Election results discussion thread (and sadly the inevitable aftermath)

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SilentPony

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Also just so everyone is aware President Trump's janky legal and political campaign to overturn his loss to President-elect Joe Biden through the courts and state legislatures effectively dies today, when the "safe harbor" deadline locks in certified vote counts. As of Monday night, 47 states and the District of Columbia have certified their results, giving Biden electoral votes to spare. Under the 1887 Electoral Count Act, each state's slate of electors chosen by the "safe harbor" date "is final and presumptively cannot be challenged in court or in Congress.

Now in those fake "hearings", on TV and at rallies Trump and his cultists have said the safe harbor deadline is meaningless and they intended to blow right past it, however their court filings as always are different, insisting the courts halt the certification process before the deadline. So basically after today everything is just for drama and fund raising, if it ever was about anything else, which it wasn't.
 

Houseman

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Yeah shit like that actually has to be proven in court.
Well, it's part of the lawsuit, and apparently the mathematical proof is included in the appendix, but I don't think that's readily available on the internet
 

Cheetodust

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Look at CNN attacking Smartmatic and Chavez for rigging the election.
And now they're reversing their stance saying it's just a right-wing conspiracy.



Did you quote me from like 30 odd pages ago? How? Even looking at your notifications you're easily the most quoted person in this thread by a wide margin. Well I don't doubt your sincerity now. You're working to hard to be a troll.
 
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Houseman

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Did you quote me from like 30 odd pages ago? How?
I searched the site for "Chavez", found your post from earlier, and quoted it. I just remembered a bunch of people had mocked the idea that Chavez or Venezuela had any links with Smartmatic, which had links with Dominion, and then wanted to show them their own media telling them that they were wrong.

You're overestimating the amount of work that took.
 

Houseman

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Also just so everyone is aware President Trump's janky legal and political campaign to overturn his loss to President-elect Joe Biden through the courts and state legislatures effectively dies today, when the "safe harbor" deadline locks in certified vote counts. As of Monday night, 47 states and the District of Columbia have certified their results, giving Biden electoral votes to spare. Under the 1887 Electoral Count Act, each state's slate of electors chosen by the "safe harbor" date "is final and presumptively cannot be challenged in court or in Congress.

Now in those fake "hearings", on TV and at rallies Trump and his cultists have said the safe harbor deadline is meaningless and they intended to blow right past it, however their court filings as always are different, insisting the courts halt the certification process before the deadline. So basically after today everything is just for drama and fund raising, if it ever was about anything else, which it wasn't.




Also:


And now Louisiana has joined the Texas lawsuit:
 
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Kwak

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In his filing, Mr Paxton argues the states in question “exploited the COVID-19 pandemic” to enact “last-minute changes” to their electoral rules, “skewing” the outcome of the election.

The full motion, which you can read here, contains many of the same allegations that have already been thrown out of state and federal court across the country.

It also includes some rather striking claims of its own.

For example, Mr Paxton argues the probability that Mr Biden could have won the popular vote in all four of the defendant states, given Mr Trump’s early lead in them “as of 3am on November 4”, was “less than one in a quadrillion, or 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000”.

He cites “expert analysis using a commonly accepted statistical test”.

As we have explained at some length before, Mr Trump leapt to early leads in the states Mr Paxton refers to because it took longer to count the votes in heavily Democratic areas, which were more populous and much more likely to have a large number of mail-in votes.

The Trump campaign says Mr Biden’s comebacks in Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were due to widespread fraud.

It has yet to convince a single judge that there is actually any evidence to support that claim, resulting in dozens of court defeats and a series of withering judgments.

....
Fighting words, to be sure, but they did not impress legal experts, who expressed severe doubts that the court would even agree to hear Mr Paxton’s case.

Rick Hasen, an election law expert and professor at the University of California, said Mr Paxton’s lawsuit may have replaced the one filed by Congressman Mike Kelly in Pennsylvania as “the dumbest case I’ve ever seen filed on an emergency basis at the Supreme Court”.

“This is a press release masquerading as a lawsuit,” Prof Hasen said.

“Texas doesn’t have standing to raise these claims as it has no say over how other states choose electors; it could raise these issues in other cases and does not need to go straight to the Supreme Court; it waited too late to sue; the remedy Texas suggests of disenfranchising tens of millions of voters after the fact is unconstitutional; there’s no reason to believe the voting conducted in any of the states was done unconstitutionally; it’s too late for the Supreme Court to grant a remedy even if the claims were meritorious (they are not).

