The Democratic Primary is Upon Us! - Biden is the Presumptive Nominee

Agema

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tstorm823 said:
Shall I go to the second google result [https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/14/politics/kfile-bernie-nationalization/index.html] for "Bernie Sanders nationalize utilities"? Bernie Sanders has supported nationalized industry for decades.
He supported nationalisation decades ago - does he still do now? I wonder, because I've had a look through his policies, and I can't see any significant nationalisation.

Even if he does believe in nationalisation currently, that's not the same thing as intending to do it in a politicaal term.

As it turns out, lowering corporate income tax is not a handout to the rich like Bernie Sanders says, corporate taxes are not a progressive way to fund a government in the first place.
That's not what this research [https://www.nber.org/digest/dec14/w20289.html] suggests. Jut 35% goes to the workers. Landowners and shareholders tend to be the wealthy, and they are the main beneficiaries.

What also needs to be considered is who is getting taxed instead to replace the decreased revenues for a corporation tax cut.

UAE has a weird variable tax rate that they aim the maximum 55% at their discretion. Some pay 55%, some pay 0%. I don't know about Comoros, there are a couple things suggesting to me that their corporate tax is also highly variable, but I'm willing to concede Suriname and Comoros as higher than 35%. I don't think either of those places have enviable economic systems.
Effective tax rate is more interesting, because that's what entities actually pay. In the USA, this was far lower than the nominal, and whilst at the higher end, pretty similar to several other developed countries.

Solidly the highest personal income tax in the world right there. People would hit the current highest marginal rates on the planet at $500,000 of income.
Nope. Seems they only hit the really high stuff ~50% at annual income over $2mill, not $500k.

Also bear in mind that higher rates only kick in for earnings over the threshhold. In a simple 2-tier system at 20% and 40% with the higher value kicking in at $100,000, someone earning $105,000 is effectively taxed at just 21%.

Nor is this necessarily a problem; again, what really matters is total tax burden, not the headline rate of any one individual tax. For instance, your average person earning a million dollars a year subject to income tax is almost certainly pulling in substantial sums from things like capital gains, and/or has the sort of job with creative remuneration schemes that provide untaxed income streams (e.g. shares): the sorts of reason that billionaires pay proportionally less tax than their cleaners and secretaries now.
 

Silvanus

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tstorm823 said:
Shall I go to the second google result [https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/14/politics/kfile-bernie-nationalization/index.html] for "Bernie Sanders nationalize utilities"? Bernie Sanders has supported nationalized industry for decades.
Well, or you could try understanding the difference between a public option existing and having a nationalised utility, instead of just googling shit.

The US corporate income tax used to be comfortably over 40% as well. The trend of lower corporate tax rates is being lead by the most egalitarian countries that everyone loves pointing to, and the places with high corporate income taxes are mostly poorly developed nations. As it turns out, lowering corporate income tax is not a handout to the rich like Bernie Sanders says, corporate taxes are not a progressive way to fund a government in the first place.
Really? I see a pretty big number of tax havens, banana republics and tin-pot dictatorships with 0-10 percent, and Canada & France with relatively high rates.

I mean, without accounting for wealth taxes at all: direct source from Bernie, proposed 52% federal income tax [https://www.sanders.senate.gov/download/options-to-finance-medicare-for-all?inline=file], which on it's own takes 10th highest on the planet, but we have state income tax here as well, so income taxes for the top bracket would be between 52% and 65.3%. Solidly the highest personal income tax in the world right there. People would hit the current highest marginal rates on the planet at $500,000 of income.

We're getting pretty nit-picky here. Hopefully you're at least moved past the point of laughing at the idea of Bernie being left in a global perspective.
I still think its utter nonsense. A huge number of countries have nationalised utilities, regulations & workplace protections that would make any US Democrat blush.

At least you've moved away from the indefensible "97 percent" canard.
 

tstorm823

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Agema said:
He supported nationalisation decades ago - does he still do now? I wonder, because I've had a look through his policies, and I can't see any significant nationalisation.
I'd be happy to see anything from him to suggest that he's changed opinions. But I haven't. And I highly doubt he would be against nationalization in any situation where the people he was talking to supported it.

Even if he does believe in nationalisation currently, that's not the same thing as intending to do it in a political term.
I agree, I don't think Bernie would try to nationalize major industries as president. But the argument is about his personal leftness.

That's not what this research [https://www.nber.org/digest/dec14/w20289.html] suggests. Jut 35% goes to the workers. Landowners and shareholders tend to be the wealthy, and they are the main beneficiaries.
That is absolutely what that says. I do find it weird that they didn't account for any burden carried by customers in the analysis, but 35% of that tax burden carried by workers is huge. This study suggests landowners and shareholders bear 65% of the tax burden of corporate taxes. I know off the top of my head, the top 10% of earners carry 70% of the income tax burden (just one of those fun facts). This suggests to me that it's better for workers to proportionally increase income taxes than it would be to increase corporate taxes. We have a very progressive tax system, 35% burden on workers isn't a low number. And that's without considering the effects on prices for consumers, which is everyone.

What also needs to be considered is who is getting taxed instead to replace the decreased revenues for a corporation tax cut.
Tax capital gains like Sanders wants. Or increase income taxes like Sanders wants. He's got so many taxes he's willing to throw out, some of them are bound to be fine. If we want to tax the rich, tax the rich. Don't throw the tax at corporations, which puts measurable burden on poorer people downstream.

Seriously, the suggestion of heafty corporate tax sets me off a little too much. But compared to any other method of taxing the rich, corporate taxes a) burden the poor too, b) are easier to write off, c) are possible to avoid altogether through tax havens. Why do people like them so much, I don't understand.

