New Documentary - Tracking Down the Origin of Wuhan Coronavirus

tstorm823

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Waiting to see how tstorm's gonna spin this one.
Not really that interested. It is really annoying that when people suggest it crossed species in a lab, someone usually responds "no, this is clearly not genetically modified!" But like, that's not the accusation. Well, perhaps for some loonies out there, but not for the most part. There's nothing unreasonable about suspecting the human infection started in a lab that studies specifically this sort of virus right next to where the outbreak started. There is no contradiction between "the virus occurred naturally" and "the infection started in a lab".

But like, I don't really care because a) we'll probably never know the answer, it's entirely possible the first person infected didn't even know that they were, and b) it's not an issue that's going to lead to any meaningful policy considerations. Even if the virus did jump to people in a lab in China, what's the conclusion there? Should China not be allowed to study viruses? That's not exactly a solution to future pandemics. Do we take back criticism of China if they prove the lab was unrelated? No, because their mistakes happened regardless of the viruses origin. And like, at this point I don't even think they're wrong to avoid investigations into it. I don't think it's even possible to exonerate them, so why would they even let the fishing expedition start? Trump's inclined to put maximum blame on China, but I think this is a detail that ultimately doesn't change anything.
 

Agema

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But like, I don't really care because a) we'll probably never know the answer, it's entirely possible the first person infected didn't even know that they were, and b) it's not an issue that's going to lead to any meaningful policy considerations. Even if the virus did jump to people in a lab in China, what's the conclusion there? Should China not be allowed to study viruses? That's not exactly a solution to future pandemics. Do we take back criticism of China if they prove the lab was unrelated? No, because their mistakes happened regardless of the viruses origin. And like, at this point I don't even think they're wrong to avoid investigations into it. I don't think it's even possible to exonerate them, so why would they even let the fishing expedition start? Trump's inclined to put maximum blame on China, but I think this is a detail that ultimately doesn't change anything.
We might point out that Western labs have let viruses loose before now. The UK managed to have a smallpox death in the 1970s from a badly maintained laboratory and I'm pretty sure there was a scare around the 90s/2000s (in maybe Germany?) after some criminals broke into a lab with dangerous pathogens. It's going to happen, and not necessarily worth hammering China for even if that's what happened.

But the function is clearly to shift the message on coronavirus to take the heat off inadequacies in the response of Western governments (and chiefly of course Trump) irrespective of the fact nothing meaningful will ever be found. It's crude, somewhat dishonest, and extremely had for international relations - but nothing matters to Trump except re-election.
 

tstorm823

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We might point out that Western labs have let viruses loose before now. The UK managed to have a smallpox death in the 1970s from a badly maintained laboratory and I'm pretty sure there was a scare around the 90s/2000s (in maybe Germany?) after some criminals broke into a lab with dangerous pathogens. It's going to happen, and not necessarily worth hammering China for even if that's what happened.

But the function is clearly to shift the message on coronavirus to take the heat off inadequacies in the response of Western governments (and chiefly of course Trump) irrespective of the fact nothing meaningful will ever be found. It's crude, somewhat dishonest, and extremely had for international relations - but nothing matters to Trump except re-election.
Ok, but it's worth noting, Covid-19 isn't worse than Smallpox, but that incident didn't turn into a global pandemic.

China's mistakes weren't that the first person got infected, whether or not it was in a lab or a wet market. The mistakes were that they didn't react properly after that. You'll notice, now that it's epidemic in western countries, it's being responded to as a worst case scenario: people are behaving as though it's not affected by summer weather, deadlier than any similar virus before it, and impossible to make a vaccine for. Like, when those criminals broke into a lab, it was a scare. The government of Germany most likely didn't speculate publicly that the pathogens weren't even transmissible.

Like, do you see the change in tone?

WHO when it was just China: "we don't have evidence it moves person to person". Ok, but you should behave as though it does, why would you say that?
WHO now: "we don't have evidence that people can be immune". Ok, but they almost certainly can, or the infection rate wouldnt be dropping. How do you people select what things you don't know to publicize?
 
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Silvanus

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Apologies, it was a liveblog; I posted that when the news had only just been reported (over here at least).

