Mario Galaxy 2
Fire Emblem Radiant Dawn
Donkey Kong Country Returns
New Super Mario Bros. Wii
Epic Mickey
Xenoblade
Cave Story

Now, I don't know how many games per console the average person has, but I loved every single one of those games. And that seems like a long list to me. And I missed out on several games I wanted to try for the console just for financial reasons.

I DO agree that the Wii lost in terms of software sales, I'm just saying it didn't deserve to. Maybe Wii U will have better Marketing all around, Cause there were a lot of great, somewhat obscure titles for Wii that got pushed to the wayside.

 

[Strazdas]

A industry analsy that didnt go all crazy when it comes to the dead horse that is nintendo? this is news. seriuosly, when did we see anything good come out of nintendo? 10 years ago? This is going to be like the Vita, but with blind fanbase.

Now, I don't know how many games per console the average person has

according to Raptr: 7 for PC, 18 for PS3 and 50 for Xbox. Now this takes into account people with 0s (dont have the system) so the actual numbers are actually higher. Also the PC numbers are low because obviuosly most PC gamers got steam, and it already provides the services Raptr does so little of them use it.

 

[-|-]

Now, I don't know how many games per console the average person has, but I loved every single one of those games. And that seems like a long list to me. And I missed out on several games I wanted to try for the console just for financial reasons.

I DO agree that the Wii lost in terms of software sales, I'm just saying it didn't deserve to. Maybe Wii U will have better Marketing all around, Cause there were a lot of great, somewhat obscure titles for Wii that got pushed to the wayside.

I'm probably not typical, but I'm the kind of gamer that publishers and developers love. I buy a quite a few games; basically anything that looks half decent in a genre I like; mostly pre-ordered from amazon so I don't have to drive to the shops. Last year was a good year, so I probably bought about 20 or so - I'm not indiscriminate, but I've got a reasonably well paid job so can afford to buy any game I want when it comes out.

I used to mainly prefer Nintendo simply because of the first party games; but by about mid 2008 there just weren't enough of them for me to play; so I got myself a PS3 and on the shelf the wii went. I know this is purely anecdotal, but I've heard similar tales from enough people to believe that this effect is significant in the console market. I can't prove this obviously - but that's why I think Mr Pacther is right in this case.

 

[rob_simple]

People still seem to be under the illusion that the Wii was a success. In terms of sales, yes, but as far as gaming goes everyone I know stopped playing it after a couple of months and from what I've read on forums (mainly this one) most people now only use it for the VC or to play Gamecube games.

Do we have a price on the WiiU yet, by the way? Because I honestly don't see anyone other than the aforementioned Nintendo fanboys forking out large sums for a controller the main benefits of which are only accessed when playing with other people.

The Wii was new and exciting with a low price tag, which is the only reason it attracted a new customer base; that same customer base will have little to no renewed interest in a similarly shallow gimmick box.

I can completely see where your coming from, and I think a lot of people did just abandon it but...well, I didn't, and I know a few others who didn't. It didn't market it's ultimate successes enough.

Here's my Wii library (off the top of my head, anyway)

Smash bros. Brawl
No More Heroes
No More Heroes 2
Tales of Symphonia 2: Dawn of the New World (I played the whole thing on Co-op)
Metroid Prime 3 Corruption
Zelda: Twilight Princess
Super Mario Galaxy
Super Mario Galaxy 2
Fire Emblem Radiant Dawn
Donkey Kong Country Returns
New Super Mario Bros. Wii
Epic Mickey
Xenoblade
Cave Story

Now, I don't know how many games per console the average person has, but I loved every single one of those games. And that seems like a long list to me. And I missed out on several games I wanted to try for the console just for financial reasons.

I DO agree that the Wii lost in terms of software sales, I'm just saying it didn't deserve to. Maybe Wii U will have better Marketing all around, Cause there were a lot of great, somewhat obscure titles for Wii that got pushed to the wayside.

