Ukraine

[dreng3]

Russia and the US are reportedly considering an ongoing occupation of Eastern Ukraine modelled on the Israeli occupation of the West Bank after 1967.

US and Russia suggest ‘West Bank-style occupation of Ukraine’

Russia would have both economic and military control of the occupied parts of Ukraine under the proposal

www.independent.co.uk

Under the West Bank model, Russia would not officially add Eastern Ukraine to its territory, but would continue its military occupation indefinitely and have economic control of the region. Ukrainians living there would have no ability to participate in either Russian or Ukrainian elections.

Given what we're seeing from The West Bank and Israel that doesn't seem particularly appealing.

Though it will be fun to see our resident Israel-hater and Russia-apologist square the circle on this one.

 

[Agema]

Russia and the US are reportedly considering an ongoing occupation of Eastern Ukraine modelled on the Israeli occupation of the West Bank after 1967.

US and Russia suggest ‘West Bank-style occupation of Ukraine’

Russia would have both economic and military control of the occupied parts of Ukraine under the proposal

www.independent.co.uk

Under the West Bank model, Russia would not officially add Eastern Ukraine to its territory, but would continue its military occupation indefinitely and have economic control of the region. Ukrainians living there would have no ability to participate in either Russian or Ukrainian elections.

Well, you know, that's not the worst outcome at this juncture.

Ukraine has not formally ceded the provinces so there lies the theoretical right to reclaim them. Assuming Ukraine is granted broad freedom in foreign policy it could then be substantially secured by Europe to prevent further Russian predation, and perhaps in the long term have options.

However, I suspect this meeting is junk. It's just a pointless bit of grandstanding and theatre which will agree nothing substantial at all. It'll be a promptfor negotiations which end up going nowhere, whilst Putin grinds out another few dozen square kilometres of Ukrainian territory.

 

[Thaluikhain]

However, I suspect this meeting is junk. It's just a pointless bit of grandstanding and theatre which will agree nothing substantial at all. It'll be a promptfor negotiations which end up going nowhere, whilst Putin grinds out another few dozen square kilometres of Ukrainian territory.

Almost certainly, yes.

 

[Hades]

So when will we get to see the footage of that piece of filth Vance ambushing Putin, slandering him and demanding he say thank you? Because it be really weird if he did that to Zelensky but not Putin who actually deserves the bad attitude of Vance.

 

[Silvanus]

Well, you know, that's not the worst outcome at this juncture.

Ukraine has not formally ceded the provinces so there lies the theoretical right to reclaim them. Assuming Ukraine is granted broad freedom in foreign policy it could then be substantially secured by Europe to prevent further Russian predation, and perhaps in the long term have options.

I can see that from a broad foreign policy perspective, for the governments involved. Much less ideal for the people living there, subject to a two-tier legal system, political exclusion, and extrajudicial brutality.

 

[Gergar12]

For all the show about the F-22s, B-2s, and Apache Longbow Helicopters on TikTok, it was all a show. It would have been better not to hold it, save the money, and send a few AMRAAMS to Ukraine so that they could shoot another Su-30.

 

[bluegate]

Well, you know, that's not the worst outcome at this juncture.

Ukraine has not formally ceded the provinces so there lies the theoretical right to reclaim them. Assuming Ukraine is granted broad freedom in foreign policy it could then be substantially secured by Europe to prevent further Russian predation, and perhaps in the long term have options.

Europe in the very near future: "The war's over, right? Russia is all cool again, no need to help Ukraine secure themselves, Russia won't attack again again."

 

[Thaluikhain]

Europe in the very near future: "The war's over, right? Russia is all cool again, no need to help Ukraine secure themselves, Russia won't attack again again."

Cynically, perhaps leaders in Europe might look at how much territory Russia has gained, how long it took Russia to do so, how far Russia is from their own borders, and how long they expect to remain in power/expected lifespan.

 

[Satinavian]

Cynically, perhaps leaders in Europe might look at how much territory Russia has gained, how long it took Russia to do so, how far Russia is from their own borders, and how long they expect to remain in power/expected lifespan.

Well, we are seeing it with Spain already.
However Russia is too close to too much of Europe to feel all that safe.

