Zachary Amaranth said:
The biggest problem in this argument is that the free market generally continues to favour bullshit practices.
Best of the 3 said:
I was not around back then so I can't really say.
Sure you can. It's called history. There's enough data out there that you can reasonably draw a conclusion.
The thing is, people have been calling for a crash for over a decade, ever since someone drew some specious correlation between gaming in the pre-crash market and now, and they'll predict it for another 200 years if that's what it takes. Why? the same reason people predicted the end of the world in 2012. People love to be prognosticators.
Really liked this post, thought I would chime in and comment... having of watched the same video earlier this morning and coming away with the same conclusions.
Now, I haven't watched the whole video you embedded, but it already sort of comes off like Zeitgeist or Loose Change.
You didn't miss much.
While the creator is correct that ET didn't cause the crash alone, he's incorrect on multiple levels. The game itself was part of a handful of titles that did more damage through overspeculation than any consumer backlash could ever hope to do: Simply, the companies behind them thought they would sell better than they had any indicator of previously and gambled on what was then a much more expensive production process.
Very true, the notion comes back to inflationary business models. Borrowing money at X rate, and growing that invest at X+return, outpacing the debt. One of the biggest differences (having of been around during the bubble popping) was that like any market, there were competitive markets in place in which "video games" where emerging into. Specifically the toys and table top gaming. The PC market during this time frame was demonstrably not affected by the console issues suffered by Atari, Coleco, and some others. Coleco - COnnecticut LEather COmpany was clearly diversified. (Amiga) Commodore 64 was the place to be anyways if one was serious about the hobby. The PC remaining relatively stable or negligible during the 2-3 year dry patch. (Which as I recall... was about all it was).
Right off the top of my head there was a Dry Patch after Doom 3... probably think of some more.
Contrast this with the current gaming market. SimCity alone should tell you that they tend to plan for a minimalist sort of deal, underinvesting rather than overinsvesting. He brings up Pac-Man, granted to ***** about the programming. What he ignores is that the game actually sold quite well, and there was no consumer backlash. People ate the game up like people ate games up before. However, the game sold poorly in relation to number of copies manufactured, a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT THING that negates his thesis entirely.
It was this certainly. Played the beta/demo and having of seen it in action SimCity, is
Sim's in a City neighborhood. It is it's own product that pulls at nostalgia more than it satisfies as a competent city builder. Reinstalling Sim City 4, for a cursory comparison (with the NAM) mod, reveals just how "feature lite" SimCity is. Reminds me a lot of this:
VS.
It's not a bad game, but as a comparison there really isn't one... they are not even close, totally different design focus and philosophy. The kinds of problems which SimCity has are very similar to those of Railroads... shortcut design which lead to systems colliding.
He then dishonestly treats the quality of gaming as though it plunged suddenly, when the truth is that was never the case.
Nope, that was never the case at all. 1984 had Gauntlet released for Atari 8 bit, which ostensibly IS the model in which all loot grinders follow. If anything what we see here is one of the examples of streamlining a more sophisticated product into the home market. For the video's argument to really stick the landing the major publishers would have to be releasing "Proteus" in the line up. Which they are clearly not.
Enough about that, though. I don't know when I'll finish the video. What I do know is that video games are big business now, and a big business that plays conservatively. Bad games tend to get put out because they will sell, as did SimCity. Even AVPCM was brought out in no small part due to the risk to the license if it didn't come out, and it was crap mostly because of issues of fraud from the looks of things. Hell, we see the same thing in movie franchises all the time, and nobody's serious about a film crash.
Looking at the Japanese system "to the rescue", again there really wasn't much in the way (and to this day not much in the way) of a PC market in Japan. Japan didn't really have an Atari bubble, simply by starting in an 8-bit era and having most of the leg work (that is the developer's copied US PC) out of the way.
The PS4 makes sense... in Japan, but Japan has little to no PC marketplace.
If the video wanted to make a case it is that their is an industry wide recession which is coupled to the double and triple dip recessions of world markets. We are in the crash... we are looking at it. I think he "realizes" that about mid way, and then attempts a slippery slope to suggest that EA and others will not climb out of the hole under the DLC and shovel-ware model.
Most the major players saw this coming miles away, which is one of the reasons there are "key" IP with DLC and shovel-ware models attached to them. It doubled as both a way to limit on disc content and sell a used copy owner material digitally, but additionally allowed for further investment into products that would of normally been abandoned for a sequel.
That said, it does not surprise me to see John Carmack looking into new peripherals as a direction for escaping the generic and stymied limitations of current systems. The vast majority of titles today are being developed using off the shelf engines and design.
The video also try's to make a case for "Valve" doing everything right which is extremely debatable, but ultimately reinforces the original situation... PC never went away coupled with many of Valve products riding on the CS or derivative engine which is a rebuild or re-imagining of the Quake engine, which is taught at the University level.
What "I" suspect is really happening is a sharing of patents/technology between Micro$lop and $ony for the purposes of API to utilize 6-8 core threading on the Sony system as well as the kinect architecture. In exchange Sony lets Microsoft have Blu-Ray. Basically these consoles will be little more than dressed up HTPCs branded by their perspective leash holders and marketed/trimmed in such a way as they will resemble "rental" units, like a cable box, or a leased car.
And why not? Count how many people one knows and then count how many "out of" those people who actually "own" their car... out right.
Video gaming as a hobby on the low end of the economic scale "needs" to be priced accordingly to keep the rising cost affordable and competitive with the middle and upper middle class "PC". It wouldn't surprise me if the newer systems have "rentals" built into them and all sorts of other parasitic "nominal cost" features.
Additionally there is simply no "replacement" for the hobby as it stands today.
There is little to no "toy" market which isn't already tied into games, there is no "car" market without including the vast majority of lien and lease mobiles, there are major pullbacks in most physical mediums and hobbies, most of which are price gated anyways, which is what drove the home consumer electronics in the first place.
If the hand held phones had to be out-n-out purchased, that market would be where tumble weeds gathered.
To wax nostalgic Origin (games) where known for being "upgrade" titles, that is one "upgraded" one's PC to play it... those days are all but gone, gone and forgotten.
It's not just the console manufacturers scratching their heads but Nvidia and AMD are also questioning the future.
There is simply little to no market for 1000 dollar video cards when there are no titles that come close to utilizing 1000 dollar video cards... such as the GTX Titan. (which will SLi, unfortunately SimCity does not support that feature). Nice! =D
I guess I end on the saying "prepare to be bored". It's not just video games, a lot of industries (entertainment proper is no exception) is in a gulf of saturation, and diminishing returns (parasitic infestation of small developers).
Leading to more reserved projects which are financially manageable. The way to move forward is to get into a lend-lease-debt model for the majority of consumer. It would not surprise me in the slightest to see the new consoles to have "direct lease" agreements at launch.
2c anyways... Nice post again BTW.