I definitely wouldn't dispute your list, as all the games on it which I've played I have enjoyed, but my enjoyment was marred by the fundamental underlying problem I've always had with the Wii: there wasn't a single game I didn't feel would have been improved (or at least made more enjoyable) by using a normal controller instead of forcing you into the 'will they work or won't they' motion stick waggles.

The Wii did have some unique titles that probably wouldn't have worked as well on other consoles, but the problem I found was that often they didn't even work on the Wii. If I could use Eledees (Elebits in the US, I believe) as an example: I thought it was a very fun and interesting little game but I eventually became frustrated and gave up on it because simple things like turning a door handle or faucet wouldn't work half the time even when I was doing the exact motion the game was telling me to.

I'm sure there are other people who will say they didn't have a problem with the controls but that is exactly why I think motions controls are a dead end for gaming: there is absolutely no way to guarantee users will have the intended experience because there are too many variables to take into account that a regular controller will never throw up and I see no way to ever overcome them.

 

[royohz]

I don't care what anyone thinks. My Wii is making sounds that effectively rip your lower intestines out when it runs discs and its warranty is expired. I'm getting the U.

 

[AzrealMaximillion]

-snip-

Correction: You're being a child and using childish insults instead of having a good, reasonable discussion, so I'm not acknowledging your presence any more. You may as well not exist.

And it's your loss, not mine.

Have a fantastic few years! I suggest you prepare your apology in advance for when I make that thread, because if you do end up being wrong and the Wii U sells well, you're really going to look like an asshat. Whereas I lose absolutely nothing if it doesn't sell well.

I am. When I was younger, Nintendo was by far my favorite. They totally lost me with the Wii. Now I feel like they have a place under my tv again. And I so, SO desperately hope they make a come back with the core audience. They at least will make a come back with me! Hopefully I won't be disappointed.

I have no ill will against Nintendo either way, myself. My first console was an N64 in fact.

I'd like to see them do something spectacular with this console too, really. Anything that can take gaming to a new level of enjoyment has my interest at the very least. I do think the Wii was a decent idea, just poorly implemented.

I guess we'll see! The Wii U has presented some interesting games at least. Remains to be seen if they'll capitalize on the technology they've created with a good roster of games.

PS~ and congrats on a RIDICULOUSLY, UNNECESSARILY LONG post. And you're right.

Yeah, I wasted my time trying to explain reason to someone who is clearly much too biased against Nintendo to invest any time and thought into alternative ideas. I make very long posts trying to explain my point of view, so it drives me crazy when people get all pissy and insult me rather than trying to actually have a civil discussion.

Oh well. I guess he'll just get to be awfully embarrassed if he ends up being wrong, eh?

Thanks for being willing to read my massively long posts anyways!

So you've gone from badly arguing to trolling multiple people. Congratulations, you've just upgraded to just above "gamespot.com" level debating...

 

[AzrealMaximillion]

"Look it up on VGChartz"...You mean the same VGChartz that regularly has to fix their info because the NPD Group's numbers prove them wrong? Yeah, no thanks. And yes Nintendo has had issues with 3rd party support for a while, difference is this time the Wii was marketed to casuals specifically. The N64 wasn't marketed this way and neither was the Gamecube. And 3rd party publishers did try damn hard to sell their games on the Wii. I remember seeing a large amount of ads on TV, online, and at the movies for MadWorld and House of the Dead Overkill. Both games flopped regardless. Nintendo needs to back off of the casual market targeting because a lot of 3rd party games on the Wii flopped due to it. It's not just a Nintendo problem. This was a Wii marketing issue. At least 3rd part games had a chance at selling on the N64 and Gamecube

You'd actually try to use two Sega titles to prove your point?

Umm, yeah Sega actually sells a decent amount of games. I don't know what rock you live under but lately Sega has been making some scratch.

HotD Overkill was a bad game and didn't sell well on the PS3. Try a 3rd party developer like BioWare or Bathesda.

