StriderShinryu said:
Therumancer said:
Okay Shamus,
Let me ask you something: getting past the whole issue of the numbers of pirates and so on out there, how much is this actually hurting the game industry at all?
I don't agree with piracy one bit, but this is actually something I would like to know as well. I have a sneaking suspicion that were we able to be shown the real impact of software piracy it might change some peoples opinions.
I don't have any facts, but I would imagine what piracy is really costing is the jobs of the little guy. The sideline coder or the texture artist that, when the numbers are added up, is deemed expendable. The extra $100,000 that was going to be spent on a risky property will no longer be there to invest because the CEO sure as hell isn't going to be taking a paycut because Game X didn't make as much money as expected. Etc. I'd imagine the same thing happens in the music business. Of course the big name artists are still going to be getting funding and making records, but it's the little guys that are really suffering due to just how rampant piracy is. As I said though, I have no facts so the above quoted question is one I would love answered as well.
So would I, but I meant it as being sort of rhetorical since there is enough supporting evidence (as I gave) to show that the game industry is still making massive profits. When companies go out of business it's from bad investments they still would have made, and they would have just stuck more money into the same stupid things if they had it. Laying off employees is just corperate business as usual and few companies are going to say "oh yeah, we just laid off these people to save a few extra bucks", rather they will act like it was nessicary whether it was or not. Unless your going over their books there is no way to tell.
Something to also consider is that while there are exceptions most developers are not producers. Meaning that the people who are gambling money on these projects are effectively hiring the developers to produce/run the product and make money for them. Really piracy doesn't hurt your average developer at all, since they are getting paid by the producers and investors, who are also the people who see the meat of the profits and also endure the losses from piracy. Thus, while there are ALWAYS exceptions, a colorist, line coder, or other employee is unlikely to be laid off specifically because of piracy.
Any way it goes, the producers and such still come up with these massive piles of cash to invest in developing these games, no matter what is claimed about piracy and how much it MIGHT cut into the potential profits. This is because even if only 10% are buying legitimatly your STILL seeing incredible returns on these investments which is why people feed money into video games.
Where I mostly blame developers (and understand all of this is very general, going by various articles on how the industry tends to work) is in the amount of money they are demanding to produce these games. Which continues to go up, as guys like those line coders, colorists, and graphic artists continue to demand more and more money. The returns of course being sufficient that producers provide that money, but in turn try and find ways to have the developers scrape more money out of the consumers to cover what the developers are demanding, and just to increase profits in general.
Again, you look at situations where you have the "big wigs" in game development doing things like taking space tourism vacations, or fighting over paydays worth tens of millions. One guy claiming to be in the industry (in response to other messages I wrote) talked about coders starting at like 75k a year and doubling that money in a few years when they gain seniority... this was refuted by someone else saying it was a bit high, but at the same time it seems quite low to me when I look at some of the budgets like the infamous half billion dollar budget for "Modern Warfare 2" given that when dealing with cash piles that big, renting office space and buying computers as part of the project is trivial, given that everything else goes into paying human resources, it means that the better part of half a billion dollars got split between like a thousand people. How much each person got is more or less irrelevent, that's an insane payroll (and any coders who really got paid a pittence should take a careful look at their bosses, the bottom line is some ridiculous paydays are getting passed on to us consumers).
At any rate, I digress. None of this makes piracy right, but it does mean that piracy no matter how big it is, is not really doing any damage here. At the most what your looking at is some producers and shareholders looking at this giant pile of cash, and then going "gee, that pile of cash could potentially be bigger". Irregardless of when he did it, just the fact that Richard Garriot was able to blast himself into space for fun, renders the game industry saying "woe is us" a complete lulz fest. Yes, some game companies and producers have taken a bath and gone under, but that's how it is in ANY business as well.
Also for the record one of the reasons why I say the 90% piracy rate has to be a lie is because even looking at the lowest human denominator present in the mainstreamers coming into gaming, it's still a basic truth that computers are expensive and people realize this. It's also a basic truth that people tend to be very concerns about things like viruses, spyware, malware, worms, and whatever else. People take care of their big investments. Few people who can afford a coupler worth a couple of grand are going to risk that investment to steal a $50 or $60 game (either on the PC, or burned for a console). To say that 90% of software users are pirates is complete BS propaganda. People aren't that stupid when it comes to the protection of their own possesions, and honestly anyone realizes that your rolling the dice when it comes to piracy, you might succeed a few times without a problem, but inevitably your going to get something from a jokester who wants to mess up your system for fun.
Those massive piracy numbers (which might be accurate in specific, very rare instances in dealing with specific games at specific times) are lulzworthy. Only maintained because (as I explained) there is a loose conspiricy of shared interest throughout the industry, which also goes with their cartel behavior. Everyone in the industry believes they could make more money (rightfully or not) by cracking down on piracy, thus they feel it's in their interests to form a common front to try and convince consumers to tolerate their cash crusades.
