Ukraine

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Agema

Overhead a rainbow appears... in black and white
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It’s a lot of dosh, I get that. It’s not boots, though.
Honestly, I think if Russia is to be stopped, boots are needed. It surely is clear that Putin is going to drag this out until someone runs out of human beings to fight heedless to the cost to his own nation, and unfortunately, Russia isn't losing men fast enough that it's going to run out first.

Not only that, but Russia clearly isn't shy about deploying troops from other nations, even if those nations are the world's most despised pariahs.
 
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Silvanus

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Except that they negotiated a non-aggression pact that specifically disallowed Germany from taking certain regions.
Regions which it took itself. In exchange for other regions which it permitted and assisted Nazi seizure of.

The Soviet Union didn't agree to join the Axis but they did offer a million Soviet troops to take on Germany alongside the UK and France. That offer was on the table and the UK and France did not respond to it.
Ah, so the Soviets presented that plan to... some diplomats that weren't empowered to decide geopolitical strategy. Then 1 week later they signed the treaty with the Nazis and went hard in that direction instead.

"Together with the Germans we would have been unstoppable".
 

Agema

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Regions which it took itself.
We might also note that many regions the USSR took over it promptly deported or murdered a substantial number of people. For instance, over a hundred thousand were deported from the Baltic States in 1940, many of whom were never heard of again. (Even more after the USSR reasserted control 1944-1945). It's assumed they were shipped to gulags and died there, largely unrecorded. Although maybe plenty were just slaughtered and buried, because the USSR also did that sort of thing. In terms of Ukraine, of course, it also famously managed to starve millions to death. Doesn't make the regime popular.

It is thus perhaps no surprise that many areas dominated by the USSR viewed the Nazis as potential liberators. As abhorrent as the Nazis were, for some nations they appeared the lesser evil and only realistic route out from Soviet oppression.

Russia ruthlessly manipulates this in the modern day to assert its moral and territorial ambitions by linking resistance to Russia as Naziism. We can and should see through by recognising just how appalling the Soviets could be. We don't need to condone Naziism to understand why opponents to Soviet rule would ally with them to escape the Soviets.
 

Hades

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Seems Russia has now all but admitted the war really is just about wanting to conquer eastern Europe again. Just like during the first days of the invasion they say there won't be peace unless NATO withdraws their forces from the Baltic. Now why would Russia want the baltic countries to be left completely defenseless....

 

Chimpzy

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If the police are never going to turn up, why should the bank robbers stop?
Oh, but the thing is, they're also the police. It's the reason they're robbing the bank to begin with. Gotta stop the mob.
 

Agema

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Oh, but the thing is, they're also the police. It's the reason they're robbing the bank to begin with. Gotta stop the mob.
I think in my mind, the police force in this analogy are sitting at base with a massive, tooled up armed response team, sending texts to the bank robbers saying "Stop robbing the bank or we're going to cut off your unemployment benefits for a few years".
 

Agema

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Watch this end with Trump giving back Alaska and calling it a win.
Trump tends to spout whatever the last person who spoke to him said. So stick him in a room with Putin, he'll be parrotting Russian propaganda until he eventually gets stuck in a room with someone who counteracts it.

Look, I really want a positive outcome for Ukraine, and if Trump gets one, that would be ace. But Trump's dealmaking seems to be about self-publicity and self-mythologising. None of his deals mean anything. We get all this grandstanding, all these assurances of great results going in and claims of victory coming out, except it turns out nothing concrete is ever agreed. They fall through or turn out very different weeks/month/years down the line, but this is lost in the fanfare of all Trump's other headline "deals".

This will likely be no different. Putin will agree to do stuff that requires no serious commitments, or that will depend on Ukraine doing things he knows Ukraine won't. After some weeks-months of blabbering and gestures, nothing meaningful will have happened. Blame and harsh words may be said. Then we can start the haul to the next Trump-Putin "deal" (I estimate 6-12 months), outcome just the same as all the previous.
 

Satinavian

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This will likely be no different. Putin will agree to do stuff that requires no serious commitments, or that will depend on Ukraine doing things he knows Ukraine won't. After some weeks-months of blabbering and gestures, nothing meaningful will have happened. Blame and harsh words may be said. Then we can start the haul to the next Trump-Putin "deal" (I estimate 6-12 months), outcome just the same as all the previous.
We all know Trump won't manage to make peace.

But the question is whether Putin can persuade Trump again to stop intelligence sharing and supply of weapons (including weapons other people pay for) or not.
 

