Analyst: Xbox One Could Outship PS4 3-to-1

[Weaver]

Did everyone conveniently forget the Red Ring of Death? I'm not going anywhere near an MS console in the first 6 - 12 months while all the hardware issues get worked out.

 

[IshimaruHayato]

Microsoft could have a home teleportation service, it still wouldn't matter if no one gives a shit.

Well that teleportation service would need to always be connect to the internet and kinect for it to work

 

[DRTJR]

Microsoft could have a home teleportation service, it still wouldn't matter if no one gives a shit.

So I won't be surprised when kids that really don't have the ability to go around pre-ordering things, come into stores with their parents to get the PS4, but it ends up being out of stock, then at that point about a third of those parents are probably going to tell their kid to just get an Xbox One, because a game console is a game console.

It is sad, but true.

you're forgetting one key element, the WiiU. If as you say a third will just grab something then the much cheeper console with more games would win out over the more expensive one with fewer games. Thus your scenario only holds up after the PS4 & WiiU sell out.

 

[thespyisdead]

personally i am surprised by this seeing as how MS took some awful PR decisions, and i personally plan on jumping onto the pc...

this just shows that there is a huge fanatic fan base of the Xbox, which apparently i am not fanatic enough to stay in

 

[Sonic Doctor]

snip

you're forgetting one key element, the WiiU. If as you say a third will just grab something then the much cheeper console with more games would win out over the more expensive one with fewer games. Thus your scenario only holds up after the PS4 & WiiU sell out.

Aaahh, but you are forgetting that a ton of families have a Wii, and many of those parents are too stupid to see that the Wii U is a new console and not just some kind of similar side version of the Wii. The kid will settle for the Wii U, but then the parent will get the Xbox One instead because they will say, "But Timmy, we already have a Wii at home, so the Xbox One is the only choice." Then said parents will not hear another word out of their kid's mouth because they don't want too seem like they don't know what they are talking about.

 

[DRTJR]

snip

you're forgetting one key element, the WiiU. If as you say a third will just grab something then the much cheeper console with more games would win out over the more expensive one with fewer games. Thus your scenario only holds up after the PS4 & WiiU sell out.

Aaahh, but you are forgetting that a ton of families have a Wii, and many of those parents are too stupid to see that the Wii U is a new console and not just some kind of similar side version of the Wii. The kid will settle for the Wii U, but then the parent will get the Xbox One instead because they will say, "But Timmy, we already have a Wii at home, so the Xbox One is the only choice." Then said parents will not hear another word out of their kid's mouth because they don't want too seem like they don't know what they are talking about.

Ah but with the bad Economy the substualy cheeper WiiU will apeel to those brain dead morons because it's $200+ less than the Xbone which they can watch a few pay per view wrestling matches with.

 

[lunavixen]

It might SOUND like a good thing for Microsoft, but there are numerous holes in their logic.

1) The xbone is only shipping to 21 countries, therefore if each company has manufactured the same amount of consoles, Microsofts narrower audience means that each location is going to have more consoles each (maybe). But, because of the narrower audience, Microsoft is going to lose a sizable market chunk to the PS4 because it's not being sold in so many places.

2) Units shipped means diddly squat, it's the units sold that matter, they could ship heaps of units to somewhere, but if they don't sell, then what's the point?

3) With the PR nightmares they've had, they've lost quite a proportion of their fanbase.

4) There is a $50 price tag difference in Australia ($549 for the PS4 and $599 for the Xbone), parents and other consumers who are more budget concious are more likely to go for the cheaper console, the PS4

5) Some of the features touted for the Xbone are US exclusive

 

[Lightknight]

It would have to sell more than the ps4 for us to ever know. As is, the ps4 is outselling the XBO by what could be over 5:1.

So this is like saying that a shit sandwich company is able to ship more sandwiches with shit in them than a company that makes turkey sandwiches. The response being, ok... but more people are going to buy the turkey sandwich so why does that matter?

That is only a functionally working analogy. The XBO is completely a legitimate console that will likely be a lot of fun. They only did extremely anti-consumer things that made them look like a shit sandwich company but their meat was actually also turkey... to continue the analogy.

But here is are the actual ratios so far:

Amazon's top 100 best sellers of the year so far:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2013/videogames/ref=zg_bsar_nav_b_0_b

1. The PS4 launch day version is #3. The XBO day one version is #6. Both have sold out. But this means that Sony has more day one orders than XBO does just to start.

2. The ps4 standard edition is #43. The XBO standard edition is not even on the list.

3. All four PS4 bundle editions (Watch Dogs, Killzone, Knack, and Battlefield 4) have sold out and only recently got more bundles available. The Watch Dogs bundle is currently #85 and at least two of the other bundles had been on the list until recently so they had comparable numbers (don't know about the knack bundle numbers).