Effective tax rate is more interesting, because that's what entities actually pay. In the USA, this was far lower than the nominal, and whilst at the higher end, pretty similar to several other developed countries.
And if you're comparable to other countries, and someone wants to raise the taxes, that person is skewed from the perspective of those countries too. That's all I'm saying.

Nope. Seems they only hit the really high stuff ~50% at annual income over $2mill, not $500k.
Again, add in an up to 13% or so state tax to his numbers to get the total income tax rate. Here's a calculator for California [https://smartasset.com/taxes/california-tax-calculator#xBDrJGZ2jj]. Currently, if you make $500k there, your marginal state tax rate is 11.3%. At $500k in Bernie-land, you hit 45%. That's a combined 56.3% income tax, which I suppose would be only 3rd highest marginal rate on the planet.

the sorts of reason that billionaires pay proportionally less tax than their cleaners and secretaries now.
The reason billionaires pay "proportionally less" is because the people running the numbers are cooking them. It's the same people who want you to think Jeff Bezos has $150 billion dollars when that's almost entirely a calculation from the value of stock holdings he's legally barred from liquidating.

As hinted above, I'd be perfectly happy if we would minimize corporate taxes and treat capital gains more like we do other income, and people rich off of stocks are benefiting from low capital gains, but they're also paying almost all the taxes as it turns out, and certain parties have a vested interest in rhetorically minimizing the rich's contributions while inflating their perceived wealth.

Silvanus said:
I still think its utter nonsense. A huge number of countries have nationalised utilities, regulations & workplace protections that would make any US Democrat blush.
I genuinely don't think you could name many that would make even some Democrats blush, more or less any Democrat. I think "the US is so far right of everyone else" is one of those "truthiness" claims.
 

Tireseas_v1legacy

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Virginia and Vermont polls have just closed.

MSNBC is calling Virginia for Biden and Vermont for Sanders.

Next polls close at 7:30p EST
 

Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)

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Tireseas said:
Virginia and Vermont polls have just closed.

MSNBC is calling Virginia for Biden and Vermont for Sanders.

Next polls close at 7:30p EST
Okay it looks like people not voting for Bloomberg, if he loses all the states on super Tuesday I will laugh
 

Tireseas_v1legacy

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tf2godz said:
Tireseas said:
Virginia and Vermont polls have just closed.

MSNBC is calling Virginia for Biden and Vermont for Sanders.

Next polls close at 7:30p EST
Okay it looks like people not voting for Bloomberg, if he loses all the states on super Tuesday I will laugh
Be prepared to laugh.

I don't think the question is whether Bloomberg will win any of the states (I remain skeptical of the "skip the early states" strategy as I mentioned earlier), but whether he walks away with delegates. Biden technically trails Sanders going into today (the Vermont and Virginia results likely changed this, but I'm waiting on full precinct reports before posting to the OP). But only technically. Counting his endorsements of Buttigieg and Klobuchar, while not useful for first round voting but could be for second-round voting in a brokered convention, already push him into the lead. If Bloomberg walks though the next month and collects potentially up to a hundred delegates, then he'll almost certainly have a seat at the table and would likely back Biden if there's no moderate consensus around another candidate at the convention.

Which also presumes a brokered convention with no clear plurality or de facto tie going in.

EDIT: I'm going to make the mistake of going a step further and say that if Sander's walks in with a small plurality (<35%) or a tie, the results from the Florida primary will mirror who get's selected for the nominee.
 

Tireseas_v1legacy

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Alabama, Massachusetts, Maine, Oklahoma, and Tennessee polls have closed.

MSNBC is calling Alabama for Biden.

America Samoa has been called for Bloomberg.
 

Asita

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tf2godz said:
American Samoa voted for Bloomberg, I didn't even know they voted?
They do and they don't. As a US territory they don't get congressional representation, nor do they get to vote in the presidential election, but they do get to vote in the caucuses and primaries. It's one of the oddities of the system that they should probably give another long hard look at. Territory or no, its inhabitants are still US Citizens, and have been since 1900.
 

Tireseas_v1legacy

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MSNBC is calling Tennessee for Biden with a little more than 30% of the vote and Sanders at 24%, with Bloomberg at 20%.
 

Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)

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Marik2 said:
Just voted for Bernie. Lets see who gets Texas.
Texas seems like the state Sanders needs to win to stay in the race, if he doesn't he will lose so much momentum. I hope texas will help the left just this once
 

crimson5pheonix

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Biden has a fair amount of momentum. I guess at this point all I can hope for is a contested convention and for someone to realize Biden has a coinflip's chance against Trump.

Or in other words, FOUR MORE YEARS, FOUR MORE YEARS!
 

Tireseas_v1legacy

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tf2godz said:
Marik2 said:
Just voted for Bernie. Lets see who gets Texas.
Texas seems like the state Sanders needs to win to stay in the race, if he doesn't he will lose so much momentum. I hope texas will help the left just this once
He doesn't need it, especially if he pulls a decent lead in California and maintains a few point gap between him and Biden in Texas, but he really needs more wins with larger margins or he's going to end up repeating 2016 where his win margins aren't big enough to counter his lose margins. He benefited heavily from a divided field of "moderates" (in quotes because, with the exception of Gabbard, almost all of them would support whatever Democratic priorities came out of the congress and would be generally left-of-cenet), but now that the moderate lane is coalescing around Biden, so his big leads are now shrinking.

Still, Sanders is almost certainly in until at least the end of April at which point it will hopefully be clear who is the likely nominee, even if it goes to a brokered convention.