Seanchaidh

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We all know Trump won't manage to make peace.
Of course he won't. He doesn't have the inclination (or the leverage, though that seems a closer question) to force the Ukrainian government to make peace on Russia's terms and Russia has, in its view, every reason to insist on its terms and no reason not to. Sanctions aren't living up to the fantastical expectations placed on them (apparently Russia is big and has lots of natural resources as well as plentiful foreign trade outside of the US sphere of influence) and US and European weapons have not yet and will not relieve the overwhelming stress on Ukraine's manpower (Ukraine is not actually fighting mindless orcs, contra the propaganda). Making peace requires agreement between the two principal participants; Zelensky now has additional incentive to continue the war, paralleled somewhat by Netanyahu in israel, in the fact that he won't have to face an election while the war continues. Russia has its war goals, which its political leadership and many of its people believe are required to secure the continued existence of Russia, European elites want NATO to remain relevant for some awful reason, and the political leadership of the United States doesn't want another Afghanistan pullout to be attributed to them. Ukraine still has blood to shed, and everyone whose opinion has any effect agrees that it will be shed.
 

Hades

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Russia has its war goals, which its political leadership and many of its people believe are required to secure the continued existence of Russia,
No they don't. The Russian elite pursue this war for the glory of empire and not for the survival of the state. An independent Ukraine doesn't threaten Russia in any way. Not even a NATO aligned Ukraine would threaten Russia. The only thing a functioning and independent Ukraine might threaten is the barbaric system of robber barons looting the Russian state and public, but that's a problem the Kremlin can fix whenever it wants to by just being a real government instead of a gaggle of bandits.

As for the video. I don't think we should put much stock in the opinion of a clown who has it as his starting assumption that Ukraine should be sacrificed to appease ''great power'' Russia, and that their own wishes, future prospects and safety should all get ignored. Fuck him and his insistence Europeans are just poker chips for Russia and the US rather than independent nations.

Its also funny you seem to object to the ''orc'' description despite the barbarity of the Russian army, and the barbarism the Russian state has always engaged in.
European elites want NATO to remain relevant for some awful reason
Said reason being Russia's continued desire to do extreme harm to Europe in general, and many of their non NATO aligned neighbors in particular. I hope you'll excuse Poland and the Baltics for not wanting to be conquered, enslaved and slaughtered by Russia for a third time in recent history.

Europe wasn't relevant for decades until Putin forced it to become relevant. For years Europeans went above and beyond to forge ties with Russia which they were extremely unwilling to fully break after Russia betrayed us.
 
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Silvanus

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Russia has its war goals, which its political leadership and many of its people believe are required to secure the continued existence of Russia
Its political leadership is not so monumentally idiotic as to believe this; Russia has never been attacked by NATO, and its existence has never once been seriously threatened from outside.

However a subsection of its people, being unable to access any independent media whatsoever, and presented only with the genocidal Russian state media apparatus, may have been convinced of it.

European elites want NATO to remain relevant for some awful rreasn
And Russia chose to reinforce its relevance. European countries outside of NATO have been repeatedly invaded, bombed, and threatened with destruction. A mutual defence pact appears to be the only thing that can dissuade imperial annexation.

and the political leadership of the United States doesn't want another Afghanistan pullout to be attributed to them. Ukraine still has blood to shed, and everyone whose opinion has any effect agrees that it will be shed.
Indistinguishable from the horseshit Netanyahu and Likud come out with to demonise resistance against an invader and occupying military power. Invade and occupy someone else's territory, and you cannot blame them for resisting the forces you've deployed to do so.
 
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Seanchaidh

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The response to Russian territorial claims in Ukraine by the West should be a demand for more credible referenda.

Its political leadership is not so monumentally idiotic as to believe this; Russia has never been attacked by NATO, and its existence has never once been seriously threatened from outside.
Russia would be monumentally idiotic to think as you do about this question.

And Russia chose to reinforce its relevance. European countries outside of NATO have been repeatedly invaded, bombed, and threatened with destruction. A mutual defence pact appears to be the only thing that can dissuade imperial annexation.
NATO thus did very well to provoke those conflicts. Masterful manipulation of the circumstances. But for some reason you don't seem to have a problem with that part. "Russia is going to invade!" OK, will you engage them diplomatically since they've reached out about their security concerns regarding your actions? "Of course not! They must go kick rocks!" NATO wanting to be relevant is perfectly explanatory of NATO's behavior; a sincere desire to avoid war, on the other hand, doesn't explain NATO's actions at all; viewed through that lens, NATO actions are baffling.

Indistinguishable from the horseshit Netanyahu and Likud come out with to demonise resistance against an invader and occupying military power. Invade and occupy someone else's territory, and you cannot blame them for resisting the forces you've deployed to do so.
Ukraine is well within its rights to defend itself (though that can come into tension with the self-determination of those within its claimed territories for some varieties of "defense"), even though the Zelensky government is not subject to any democratic check at this point. It is, however, silly to compare the situation of Ukraine to those resisting a European settler colonial state representing the interests of the West in Palestine. 'Israel' has no legitimacy to exist at all, to say nothing of imposing itself on the West Bank and Gaza. If something threatens its existence, good, it should go away; there should be no place for that racist endeavor. Comparing the situation of Ukraine to a deliberate ethnic cleansing that has been understood and planned for over a century (and which outpaced the civilian death toll in Ukraine within a few months after Operation Al-Aqsa Flood in a far smaller area with much smaller populations involved) is certainly a choice.
 
