Conflict between Palestine and Israel escalates

Seanchaidh

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it was supposed to last weeks.
this is some propaganda you absorbed without really looking into it, isn't it?
And anyone with experience of logistics knows it wouldn't be 3 years-- it would drag into a decade-long mire with such a bottleneck. If the US had actively planned for that the infrastructure would have been massive.
nonsense. as if everything needs to be in place before ink is even put to paper let alone dry.
 

crimson5pheonix

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Sure, but everyone knows the Russia-Ukraine war has dragged on far longer than its instigators planned; it was supposed to last weeks. And anyone with experience of logistics knows it wouldn't be 3 years-- it would drag into a decade-long mire with such a bottleneck. If the US had actively planned for that the infrastructure would have been massive.

I feel like behind this contention is the feeling that I'm somehow excusing what Biden's administration did. I'm categorically not. He's the scum of the earth, but his god is money, whereas Trump's god is spectacle and admiration (as well as money). Money is served by selling weapons. It isn't served by spending billions on a doomed takeover and getting the US mired in another costly occupation.
You are making a lot of assumptions favorable to blowing this off. You said at first that a humanitarian corridor is not at all the same thing as forcibly removing the entire population, which is a very dicey thing to say. Then you say it would take too long, and now you're backpeddling even that when it's pointed out that it wouldn't take long at all. Your argument has morphed considerably the more you're challenged on it. That's why I doubt your sincerity.

As for Biden's motivation, he just tanked not only himself but his entire party on backing Israel and... spending billions on a doomed takeover and getting the US mired in another costly occupation. US military has gone to bat beating back people trying to stop Israel, that's not weapons sold, that is boots on the ground costing taxpayers.
 

Silvanus

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You are making a lot of assumptions favorable to blowing this off. You said at first that a humanitarian corridor is not at all the same thing as forcibly removing the entire population, which is a very dicey thing to say. Then you say it would take too long, and now you're backpeddling even that when it's pointed out that it wouldn't take long at all.
My position was never that it would take so long that it would be literally impossible.

It's that if someone was planning something of such enormous scale, they wouldn't put forward a blueprint that would bottleneck the process into a decade-long mire, and then give up within 1 month.

As for Biden's motivation, he just tanked not only himself but his entire party on backing Israel and... spending billions on a doomed takeover and getting the US mired in another costly occupation. US military has gone to bat beating back people trying to stop Israel, that's not weapons sold, that is boots on the ground costing taxpayers.
What he's done has made hay for the defence contractors, which are the stakeholders he's interested in. The American boots currently on the ground are the tiniest fraction of what would be required for actual occupation.
 
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Silvanus

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this is some propaganda you absorbed without really looking into it, isn't it?
Russia attempted to take Kyiv in February 2022, and unexpectedly failed. The war is now coming up on 3 years, much of which has featured grinding attritional gains. But sure, all part of the plan.

nonsense. as if everything needs to be in place before ink is even put to paper let alone dry.
Nope, it doesn't. There's plenty of room for all kinds of counterfactual speculation.
 

crimson5pheonix

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My position was never that it would take so long that it would be literally impossible.

It's that if someone was planning something of such enormous scale, they wouldn't put forward a blueprint that would bottleneck the process into a decade-long mire, and then give up within 1 month.



What he's done has made hay for the defence contractors, which are the stakeholders he's interested in. The American boots currently on the ground are the tiniest fraction of what would be required for actual occupation.
It's only decade long under specific assumptions that can't be made. By the math, it could be done in a single presidential term (it would cross over 1 by virtue of when it could be started), the only question is what standards the Palestinians would be given in such a scenario, and the guiding principal in seeing this is that they squeezed 1.4 million people into a camp designed for 36,000 people in something like 4 months. Your logistics argument doesn't hold water.
 