“What utter garbage. Dangerous garbage, but garbage.”

He noted that Texas’s Solictor General Kyle Hawkins, whose job it is to supervise and conduct the state’s litigation in the Supreme Court, had not put his name on the lawsuit, surmising that Mr Hawkins “surely would not sign this garbage”.

...
Prominent Texas appellate lawyer Raffi Melkonian kept his assessment brief.

“The new Paxton lawsuit is not worth a lot of your time, but I mean, it doesn’t make any sense and is bad and has no chance of success at all. Just want to be clear on that,” Mr Melkonian said.

Finally, Eugene Mazo from the Louis D. Brandeis School of Law told Law & Crime Mr Paxton’s lawsuit was the “craziest case” of the post-election period.

“This is the dumbest case any lawyer has ever seen, and the Supreme Court won’t touch it. Really, this is the craziest case of them all. Unbelievable,” Prof Mazo said.

“It’s just unbelievable to any sane, normal person who understands the structure of our constitutional system and how it functions.”
 
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Cheetodust

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I searched the site for "Chavez", found your post from earlier, and quoted it. I just remembered a bunch of people had mocked the idea that Chavez or Venezuela had any links with Smartmatic, which had links with Dominion, and then wanted to show them their own media telling them that they were wrong.

You're overestimating the amount of work that took.
CNN is my media?
 

Silvanus

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And now Louisiana has joined the Texas lawsuit:
Is this lawsuit genuinely just over the fact that the PA Judiciary were the ones to extend the deadline for the acceptance of mail-in ballots, rather than the legislature?

Because if so, and the suit isn't even alleging the votes were fraudulent, then that's such a thinly veiled effort to overturn it just because they don't like the result.
 

Houseman

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Is this lawsuit genuinely just over the fact that the PA Judiciary were the ones to extend the deadline for the acceptance of mail-in ballots, rather than the legislature?
The gist of it is, the unconstitutional last-minute changes that were made resulted in a sloppy handling of the election. The sloppy handling introduced way too much doubt, broke way to many security features, and therefore disenfranchised way too many people of their vote as a result.

They're accusing other states of not conducting a proper election, which impacts everyone.

It's like suing your next door neighbor for having a meth lab in their living room.
 

crimson5pheonix

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A bit of background that I'm sure has no bearing on this, but Ken Paxton, the AG of Texas filing this claim, is not only a Trump sycophant but is also under indictment for multiple felonies related to securities fraud that I'm sure Trump could pardon, if he had a reason to.
 

Silvanus

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The gist of it is, the unconstitutional last-minute changes that were made resulted in a sloppy handling of the election. The sloppy handling introduced way too much doubt, broke way to many security features, and therefore disenfranchised way too many people of their vote as a result.

They're accusing other states of not conducting a proper election, which impacts everyone.
Right. But since they can't actually demonstrate all of that fallout in court-- its speculative, based solely on testimony-- they're resting it just on the constitutional angle. To avoid having to meet the evidentiary bar required to prove the breaches actually happened.
 

Agema

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For example, Mr Paxton argues the probability that Mr Biden could have won the popular vote in all four of the defendant states, given Mr Trump’s early lead in them “as of 3am on November 4”, was “less than one in a quadrillion, or 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000”.

He cites “expert analysis using a commonly accepted statistical test”.
It might have been a commonly accepted statistical test, but potentially not the right statistical test for the data under analysis. The other factor of course is garbage in, garbage out. If you've selected the wrong data and/or made the wrong assumptions, you're just going to get the wrong answer even if you used the right statistical test.

Imagine a grocer has a stock of 1000 apples and wants to know how many they'll have left at the end of the day. So they ask an analyst who assumes that they will have 50 customers who buy an average of four applies each, so they should have 800 left. Except that day the grocer has 100 customers who bought an average of five apples each and so ended up with 500 apples left.

If the analyst then told the grocer that many of the apples must have been stolen because the model showed it was statistically almost impossible that the grocer could have sold so many apples, I think the grocer might have some unkind opinions of the analyst.
 