 

[Agema]

Europe in the very near future: "The war's over, right? Russia is all cool again, no need to help Ukraine secure themselves, Russia won't attack again again."

I moderately despair at Europe, but in my dreams there would be some sort of commitment to support for Ukraine in case future conflict that goes well beyond well-wishing and money.

 

[Silvanus]

So, about 2 days ago, Steve Witkoff stated that Russia had agreed Ukraine could receive security guarantees from the US and Europe, similar in function to NATO's Article 5.

Russia has comprehensively rejected this. Lavrov has said that any US or European presence in Ukraine would be unacceptable to them, and that the only security guarantees for Ukraine they will accept will be from Russia itself and China.

So, did Witkoff just fail to understand what had been discussed? He doesn't speak Russian, and has turned up to past talks without his own interpreter. He has also misinterpreted Russian statements in the past, prompting correction from diplomats. Is this just amateur hour as we've come to expect of the Trump admin? Or did Russia backtrack? Also wouldn't be the first time. In this case I'm inclined to believe the former, though.

((On a side note, what a moronic non-starter the Russian position is. Ukraine may only receive security guarantees from its own invader, and if it gets them from anyone else it will continue to be invaded? So... a protection racket, then?))

 

[The Rogue Wolf]

So, did Witkoff just fail to understand what had been discussed? He doesn't speak Russian, and has turned up to past talks without his own interpreter. He has also misinterpreted Russian statements in the past, prompting correction from diplomats. Is this just amateur hour as we've come to expect of the Trump admin?

I'd bet money on it being "I don't need to understand Russian; I speak freedom".

 

[Silvanus]

3 days ago saw the largest air attack of the war so far, with Russia launching 805 drones, 8 cruise missiles and 4 ballistic missiles at Ukraine. Targets were again overwhelmingly residential areas and civilian/ energy infrastructure. ~740 of the drones and 4 missiles were intercepted.

And today, 8 of Russia's drones violated Polish airspace. There have been a few individual airspace crossings already, but this is by far the largest. One residential building in Poland was hit, but its not clear what from-- could be falling debris from a destroyed drone.

 

[Hades]

So the barbarians attacked Poland this time. Europe should show strength and slam some extra sanctions on them. Or give more cash to Ukraine so Russia's orcs can have a bad time.

 

[bluegate]

So the barbarians attacked Poland this time. Europe should show strength and slam some extra sanctions on them. Or give more cash to Ukraine so Russia's orcs can have a bad time.

They should show some balls and just shoot everything down as it leaves Russia's airspace.

"Whoops, make sure to keep your toys within your own borders there, Russia".

 

[Satinavian]

They should show some balls and just shoot everything down as it leaves Russia's airspace.

"Whoops, make sure to keep your toys within your own borders there, Russia".

In case of cheap drones that costs us more than Russia. Which might be the whole point of the attack.

 

[bluegate]

In case of cheap drones that costs us more than Russia. Which might be the whole point of the attack.

We'd just be lightening the load on Ukraine's shoulders by taking on some more load ourselves.

 

[Agema]

And today, 8 of Russia's drones violated Polish airspace. There have been a few individual airspace crossings already, but this is by far the largest. One residential building in Poland was hit, but its not clear what from-- could be falling debris from a destroyed drone.

Don't worry, Trump has dismissed it as just an accident. Surely his best buddy Putin wouldn't do that.

Those super-tough sanctions on Russia for being intransigent are coming. Anytime now. In a minute. A few more days. Ready to go, just need to hit the button. No, really, everyone prepare themselves. They're imminent...

 

[The Rogue Wolf]

Those super-tough sanctions on Russia for being intransigent are coming. Anytime now. In a minute. A few more days. Ready to go, just need to hit the button. No, really, everyone prepare themselves. They're imminent...

In two weeks, just like that "big, beautiful healthcare bill".

 

[Agema]

In two weeks, just like that "big, beautiful healthcare bill".

I'm just wondering whether the massive Russia sanctions are going to be freezing the assets of, and issuing an international arrest warrant for, Navalny's widow.

That'll show 'em who's boss.