Ukraine

[Absent]

Aaanyway.

Russia investigates Wagner chief for ‘armed mutiny’ after call for attack on military

FSB opens criminal case after Yevgeny Prigozhin accuses Russia’s military of rocket attack and says ‘evil’ leadership must be stopped

www.theguardian.com

Russia bombs Wagner.

Wagner vows revenge.

Russia investigates Wagner for mutiny.

Wagner, claiming they'll go punish all the responsibles before returning to the frontlines, asks russians to stay in house (but also to go out and join them), and assures them that it is not a military coup at all.

So. What.

Civil war ? For realsies ?

 

[Silvanus]

Aaanyway.

Russia investigates Wagner chief for ‘armed mutiny’ after call for attack on military

FSB opens criminal case after Yevgeny Prigozhin accuses Russia’s military of rocket attack and says ‘evil’ leadership must be stopped

www.theguardian.com

Russia bombs Wagner.

Wagner vows revenge.

Russia investigates Wagner for mutiny.

Wagner, claiming they'll go punish all the responsibles before returning to the frontlines, asks russians to stay in house (but also to go out and join them), and assures them that it is not a military coup at all.

So. What.

Civil war ? For realsies ?

The Russian military has already fired on Wagner, and Wagner have already captured and interrogated a senior officer from the Russian military.

This won't change anything. Wagner has no meaningful standing in the internal Moscow power struggle. It will only serve to degenerate coordination between the Russian military and Wagner, not to forment change.

 

[CM156]

Aaanyway.

Russia investigates Wagner chief for ‘armed mutiny’ after call for attack on military

FSB opens criminal case after Yevgeny Prigozhin accuses Russia’s military of rocket attack and says ‘evil’ leadership must be stopped

www.theguardian.com

Russia bombs Wagner.

Wagner vows revenge.

Russia investigates Wagner for mutiny.

Wagner, claiming they'll go punish all the responsibles before returning to the frontlines, asks russians to stay in house (but also to go out and join them), and assures them that it is not a military coup at all.

So. What.

Civil war ? For realsies ?

My money says psyop.
But that's because of my instinctive distrust of these people.

 

[Kwak]

My money says psyop.
But that's because of my instinctive distrust of these people.

To what end? What's the 'psy' here?

 

[Avnger]

To what end? What's the 'psy' here?

The Russian (and previously USSR) government has long operated on the propaganda equivalent of "throw everything at the wall including poor old babushka and see what sticks." The more noise and confusion generated by conflicting messages, the better. Rather than hide the truth in private, shotgun it into public with 99 other possible scenarios of varying plausibility.

 

[Absent]

I'm not sure this noise and confusion benefits Russia a lot. Putin would probably not sacrifice the internal perception of the situation in order to muddle its perception abroad. And these conflicting narratives really aren't good for the russian citizens' image of that "special operation" and their leader's reliability.

 

[Absent]

The article keeps being updated.

Amid rumours that columns of Wagner fighters were already on the move, General Sergei Surovikin, the deputy commander of Russia’s Ukraine campaign, released a video address ordering the mercenaries to remain loyal to Putin.

“I urge you to stop,” said Surovikin, who was previously understood to be close to Prigozhin. “The enemy is just waiting for the internal political situation to worsen in our country.”

Yup.

The FSB urged Wagner fighters “not to make irreparable mistakes, to stop any forceful actions against the Russian people, not to carry out the criminal and treacherous orders of Prigozhin, and to take measures to detain him”.

One hell of a psy-op.

 

[Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)]

Well this is nightmaresh. I understand Russia has been acting like a bit of jerks for the past year, or two, but I hope that this doesn't end up with a lot of dead innocent people.

 

[Absent]

It's a bit detailed here :

Wagner Boss Declares War On Russian Defense Ministry (Updated)

After claiming his forces were attacked by Russia, Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin said he would march on Moscow.

www.thedrive.com

But at this point, we should maybe move to wtf thread.

 

[Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)]

It's a bit detailed here :

Wagner Boss Declares War On Russian Defense Ministry (Updated)

After claiming his forces were attacked by Russia, Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin said he would march on Moscow.

www.thedrive.com

But at this point, we should maybe move to wtf thread.

We are 234 pages late for that.

 

[CM156]

Spoiler

I seriously have no idea what's going on. I'm watching this situation unfold with confusion and disbelief.
There's gotta be some angle to this, right? They're not this stupid, right?

 

[Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)]

Spoiler

I seriously have no idea what's going on. I'm watching this situation unfold with confusion and disbelief.
There's gotta be some angle to this, right? They're not this stupid, right?