But like, I don't really care because a) we'll probably never know the answer, it's entirely possible the first person infected didn't even know that they were, and b) it's not an issue that's going to lead to any meaningful policy considerations. Even if the virus did jump to people in a lab in China, what's the conclusion there? Should China not be allowed to study viruses? That's not exactly a solution to future pandemics. Do we take back criticism of China if they prove the lab was unrelated? No, because their mistakes happened regardless of the viruses origin.
Trump is apparently planning retaliatory measures against China, so apparently he can and will let this affect meaningful policy.
 

Agema

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Ok, but it's worth noting, Covid-19 isn't worse than Smallpox, but that incident didn't turn into a global pandemic.

China's mistakes weren't that the first person got infected, whether or not it was in a lab or a wet market. The mistakes were that they didn't react properly after that. You'll notice, now that it's epidemic in western countries, it's being responded to as a worst case scenario: people are behaving as though it's not affected by summer weather, deadlier than any similar virus before it, and impossible to make a vaccine for. Like, when those criminals broke into a lab, it was a scare. The government of Germany most likely didn't speculate publicly that the pathogens weren't even transmissible.
Mm. So... how precisely did they react improperly?

A disease appears. It takes a while before anyone will notice because people die from all sorts of things all the time, and enough need to die in a way visible to someone who can see a pattern. And then, what is it - an existing disease like an old 'flu strain, or something new? Once we realise it's new, what are its characteristics to deal with it? How do we deal with it so the cure isn't worse than the disease? So a lot can occur before anyone realises there's a new disease and what to do to react to it. Now this is not to say China did a good job by any means, but I think we also need to stop and think how long it might reasonably take to realise the gravity of the situation. How much of this is going to be the wisdom of hindsight?

We also need to consider context, which we can do from our own countries. Our governments routinely cover stuff up they're embarrassed about, too. When the problem cannot be ignored, reacting involves difficult decisions. Why do we think leaders like Trump and Boris Johnson stalled and idled for so long, if not a mix of complacency and unwillingness to make those difficult decisions? Those don't excuse China's potential failings. But they do identify a hypocrisy in trying to "blame" China.

Like, do you see the change in tone?

WHO when it was just China: "we don't have evidence it moves person to person". Ok, but you should behave as though it does, why would you say that?
They said they didn't have evidence it moves person to person because they didn't have that evidence. It's their job to say what the facts are as they see them.

Deciding to assume it has human-human transmission goes into in the realm of major policy decisions. If the WHO starts trying to make guesses it opens the WHO to a lot of criticism if it's wrong - imagine if a country very expensively locks down because the WHO makes assumptions and then it turns out it wasn't needed? Also, it could be viewed by some countries as a potential form of interference, as it may make it harder for them to choose their own policy.

WHO now: "we don't have evidence that people can be immune". Ok, but they almost certainly can, or the infection rate wouldnt be dropping. How do you people select what things you don't know to publicize?
No, the infection rate can drop simply because of a reduced risk of transmission. If an average carrier infects fewer than 1 people, the number of infections goes down over time and if they infect more than 1 then the number of infected goes up over time. If we say each carrier infects another 2.5 people in normal lifestyle, simply through increased isolation that could reduce to (say) 0.8, and infections will gradually decrease.

I think we publicise what we know or don't know for the usual reasons: when explicitly asked, when it's implicit people want to know, or we deem it important / interesting.
 

Silvanus

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Do you think those measures are dependent on whether or not it jump species in a lab?
I think they're dependent on one thing only: whether Trump believes he can spin it into a line of attack, against either China or the WHO, in an effort to deflect blame. After all, his very next line...

Donald Trump said:
Yes, I have. Yes, I have [seen evidence that the Wuhan Institute of Virology was the origin of the virus]. And I think the World Health Organization [WHO] should be ashamed of themselves because they're like the public relations agency for China.
...Before going on to speculate that they may have "made" one;

Donald Trump said:
Whether they made a mistake, or whether it started off as a mistake and then they made another one, or did somebody do something on purpose?
It's quite clear what his priority is, here. This is specifically about assigning culpability. And it's an accusation with tremendous implications.
 

tstorm823

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No, the infection rate can drop simply because of a reduced risk of transmission. If an average carrier infects fewer than 1 people, the number of infections goes down over time and if they infect more than 1 then the number of infected goes up over time. If we say each carrier infects another 2.5 people in normal lifestyle, simply through increased isolation that could reduce to (say) 0.8, and infections will gradually decrease.