BioWare and Bethesda haven't made Wii games, and I was using an actual pair of examples of Wii games that flopped instead of pulling two big companies out of my ass for a badly made counter argument. And to be honest as good as both of those companies are, Sega puts out one hell of a lot more games than Bioware and Bethesda put together per year.

Oh wait they don't even try to make games for the Wii, but wait BioWare is at least putting a game on the Wii U.

They're porting a game that already sold. No risk there at all.

You could have tried using a game like Skylanders but that would have proved you wrong.

Skylanders is a multiplatform game. Jeez look up the points you bring up because you keep eating your foot. That and Skylanders sold very well as it was the most profitable game at the beginning of this year [http://www.gameinformer.com/b/news/archive/2012/05/09/skylanders-toy-sales-exceed-30-million.aspx].That and Skylanders isn't a core title so one: what argument were you trying to make? Two, Skylanders is again, multiplatform so Activision didn't have to market it specifically for the Wii. Please make a better point.

The vast majority of 3rd party titles on the Wii are not triple A titles. Mostly due to Nintendos choice to not go the HD route until the Wii U, and that they have been a bit abusive to 3rd parties in the past.

The vast majority of 3rd party titles on any console aren't third party... Yet the Wii is a special case because it can't seem to sell the more core 3rd party titles, triple A or not. That and "triple A games" is really a marketing buzzword that has a very broad definition. By all intensive purposes with the major amount of advertisement and hype that MadWorld had, it could have become known as a triple A franchise, but it flopped because it was a Wii exclusive. However, Demon's Souls sold over 1 million purely by word of mount, and can be now classified as part of a triple A franchise thanks to Dark Souls selling very well: http://thesilentchief.com/2012/03/09/demons-souls-dark-souls-sales-top-1-million-worldwide/

Now we both know that of Demon's Souls came out on the Wii as an exclusive that it would have flopped. Now back to MadWorld, Sega is trying the concept again under Anarchy Reigns as a spiritual sequel in the same guise as Demon's Souls to Dark Souls.Anarchy Reigns isn't coming out on the Wii In Japan it has already been released and has already sold many times over than MadWorld, which really helps my point about the Wii's marketing.

You keep saying that Nintendo's history in supporting 3rd party developers in its entirety has always hampered it but Resident Evil 4 when it was Gamecube exclusive sold extremely well before its ports.

 

[paketep]

The guy has no cred on this issue.

The guy has no cred on ANY house.

Frankly, I can't understand why the gaming press publishes every single BS comment he makes, which is all of them.

 

[AzrealMaximillion]

The guy has no cred on this issue.

The guy has no cred on ANY house.

Frankly, I can't understand why the gaming press publishes every single BS comment he makes, which is all of them.

Most likely because he's the only analyst who talks to the gaming media rather than just investors. I don't know why this guy gets so much hate, the analysts who do talk to just investors are probably just as wrong as Michael Pachter is (hell probably even more so), they just don't have their opinions posted in publications. Hell, someone had to have analyzed that the Cold Stone Creamery game for the Wii was a good idea right?

 

[Electrogecko]

A bit redundant no?

Surely hardcore Nintendo fans or Nintendo fanboys would suffice, but hardcore Nintendo fanboys?.....good lord.

 

[AzrealMaximillion]

The Wii U will fail in the sense that people who have never cared about Nintendo won't suddenly start caring about them now. The Wii U will fail in the sense that once again it will be underpowered compared to its competition. The Wii U will fail in the sense that the third-party support will be slightly above 'ass' and the first-party support will just be the same iterative rehashes of Mario and Zelda.

Financially, it will probably be successful, though.

I don't know about financially. It may be successful but not 'early Wii sales' successful. It'll be the most expensive console on the market with nothing to drag anyone's attention to it. Everyone skimps over the fact that there's no price for it yet and the very large possibility that Sony and MS will deliver a price cut to their consoles when the Wii U comes out.

 

[MonkeyPunch]

Well I have said before; and this echo's Pachter somewhat that to me the WiiU just looks like it's trying to do something "different" just for the sake of.
It's not like it found a niche that needed filling or had a great idea.