Houseman

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Right. But since they can't actually demonstrate all of that fallout in court-- its speculative, based solely on testimony-- they're resting it just on the constitutional angle. To avoid having to meet the evidentiary bar required to prove the breaches actually happened.
I don't need to prove that the next door meth lab hurt me to get it removed.
 

SilentPony

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A bit of background that I'm sure has no bearing on this, but Ken Paxton, the AG of Texas filing this claim, is not only a Trump sycophant but is also under indictment for multiple felonies related to securities fraud that I'm sure Trump could pardon, if he had a reason to.
How dare you! Are you implying a Republican, a red blooded all America apple pie loving REPUBLICAN would ever, ever, ever, EVER break the law to further their own personal wealth and position? And are you further implying, to the detriment of your immortal soul, that Republicans, the law and order party, would perpetrate a nation wide voter fraud witch hunter not the sake and safety of the American democracy but as a means to position themselves to receive the blessing of Donald Trump while he's still in office, either through the granting of pardons or acknowledgement of their loyalty so as to continue their rise in Republican politics as a chosen member of the King Maker's inner circle?! HOW DARE YOU!

Next you're going to be telling me Trump and his campaign have been pocketing the donation money, or Rudy Giuliani is aiming for a pardon himself for his role in the Ukraine scandal or the white wine bimbo wants her own pro-Trump talk show or Trump Jr. wants to run in 2024. And at that point I say fuck off 'cause that can't possibly be true!
 
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Adam Jensen

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The sloppy handling introduced way too much doubt
The only thing that introduced doubt was Trump.

They're accusing other states of not conducting a proper election, which impacts everyone.
Right. Too many Americans were allowed to vote this time around. We can't have that. Especially not if those people have darker skin.

Dude, Republicans literally admitted that allowing more people to vote will result in them losing elections. They do not allege voter fraud when they say this. This is what they say when they think that no one is listening. They know that they are not popular. They know that the vast majority of Americans are not GOP voters. And instead of changing their platform, they've decided to dig in deeper, to go all in on the conspiracies and fascism. They are willing to end democracy to stay in power.
 

Houseman

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The only thing that introduced doubt was Trump.
The doubt concerning mail in ballots existed long before Trump. Jimmy Carter warned against them. MIT warned against them. Every one of the largest news media groups warned against them.

But then the media narrative changed because they wanted to "inspire confidence" i.e. lie.

So, no, Trump just reminded everyone of the doubt that already existed while the media tried to make everyone forget.

I guess you were one of the ones who forgot.
 

Avnger

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I don't need to prove that the next door meth lab hurt me to get it removed.
You do need to prove the following in a court of law:

1. There actually is a meth lab somewhere.
2. The meth lab is next door to you.
3. Meth labs operating is against the law.
4. "Removal" is the law-approved and precedent-appropriate remedy for it existing.

So far, these lawsuits have done none of the above though...
 
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Kwak

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The doubt concerning mail in ballots existed long before Trump. Jimmy Carter warned against them. MIT warned against them. Every one of the largest news media groups warned against them.

But then the media narrative changed because they wanted to "inspire confidence" i.e. lie.
Oh fuck off you liar.
....
But Carter on Thursday pointed to a statement last May from the Carter Center endorsing the use of mail-in ballots. Using the findings from the 2005 commission report, that statement argued "that where safeguards for ballot integrity are in place ... there was little evidence of voter fraud."
In its report, the commission had mentioned Oregon -- which votes entirely by mail -- as a model, noting that the state "appears to have avoided significant fraud in its vote by mail elections by introducing safeguards to protect ballot integrity, including signature verification. Vote by mail is, however, likely to increase the risks of fraud and of contested elections in other states, where the population is more mobile, where there is some history of troubled elections, or where the safeguards for ballot integrity are weaker."
The May statement from the Carter Center continued, "Fortunately, since 2005, many states have gained substantial experience in vote-by-mail and have shown how key concerns can be effectively addressed through appropriate planning, resources, training, and messaging."


 

Houseman

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Yes, him, like everyone else on the left, are changing their tunes about mail-in ballots. That's what I said before, isn't it?

"Fortunately, since 2005, many states have gained substantial experience in vote-by-mail and have shown how key concerns can be effectively addressed through appropriate planning, resources, training, and messaging."
We have hundreds of affidavits testifying that procedures weren't followed, the type of "signature validation", that acts as a "safeguard' wasn't properly done.
 
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