I think we publicise what we know or don't know for the usual reasons: when explicitly asked, when it's implicit people want to know, or we deem it important / interesting.
Right, but for example, we've been maintaining consistent behavior here for 6 weeks. The rate of new infections increased for weeks after the orders went into place. So each person was infecting more people. Now it has plateaued and started dropping. So each person in infecting fewer. The overall behavior hasn't changed, if anything people are going out more now than before. What's the difference? (You know the answer, you're just playing devil's advocate)

Organizations give public statements to impact people's behavior. When the WHO gives a statement about a disease, they know it will impact people's behavior, they're certainly not ignorant of that, and they'll formulate their messaging in a way that will elicit the response they deem desirable. Right now, they are saying things like "people might not develop immunity" because that statement encourages stricter quarantine, and they believe that's the responsible stance to take. When they were saying it might not spread between people, they did it because it would discourage people from cutting contact with China, because they believed that international relations hurting was a bigger threat than this coronavirus. Written public statements aren't quick press conference answers where you answer what's asked or say what you think is interesting. Written statement's are deliberate public relations moves with purpose.

The world health organization didn't make a statement that they have no evidence that covid-19 wasn't planted by space aliens for a reason. You don't give a statement of what you don't know for no reason.

I think they're dependent on one thing only: whether Trump believes he can spin it into a line of attack, against either China or the WHO, in an effort to deflect blame.
So you agree, where the virus made the first jump doesn't matter at all?
 

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They said they didn't have evidence it moves person to person because they didn't have that evidence. It's their job to say what the facts are as they see them.

Deciding to assume it has human-human transmission goes into in the realm of major policy decisions. If the WHO starts trying to make guesses it opens the WHO to a lot of criticism if it's wrong - imagine if a country very expensively locks down because the WHO makes assumptions and then it turns out it wasn't needed? Also, it could be viewed by some countries as a potential form of interference, as it may make it harder for them to choose their own policy.
There was evidence that the virus moved person-to-person. Taiwan sent their own people there, they saw what was really happening because they didn't trust China or the WHO. They reported it to the WHO and the WHO ignored them.
 

Agema

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Right, but for example, we've been maintaining consistent behavior here for 6 weeks. The rate of new infections increased for weeks after the orders went into place. So each person was infecting more people. Now it has plateaued and started dropping. So each person in infecting fewer. The overall behavior hasn't changed, if anything people are going out more now than before. What's the difference? (You know the answer, you're just playing devil's advocate)
The published rate of infections is necessarily the rate of known infections, i.e. those which have been tested for and come out positive. The observed rate therefore goes up simply because more people are tested (the USA had a very low testing rate in mid-March; there may be some variability on the dates of testing increases in your area). In other words, the official number infected in the early days of low testing (late March or so) is likely to be a significant underestimate, but much less so now.

Organizations give public statements to impact people's behavior. When the WHO gives a statement about a disease, they know it will impact people's behavior, they're certainly not ignorant of that, and they'll formulate their messaging in a way that will elicit the response they deem desirable. Right now, they are saying things like "people might not develop immunity" because that statement encourages stricter quarantine, and they believe that's the responsible stance to take. When they were saying it might not spread between people, they did it because it would discourage people from cutting contact with China, because they believed that international relations hurting was a bigger threat than this coronavirus. Written public statements aren't quick press conference answers where you answer what's asked or say what you think is interesting. Written statement's are deliberate public relations moves with purpose.
No. They say they don't know if people can catch coivd-19 twice because they don't know. There are proper experiments to do to determine this sort of thing: you can't flip a coin or just open a fortune cookie. South Korea has just today released a study on ~200 subjects (that's arguably quite small) suggesting coronavrius cannot be caught twice at least within the current timescale covid-19's been around. This because bearing in mind some immunities have a lifespan (e.g. why you have booster vaccines) so people immune now might not be in 12 months or 5 years.

The WHO can come out and provide advice like "don't send planes to Wuhan". And they did. They aren't going fanny around with strange "nudge" schemes to subconsciously control behaviour, never mind that the average national government isn't going to fall for that shit, as they tend to be full of hard-headed realpolitik types.