When you have nothing to lose go all in.

 

[meiam]

I'm guessing wagner was about to become the scapegoat and so he didn't much of a choice and had to either run or fight. He can't seriously put up a fight against the army, but he might be able to carve himself a territory and the army will be too busy with Ukraine to attack him and take it back.

 

[Trunkage]

Spoiler

I seriously have no idea what's going on. I'm watching this situation unfold with confusion and disbelief.
There's gotta be some angle to this, right? They're not this stupid, right?

Yeah, this is like seeing the Berlin Wall fall, planes hit the twin towers, Lebanon explode or Tsunamis hit Fukushima or Aceh.

What a time to be alive

 

[Zetatrain]

I'm guessing wagner was about to become the scapegoat and so he didn't much of a choice and had to either run or fight. He can't seriously put up a fight against the army, but he might be able to carve himself a territory and the army will be too busy with Ukraine to attack him and take it back.

Here is what i believe is most likely happening

After Wagner took Bakmut, the Russian Minister of Defense, Shoigu, ordered all PMCs to be integrated into the Russian military by July 1st. And before all...THIS happened, Wagner's leader, Prigozhin, stated that he would not comply.

As you all know, Russia's war in Ukraine has been a shit show and Russia's military leaders, including Shoigu, are very unpopular among the Russian troops and civilian population, especially the Ultra-nationalists. Prigozhin is one of the few people who openly criticize the military's leadership (not Putin) and face no consequences (up until now); this is probably because Wagner is one of the few competent organizations in the Russian military. He was very critical of Shoigu and the military leadership over the last few months and the integration of Wagner into the Russian military may be a way for the Russian MoD to "remove" him.

July 1st is less than a week away, and Prigozhin is launching this coup because his back is up against the wall. I don't think the Russian MoD is trying to find a scapegoat and is just simply trying to remove someone they fear is gaining too much popular support, though to be fair scapegoating could be part of it. The average Wagner mercenary is mostly likely supporting Prigozhin because he signs their paychecks and the Russian government has not been on time with paying some of their troops. There is also the possibility that the average Wagner mercenary does not want to serve under the Russian military leadership given how bad their handling of the war has been.

EDIT:

Well, Putin just sided with the MoD and called Wagner's actions treason; though its seems he didn't mention Prigozhin by name.

 

[Satinavian]

There are reports, Wagner is already in Voronesh, which is basically half the distance from Rostov to Moskow. It's the classicla march to the capital. And it is fast. They probably hope to get there before the MoD can mount any proper reaction.

 

[Zetatrain]

There are reports, Wagner is already in Voronesh, which is basically half the distance from Rostov to Moskow. It's the classicla march to the capital. And it is fast. They probably hope to get there before the MoD can mount any proper reaction.

I think the issue for the MoD is that most of the security forces sent to stop Wagner have just parted like the Red Sea. Things might change now that Putin has condemned Wagner's actions, but I would not be surprised if this comes down to FSB vs Wagner.

 

[Kwak]

Does he win and become the king of russia if he gets there?

 

[Ag3ma]

Gosh. This is interesting.

I'm guessing wagner was about to become the scapegoat and so he didn't much of a choice and had to either run or fight. He can't seriously put up a fight against the army, but he might be able to carve himself a territory and the army will be too busy with Ukraine to attack him and take it back.

Oh, I don't think he'll carve out a territory, he'll march on Moscow and launch, I guess, a kind of coup. What sort of coup? Remove Putin? Just clear out the elites he doesn't like and leave Putin in charge, nominally or effectively?

A lot of the Russian troops that could stop him are deployed in Ukraine. And also, he might know that the military available aren't prepared to put up a fight.

 

[Zetatrain]

Gosh. This is interesting.



Oh, I don't think he'll carve out a territory, he'll march on Moscow and launch, I guess, a kind of coup. What sort of coup? Remove Putin? Just clear out the elites he doesn't like and leave Putin in charge, nominally or effectively?

A lot of the Russian troops that could stop him are deployed in Ukraine. And also, he might know that the military available aren't prepared to put up a fight.

If Wagner maintains a presence in Rostov they could effectively hold the entire supply line to the southern front in Ukraine hostage. Given the counter offensive going on right now, i don't think i need to explain why that would be a massive problem for Russia.

As for Prigozhin's goals, at first I thought he was just trying to oust Shoigu, but apparently Wagner's official telegram recently posted,
"Putin made the wrong choice. That's worse for him. Soon we will have a new President."

If that's true then I think Prigozhin is going all in.

EDIT:
I believe Rastov is also where Russia's central command for the southern front is located.