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Silvanus

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Russia would be monumentally idiotic to think as you do about this question.
Nice one. You (and the Russian gov you uncritically parrot) still have yet to present a credible way in which Ukraine having independence threatens the very existence of Russia, without ever having attacked or even threatened it.

Or, for that matter, why its ok for the territorial integrity of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and others to be unilaterally broken by Russia. If you believe a threat to a state's territory justifies that state in invading and occupying others, why afford this consideration solely to Russia, and not to those in its crosshairs.
 
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Seanchaidh

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way in which Ukraine having independence
That is not what provoked the conflict.

Membership in NATO is not 'independence', becoming a military staging ground for the United States is not 'independence', attempting to steal the port at Sevastopol by overthrowing the government is not 'independence'.

Or, for that matter, why its ok for the territorial integrity of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and others to be unilaterally broken by Russia. If you believe a threat to a state's territory justifies that state in invading and occupying others, why afford this consideration solely to Russia, and not to those in its crosshairs.
It has never been "OK", but they are responding to US provocations and have not been given an alternative that makes sense other than sacrificing their own security for the sake of morality-- something that no reasonable state does by choice in the current international order, an international order which has been to a large extent determined by the United States. The fact that the United States imposed that dilemma on them without any justification is the root of the problem. It would be one thing if NATO were a good faith effort to prevent war, but it manifestly is not. It is beyond apparent that NATO did precisely what it would do if it wanted a war between Russia and Ukraine and it is dominated by hands down the most belligerent nation of the last 70 years.

and the Russian gov you uncritically parrot
My thoughts on this matter tend to echo the views of a wide variety of Western intellectuals who know a lot better about what they are talking about than you, from Noam Chomsky to George Kennan; people whose values and life experiences are all over the place (including direct participation from the US side of official US/Ukraine or US/Russian relations in some cases) but whose grasp of the facts are all fairly similar.
 
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Hades

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NATO thus did very well to provoke those conflicts. Masterful manipulation of the circumstances. But for some reason you don't seem to have a problem with that part. "Russia is going to invade!" OK, will you engage them diplomatically since they've reached out about their security concerns regarding your actions? "Of course not! They must go kick rocks!" NATO wanting to be relevant is perfectly explanatory of NATO's behavior; a sincere desire to avoid war, on the other hand, doesn't explain NATO's actions at all; viewed through that lens, NATO actions are baffling.
But those ''security concerns'' were illegitimate to begin with. They hinge under the deluded premise that Russia is a special little flower that deserves imperial recognition, and that the sovereignty of Ukraine and the wider European order should be outsourced to the Kremlin. Russia does not have the inherent right to decide Ukraine's future, its allies and its economy for them.

The wider world is in it full right not to humor Russia's absurd pretensions of ownership over eastern Europe.

That is not what provoked the conflict.

Membership in NATO is not 'independence', becoming a military staging ground for the United States is not 'independence', attempting to steal the port at Sevastopol by overthrowing the government is not 'independence'.
What provoked the conflict was Ukraine wanting to trade with Europe, and Russia forbidding it and forcing their puppet leader in Ukraine to self destruct. Every aspect of this conflict can be traced to an escalation by Russia.

NATO in itself is not independence per se, but Russia has made it fully clear they will never accept Ukrainian independence without it. Because when Ukraine decides for itself without having NATO protection Russia poisons their presidents, they steal their land and they start a genocidal war.

It has never been "OK", but they are responding to US provocations and have not been given an alternative that makes sense other than sacrificing their own security for the sake of morality-- something that no reasonable state does by choice in the current international order, an international order which has been to a large extent determined by the United States. The fact that the United States imposed that dilemma on them without any justification is the root of the problem. It would be one thing if NATO were a good faith effort to prevent war, but it manifestly is not. It is beyond apparent that NATO did precisely what it would do if it wanted a war between Russia and Ukraine and it is dominated by hands down the most belligerent nation of the last 70 years.
But they simply aren't. Accepting that Russia's former nations are independent nations is not a provocation. Its Russia's insistent they still own our ought to own those country that is the provocation, and its exactly that behavior that forces those country to seek NATO protection.

And what do you mean ''without justification''? Throughout history Russia has repeatedly destroyed, conquered and tortured their neighbors. And Russia is PROUD of this. They are open about how they hate losing their tyrannical empire.Russia’s victims have every justification in the world to join NATO