Finally, you know which countries had expert representatives on the WHO council? China, USA, Thailand, Russia, France, South Korea, Canada, Japan, Netherlands, Australia, Senegal, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, and New Zealand. That's a majority of Western countries, plenty of which are US allies. Why would they be particularly minded to protect China? Why would the US representative not maybe tell his own country if something dodgy was going on? Not that they're actually politicians, they're scientists and doctors, with far less motivation to fiddle what they say to achieve obscure aims of global domination or whatever other lurid fantasies paranoid Americans have about international bodies trying to take over the USA. I think if you don't understand theh WHO as a scientific / medical organisation and how scientists go about things, you are likely to misinterpret a lot of what the WHO does.

The world health organization didn't make a statement that they have no evidence that covid-19 wasn't planted by space aliens for a reason. You don't give a statement of what you don't know for no reason.
Fucking hell. The WHO is expected to explain what it knows, because issues of how a disease is transmitted and whether immunity is gained are incredibly important for epidemiology, public health and policy. If they didn't say anything about these things, the first thing that would happen is they'd be asked, so the obvious thing to do is say what they know, which might be "we don't know".

There was evidence that the virus moved person-to-person. Taiwan sent their own people there, they saw what was really happening because they didn't trust China or the WHO. They reported it to the WHO and the WHO ignored them.
The evidence from Taiwan was anecdotal and hearsay. It wasn't a study, it was a report that some Taiwanese doctors had been told by colleagues in Wuhan that medical personel were contracting covid-19, which is something consistent with human transmission. That's not even remotely close to enough to base official statements on.
 

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The evidence from Taiwan was anecdotal and hearsay. It wasn't a study, it was a report that some Taiwanese doctors had been told by colleagues in Wuhan that medical personel were contracting covid-19, which is something consistent with human transmission. That's not even remotely close to enough to base official statements on.
It doesn't take a study to figure out if something is transmitting from human to human. What's the chances that all the infected interacted with the animal(s)? The quickness the virus spreads and the amount of people infected (probably even prior to January) means it was traveling from person to person unless it was the greatest coincidence ever. Taiwan sent their own people there, it wasn't just like a Wuhan doctor Facebook messaged a Taiwanese doctor about it. Taiwan has literally only 6 deaths from the virus, they knew/know what they're fucking doing.
 

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Maybe we are actually living in a post truth society when we still have media outlets spread nonsense conspiracy theories and an absurd amount of people actually believe them and want to " retaliate" against other nations and go to war over something that we have no evidence at all of ever happening and instead have all the experts in the field telling us it didn't happen and have instead presented evidence that it was naturally formed.

Madness. I spent 30 minutes earlier trying to convince my Mom the nonsense she saw on TV about China making COVID-19 as a bio weapon was false and completely made up. TBH, people making this BS up and spreading it should be sued for trying to create undue stress and cause an international incident.


It would be nice if the courts shut this down like they shut down the Sandy hook and Pizzagate conspiracies. The only way I see that we can battle made up lies is by holding those spreading them accountable for their actions.
 
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Agema

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It doesn't take a study to figure out if something is transmitting from human to human. What's the chances that all the infected interacted with the animal(s)? The quickness the virus spreads and the amount of people infected (probably even prior to January) means it was traveling from person to person unless it was the greatest coincidence ever. Taiwan sent their own people there, it wasn't just like a Wuhan doctor Facebook messaged a Taiwanese doctor about it. Taiwan has literally only 6 deaths from the virus, they knew/know what they're fucking doing.
Actually, yes it does take a study. Not necessarily a controlled lab experiment, but it requires sufficient collection of data to both firmly ascertain something, including necessarily excluding other possibilities. This is the way science is done: start with a null hypothesis and collect evidence to overturn it. Science progresses by being meticulous and checking things, not going off half-cocked on appearances.

The WHO was perfectly accurate to say on Jan 12th it had "no clear evidence" of human to human transmission. Where we might want to ask difficult questions of China is whether China was timely in giving the WHO access to information about the disease which could have provided that evidence earlier. Taiwan can email the WHO with anecdotal stories supporting the notion of human to human transmission, but it's China that has the real data. That Taiwan had highly efficient disease containment systems does not make anecdotes any stronger.