If even the bundles are outselling the XBO standard edition, I don't think Microsoft needs to worry about how great their distribution chain is. Every single one of those bundles right now count as 1 more time over the XBO that the ps4 is selling. We're looking at at the very least a 4-1 ratio in Sony's favor with the launch day edition alone outselling the XBO version. With the Standard edition so high and the knack bundle also sold out, we could be talking 6:1 or even higher. That's a shocking result.

http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-video-games/zgbs/videogames

That's the best sellers every hour. Numbers are as follows:

1. PS4 Standard: #7 best seller this past hour.
2. PS4 Watch Dogs Bundle: #18
3. PS4 Battlefield 4 bundle: #34
4. XBO Standard Edition: #52
5. PS4 Killzone 4 bundle: #53

So it doesn't look like there's any relief for them either, with even the third least popular PS4 bundle pacing at the standard XBO version and no XBO bundles that I know of (at least, none that are selling well). Best course of action for XBO may be to price drop and take a hit now to get more customers later. But that's highly unlikely and would be seen as desperate.

A positive note for them, however, is in the most wished for in video games:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/most-wished-for/videogames

PS4 standard is still #1 and at least one bundle is on the list. But at least the XBO standard edition is finally on the first page after such a long time. The XBO launch edition (which has been sold out for some time) is finally dropping now that people are aware of the standard edition. So, interest is there, it's just MUCH smaller than Sony's. Which is funny because Sony was the underdog last time around. Wished for ps4 versions of multiplayer games are vastly outperforming XBO versions and the ps4 controllers are tracking far higher than XBO ones. So Microsoft has to do something fast.

 

[BrotherRool]

How does a logistics advantage carry anything past the first few weeks? Both Sony and Microsoft will have a metric fuckton of preorders to fill, and it's obvious that the one with better supply lines will ship more units in a given period of time. Once the launch weeks are over, none of that matters any more.

That's the important thing. I mean the 360 started out with a 5 million sales lead over the PS3 due to launch timings and the PS3 still eventually caught up and overtook it.

If both consoles are popular enough to have supply problems for a couple of months after launch though, it will give the One some of the momentum back that it had lost in the pre-release PR. This probably puts them on a more level footing than anything else

 

[Sonic Doctor]

Considering the PS4 has higher cap limits than the Xbone, and that while I know plenty of people getting a PS4 (hell, even my little brother is shelling out the money and he's a dedicated Nintendo fan) I don't know anyone ordering the Xbone, I have no clue what this analyst thinks he's saying.

The Xbone is more expensive, less popular, and all current evidence suggests that Sony has more product to ship than Microsoft.

You may not know anyone that is getting an Xbox One, but that doesn't mean they won't sell like hot cakes, which they are in my area.

I happened to be in a GameStop while a friend was paying off a game pre-order, and I was curious, so I asked the service guy how both PS4 and Xbox One were doing on pre-orders. He told me that they weren't taking any more pre-orders at the moment, because they had already run over the pre-order limit on both with the amount they were guaranteed to have on launch.

If that is the case with most GameStops, then even with Microsoft's screw-ups, they are still neck and neck with Sony.

 

[Avaholic03]

This just in: American product sells better in America

"shocking" said no one.

Oh, so that's why Ford, GM, Chrysler, etc. are doing so much better than Toyota, Honda, Nissan, etc. ?

 

[Mister Chippy]

Considering the PS4 has higher cap limits than the Xbone, and that while I know plenty of people getting a PS4 (hell, even my little brother is shelling out the money and he's a dedicated Nintendo fan) I don't know anyone ordering the Xbone, I have no clue what this analyst thinks he's saying.

The Xbone is more expensive, less popular, and all current evidence suggests that Sony has more product to ship than Microsoft.

You may not know anyone that is getting an Xbox One, but that doesn't mean they won't sell like hot cakes, which they are in my area.

I happened to be in a GameStop while a friend was paying off a game pre-order, and I was curious, so I asked the service guy how both PS4 and Xbox One were doing on pre-orders. He told me that they weren't taking any more pre-orders at the moment, because they had already run over the pre-order limit on both with the amount they were guaranteed to have on launch.

If that is the case with most GameStops, then even with Microsoft's screw-ups, they are still neck and neck with Sony.

Did you bother to ask how many preorders they were allowed to take for each system? Because I did.

Last time I checked Gamestop had over five times more preorders available for the PS4 than they did for the Xbone. So even though they're both sold out of preorders, there are still way more PS4s being sold. This may have changed, but I doubt by much.