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Silvanus

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It's only decade long under specific assumptions that can't be made. By the math, it could be done in a single presidential term (it would cross over 1 by virtue of when it could be started), the only question is what standards the Palestinians would be given in such a scenario, and the guiding principal in seeing this is that they squeezed 1.4 million people into a camp designed for 36,000 people in something like 4 months. Your logistics argument doesn't hold water.
OK, so say it was logistically feasible in 3 years, the question is; Why plan so small for an undertaking so enormous? Average visitor attractions see 5x as much daily footfall; if they wanted to accommodate it, they could. And why give up so quickly for something so central to the plan? This route was just left dead for a year.

You're right that I'm making some assumptions-- it's unavoidable when this isn't the timeline we're in. But so are you; this entire scenario is speculative. It didn't happen and we have no indication there were even talks of any kind of evac after early 2024.
 

crimson5pheonix

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OK, so say it was logistically feasible in 3 years, the question is; Why plan so small for an undertaking so enormous? Average visitor attractions see 5x as much daily footfall; if they wanted to accommodate it, they could. And why give up so quickly for something so central to the plan? This route was just left dead for a year.

You're right that I'm making some assumptions-- it's unavoidable when this isn't the timeline we're in. But so are you; this entire scenario is speculative. It didn't happen and we have no indication there were even talks of any kind of evac after early 2024.
Because at the beginning of this whole tangent was Trump saying he wants to evacuate the Palestinians out of Gaza for their own good and safety to rebuild it. A move everyone can see the intention behind, no matter how long it would take, what kind of logistics he would put into place, or force he would use to move the Palestinians. But we're not talking about how infeasible it is for him. We shouldn't.

Why are we saying it was infeasible for Biden when he suggested the exact same thing and tried to enact it?
 
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Seanchaidh

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Russia attempted to take Kyiv in February 2022, and unexpectedly failed. The war is now coming up on 3 years, much of which has featured grinding attritional gains. But sure, all part of the plan.
Goalposts successfully moved.

Nope, it doesn't. There's plenty of room for all kinds of counterfactual speculation.
So what is the infrastructure that is in place for Trump's plan?
 

Satinavian

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If you compare Biden and Trump at what they actually say and take this at face value, Trumps plan is far worse, as Biden never talked about the whole population or permanent resettlement or giving up territory.

Only if you imply that Biden secretly wanted far more, it gets slightly similar. However where Bidens at-face-value plan would have been feasible, this extrapolated idea of what he might have really wanted is not.

Sure, Trumps idea is not feasible even at face value, because Trump is an utter moron. But alone by stating that as official US policy it gives Israel a blank cheque to do whatever it can do, where before Biden regularly set red lines that he was not willing to enforce So i think even the actual results will be worse as if Kamala had won.

Thankfully war exhaustion might make the truce hold. Even if the newly emboldened Netanyahu seems keen to start again
 

Seanchaidh

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If you compare Biden and Trump at what they actually say and take this at face value, Trumps plan is far worse, as Biden never talked about the whole population or permanent resettlement or giving up territory.
Biden also never said that he and his State Department were publicly blaming Hamas for "not accepting a ceasefire deal" when Hamas, in fact, had and Netanyahu's regime hadn't, but that is what they did. Biden also never said that the "humanitarian aid pier" would be used for israeli military operations, but it was-- and then was promptly abandoned, as if that were its main purpose (especially as it fell far short of its stated goals even while in nominal operation). The Biden administration constantly demonstrated that it was thoroughly untrustworthy.

Biden has been a shameless liar for his whole political career, not just about the Zionist project in Palestine. But I suppose that is beyond scope.

Only if you imply that Biden secretly wanted far more, it gets slightly similar. However where Bidens at-face-value plan would have been feasible, this extrapolated idea of what he might have really wanted is not.
'israel' plainly wanted far more and Biden never showed any sign that he would do anything meaningful to stop them. Any international 'humanitarian corridor' out of Gaza would be used by israel for as much ethnic cleansing as they think they could get away with.