Taiwan of course is also pushing this because it has an agenda: it's quasi-excluded from a lot of international affairs because of the "One China" issue, and is looking to increase leverage against China. (Which, personally, I am broadly in favour of - whatever the complications and legal issues, Taiwan is de facto an independent country which merits appropriate representation.)
 

tstorm823

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Madness. I spent 30 minutes earlier trying to convince my Mom the nonsense she saw on TV about China making COVID-19 as a bio weapon was false and completely made up. TBH, people making this BS up and spreading it should be sued for trying to create undue stress and cause an international incident.
You're not going to convince your mother to give up one stubborn falsehood for another. You'd probably stand a chance if you explained the lab they were talking about doesn't make viruses, it just studies ones that already exist, you might stand a chance. You need to present a reasoned, honest perspective that doesn't drip hatred for others.

Like, my siblings and I had to talk my mother down when she was being told the national guard was going to lock everyone in their homes for 30 days. I feel you. Blasting something she believed and saying that people spreading those rumors should be sued wouldn't have helped.
 

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You're not going to convince your mother to give up one stubborn falsehood for another. You'd probably stand a chance if you explained the lab they were talking about doesn't make viruses, it just studies ones that already exist, you might stand a chance. You need to present a reasoned, honest perspective that doesn't drip hatred for others.

Like, my siblings and I had to talk my mother down when she was being told the national guard was going to lock everyone in their homes for 30 days. I feel you. Blasting something she believed and saying that people spreading those rumors should be sued wouldn't have helped.
I didn't tell my mother that people should be sued. I thought that later, after reading nonsense people in my own community posted on facebook.. :p
I sent my mother links to the actual data from the scientists researching this and assured her that her assessment that " in the end they are going to find that it really came from this lab" was not evidence based and let her know where this conspiracy theory actually started. I think you read " hate" into things where there is none.

They should be sued for spreading falsehoods not because of "hatred" but because of the harm inflicted by their actions. Their actions of making up and spreading lies is provably harmful to others. Making publicized unfounded baseless accusations have been shown provably harmful repeatedly throughout our history, this event is no different.
 

stroopwafel

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Doesn't defense intelligence also consider a Wuhan lab accident a serious possibility? There was this article in newsweek where they reported that in the Wuhan lab they are keeping samples of RATG virus which is about 95% similar to novel corona. Now ofcourse if the coronavirus was manipulated with gene editing tools they would have found it(similarly like building a modern expansion on an old house) and scientific consensus is that the virus is the product of natural selection but that still doesn't rule out the possibility that multiple lab animals were infected with both RATG and some unknown virus making the source unidentifiable.

The most logic explanation is still the Wuhan wet markets with it's disgusting animal abuse and stacking together of wild animals that would never encounter one another in the natural world but China is also making itself suspect by frustrating any attempts to find patient X. That Trump capitalizes on this uncertainty should come as no surprise neither that it would further fuel conspiracy theories.

That China allowed wet markets to continue is bad enough but them remaining untransparent to dispel the myth of a lab accident will only further ferment conspiracy theories and sour relations with the Trump administration to the point of no return. With all it's potential for future conflict.
 

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Doesn't defense intelligence also consider a Wuhan lab accident a serious possibility? There was this article in newsweek where they reported that in the Wuhan lab they are keeping samples of RATG virus which is about 95% similar to novel corona. Now ofcourse if the coronavirus was manipulated with gene editing tools they would have found it(similarly like building a modern expansion on an old house) and scientific consensus is that the virus is the product of natural selection but that still doesn't rule out the possibility that multiple lab animals were infected with both RATG and some unknown virus making the source unidentifiable.

The most logic explanation is still the Wuhan wet markets with it's disgusting animal abuse and stacking together of wild animals that would never encounter one another in the natural world but China is also making itself suspect by frustrating any attempts to find patient X. That Trump capitalizes on this uncertainty should come as no surprise neither that it would further fuel conspiracy theories.

That China allowed wet markets to continue is bad enough but them remaining untransparent to dispel the myth of a lab accident will only further ferment conspiracy theories and sour relations with the Trump administration to the point of no return. With all it's potential for future conflict.
No. US intelligence has stated there is no evidence that it came from a lab.
and if you read the links posted from the scientists in the field above, you will see why.


Since when has China ever been transparent? China is just doing what China always does, that doesn't suddenly make this any more suspicious for them behaving the same way they have about anything in the history of ever.