 

[TiberiusEsuriens]

I'm just glad that he said that it "COULD" outship, not that it "WILL". Relax, everybody

 

[Sonic Doctor]

Aaahh, but you are forgetting that a ton of families have a Wii, and many of those parents are too stupid to see that the Wii U is a new console and not just some kind of similar side version of the Wii. The kid will settle for the Wii U, but then the parent will get the Xbox One instead because they will say, "But Timmy, we already have a Wii at home, so the Xbox One is the only choice." Then said parents will not hear another word out of their kid's mouth because they don't want too seem like they don't know what they are talking about.

Ah but with the bad Economy the substualy cheeper WiiU will apeel to those brain dead morons because it's $200+ less than the Xbone which they can watch a few pay per view wrestling matches with.

Okay, your logic fell off the cliff there because you didn't read what I said. My point was that stupid parents won't get the Wii U because they don't think it is a totally new system, just a Wii with a few new but unimportant peripheral things added and re-branded with a U at the end.

It won't matter if it costs less than the Xbox One, they aren't going to get the Wii U because they would look at it as buying something twice, since they already have a Wii.

 

[Denamic]

How does a logistics advantage carry anything past the first few weeks? Both Sony and Microsoft will have a metric fuckton of preorders to fill, and it's obvious that the one with better supply lines will ship more units in a given period of time. Once the launch weeks are over, none of that matters any more.

That's the important thing. I mean the 360 started out with a 5 million sales lead over the PS3 due to launch timings and the PS3 still eventually caught up and overtook it.

If both consoles are popular enough to have supply problems for a couple of months after launch though, it will give the One some of the momentum back that it had lost in the pre-release PR. This probably puts them on a more level footing than anything else

This isn't really about sales. It's logistics. It's about shipping out the consoles that are essentially already sold. After that first couple of weeks, this advantage is nullified, because the initial spike will have died out and people who couldn't get their hands on a console before can now.

The 360 had a 1 year head start over the PS3. The situations then and now aren't even in the same category.

 

[Slash2x]

So I will be able to see them collect dust at my local Gamestop AND Walmart. AWESOME! Yeah even the Micro$oft fans I know have ZERO intention of buying a first gen X(anything). Something about a 50%+ failure rate seems to make people not want to get your "but we made more of them" products.

Congratulations you made more of your console. And will probably have to remake many of them later.

I already bought my next game system..... 6 months ago.... And it still has specs that CRUSH the Xbone.

I may get a PS4 for my family room at some point though....

 

[jericu]

Doesn't really matter if it can outship the PS4 if no one wants to buy one...

 

[mattttherman3]

I of course have a plan. Ask for the Xbone for Xmas (whilst using my birthday gift as well) and buy the PS4 right after. Its foolproof

 

[Sonic Doctor]

Did you bother to ask how many preorders they were allowed to take for each system? Because I did.

Last time I checked Gamestop had over five times more preorders available for the PS4 than they did for the Xbone. So even though they're both sold out of preorders, there are still way more PS4s being sold. This may have changed, but I doubt by much.

I did actually. The one near me had an equal amount of each console that they were getting in. They said they did that because they didn't know exactly how many they would need of each in the beginning, so they decided to get same amount of both....and now both are pre-ordered out.

 

[Lightknight]

2) Units shipped means diddly squat, it's the units sold that matter, they could ship heaps of units to somewhere, but if they don't sell, then what's the point?

That's not true, units shipped from Microsoft's perspective IS units sold. That's retailers purchasing them. It just doesn't mean games sold unless the systems are purchased. When you hear X-number of units sold for most products, that's usually talking about how many copies were purchased directly AND by retailers. The original company doesn't care where they get the money unless the console is being sold at a loss. Then they'd want it to be going into the hands of gamers.

But yes, the is currently REALLY against them by comparison. Microsoft could ship 3 times their number right now and still not touch the ps4's numbers as I pointed out and cited above. With a likely 6:1 or higher ratio of ps4:XBO sales they've got a lot of ground to cover. Especially with Sony adding new bundle copies that are all mostly selling more than even the standard XBO version by themselves.

The good news for the XBO, this is really early on and they can gain ground in the coming years. Since the ps3 and 360 launched in different years, we don't actually know how much preorder sales impact final numbers. I mean, the ps3 sold much worse in the beginning and yet is fairly close to 360 units sold now. We know the 360 has sold 78.2 million units as of July 22nd and that the ps3 sold 75 million units as of February and is estimated to be 78 million right now. So they're surprisingly neck and neck despite Sony's bad start.

Their relative performance over the next 5 years will be one for the record books, that's for sure. A great business study if I've ever heard one.