EA's Skate split the market and left Tony Hawk with the casuals who, as it turns out, aren't dying for a new skateboard game every year. Granted the quality of Tony Hawk has been on the decline for years, but I also think in not trying to compete with Skate and in abandoning the interests of actual skateboarders, who are looking for a simulation, they put the final nail in their coffin. We're seeing the same thing with Shawn White's Color the World With Your Skateboard piece of crap game.
With the Skate series apparently on hiatus for the near future, Tony Hawk had a chance to swoop in and make a play for the simulation fiends they lost at the outset of this console generation. But the reality is that this franchise has been put out to pasture - Tony Hawk doesn't skate anymore, the skateboarding zeitgeist of the late 90's early aughts is over and with it the chances of a skateboarding mega-hit.
Here's hoping EA Blackbox, or whatever the hell the division has been merged into, is working on a legitimate snowboard simulation next.