If this had broken out from a barn with bats in it in the US can you just imagine what might be said about this from conspiracy theorists? This is no different. When I was a kid, I remember playing in my grandma's barn and being trampled by my sister running out screaming and then both of us running and screaming from the bats flying at us... This can happen anywhere. The more civilization encroaches upon wilderness, the more you can expect this to happen. In addition, we have been warning for quite some time that we are entering a time of antibiotic resistance and an expected increase in unknown illnesses due to climate change thus why we have been calling upon governments for the past decade to bolster their pandemic defenses, instead of reduce them as Trump did prior to this.
 
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Phoenixmgs

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Actually, yes it does take a study. Not necessarily a controlled lab experiment, but it requires sufficient collection of data to both firmly ascertain something, including necessarily excluding other possibilities. This is the way science is done: start with a null hypothesis and collect evidence to overturn it. Science progresses by being meticulous and checking things, not going off half-cocked on appearances.

The WHO was perfectly accurate to say on Jan 12th it had "no clear evidence" of human to human transmission. Where we might want to ask difficult questions of China is whether China was timely in giving the WHO access to information about the disease which could have provided that evidence earlier. Taiwan can email the WHO with anecdotal stories supporting the notion of human to human transmission, but it's China that has the real data. That Taiwan had highly efficient disease containment systems does not make anecdotes any stronger.

Taiwan of course is also pushing this because it has an agenda: it's quasi-excluded from a lot of international affairs because of the "One China" issue, and is looking to increase leverage against China. (Which, personally, I am broadly in favour of - whatever the complications and legal issues, Taiwan is de facto an independent country which merits appropriate representation.)
When something is as common sense as this was, you can say with 99.99999...% (with 9 repeating ad infinitum) confidence that the virus is transferring human-to-human. It's not like you have to make sure literally every object known to man falls to the ground to prove gravity exists. January 12th is basically 2 months since the 1st reported case, which means it was around before that. The rate at which the virus spreads and given the 2 month period, there's way more infections at Jan 12 than if it was only being passed from animals.

You can come up with really solid inferences just by doing the research on the internet. One of the guys at work was on top of this and telling us this is going to be serious before the WHO. I researched the hydroxychloroquine claims and came to a very founded conclusion that it doesn't work. The main Dr. Zelenko that put forth the claim was sketchy as all hell, the town he treats has less than 2% of the population that's older than 65, you can say just about anything like Cheerios cures the virus with that kind of low-risk population. There's was tons more anecdotal evidence from front line workers saying it didn't work as well. I also have a post in the old forum dated April 12th saying Remdesivir is the best hope for a treatment. And that was all before the studies about both drugs finished up.

I'm not saying don't do science and go through the scientific method (especially on the drug treatments) but you can dig up the information out there and come to informed conclusions. If the WHO went with the super extremely likely near 100% confirmed fact that the virus was going person-to-person, maybe other countries would've taken better steps like Taiwan did and wouldn't have had to resort to lockdowns to control the spread. It's not like Taiwan just "guessed right" and got lucky on something that was like 50% or even 80% likely. It's not like the virus is oddly unique in any way that would cause it to behave radically different than anything we've seen before. When something that can happen so quickly and time is of the utmost importance, you have to veer toward where the information is pointing even if you can't be 100% yet.
 

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If this had broken out from a barn with bats in it in the US can you just imagine what might be said about this from conspiracy theorists? This is no different. When I was a kid, I remember playing in my grandma's barn and being trampled by my sister running out screaming and then both of us running and screaming from the bats flying at us... This can happen anywhere.
But you didn't eat the bats. You didn't keep them in cages next to other live animals, where meat is exposed to the open air in a crowded market that sees thousands of visitors a day.

Big difference.
 

Worgen

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Whatever, just wash your hands.
But you didn't eat the bats. You didn't keep them in cages next to other live animals, where meat is exposed to the open air in a crowded market that sees thousands of visitors a day.

Big difference.
Down here we have bats that live under bridges and people regularly gather to watch them fly out in the summer. Not to mention that actually eating a bat would probably be the safest way to handle one since cooking would kill any diseases. But we use bats for a lot, for instance their crap is really good fertilizer.

Really if you want to know why so many diseases come from bats check this out.