RBG’s dead and Mitch is gonna do it

SilentPony

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I'm sure that the decision whether to nominate or not is going to be decided on some frantic opinion polling that's going on right now for what difference it will make in the presidential and senatorial races.

I am not sure what the procedure is and whether they can, but maybe a lame duck "spite" nomination in November if they lose?
I disagree. They're not going to care how a nomination will effect the presidential race, they want a justice who will decide the race. No matter who is declared winner on election night or week, the other side will sue, and it will go all the way to the supreme court, and a third seat guaranteed to be loyal to Trump will decide in his favor, no question. A vacant supreme court seat isn't an election issue, its the election.
 

Mister Mumbler

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Wow. You actually think that wouldn't hurt him to say he'd just impeach anyone for no reason other than them being appointed by Trump? Who exactly is supposed to be the fascist?
Ummm...maybe McConnell and the Republican party for doing basically that 4 years ago with Obama's nominee.
 

tstorm823

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I am not sure what the procedure is and whether they can, but maybe a lame duck "spite" nomination in November if they lose?
They can spite nominate in November after losing, but if Democrats take the senate and presidency, they'll unilaterally rip that person out of the court. If Republicans keep the senate, it's not going to make a big difference who wins the presidency (this is generally true, I feel, not just on the Supreme Court seat).

Not like it's worth the panic from the left. 4 of the 5 existing conservative justices are swing votes pretty often.
 

Tsun Tzu

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Pretty glad some of you lot aren't in positions of power.

Actually make the Turtle's conniving bullshit look palatable by comparison.
 
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Worgen

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Whatever, just wash your hands.
I'm sure that the decision whether to nominate or not is going to be decided on some frantic opinion polling that's going on right now for what difference it will make in the presidential and senatorial races.

I am not sure what the procedure is and whether they can, but maybe a lame duck "spite" nomination in November if they lose?
When do senators change if they lose their seats? I mean if they change when the president does then trump can do that, if its sooner then it would be harder. Although if republicans want to ram a supreme court justice through, there is literally nothing anyone can do to stop them unless some of them vote against it.
 

Dalisclock

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When do senators change if they lose their seats? I mean if they change when the president does then trump can do that, if its sooner then it would be harder. Although if republicans want to ram a supreme court justice through, there is literally nothing anyone can do to stop them unless some of them vote against it.
Jan 3. The New President is inaugurated(or re-inaugurated) Jan 20th.
 

Worgen

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Whatever, just wash your hands.
Jan 3. The New President is inaugurated(or re-inaugurated) Jan 20th.
Then they have plenty of time to shove someone through even if they lose badly.
 

Revnak

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I feel it needs to be repeated that impeaching a Justice requires a senatorial super majority. That absolutely will not happen in 2020. No way. Utterly impossible. There’s also no filibuster on Judicial nominees so if it gets brought to the floor they can just rush it through. They could easily spite nominate even. There’s basically nothing that can stop Mitch McConnell from doing this if he wants to, at least nothing in the realm of electoral politics. Either load the courts or start yourself a revolution.
 

Asita

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I'm not gonna try and predict the man. I'm sure he'll be taking someone's instructions, but we'll see if it's someone like Mitch pushing him to do it or someone smart in his campaign telling him not to. Acting like a patient adult while everyone else freaks out would be A+ undermining of the most common Trump criticisms.
Certainly doesn't seem like his first instinct considering that he just tweeted that they should rush it through.

 
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Avnger

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I feel it needs to be repeated that impeaching a Justice requires a senatorial super majority. That absolutely will not happen in 2020. No way. Utterly impossible. There’s also no filibuster on Judicial nominees so if it gets brought to the floor they can just rush it through. They could easily spite nominate even. There’s basically nothing that can stop Mitch McConnell from doing this if he wants to, at least nothing in the realm of electoral politics. Either load the courts or start yourself a revolution.
Once you start loading the courts, where does it stop? Democrats expand it to 15 and add a bunch of progressive justices. 8 years later, Republicans expand it to 99 and fill it with their cronies. That cat doesn't ever go back in its bag.
 
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Revnak

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Once you start loading the courts, where does it stop? Democrats expand it to 15 and add a bunch of progressive justices. 8 years later, Republicans expand it to 99 and fill it with their cronies. That cat doesn't ever go back in its bag.
It certainly does not, but I’ve little respect for the Supreme Court to begin with given it is a purely undemocratic institution. These are the realistic options. Which is to say, every option available is terrible and we are teetering on the brink and have been for at least a decade.
 

meiam

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Once you start loading the courts, where does it stop? Democrats expand it to 15 and add a bunch of progressive justices. 8 years later, Republicans expand it to 99 and fill it with their cronies. That cat doesn't ever go back in its bag.
You load it but you use the power that give you to make future loading impossible. It'd be stupid no to do it anyway, right now the party that consistently get the minority vote has all the power because they constantly ignore precedent and un written rule. The Dem can take the high road all they want, but that just mean the Rep will keep in power even after losing elections and popular vote.
 

SilentPony

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You load it but you use the power that give you to make future loading impossible. It'd be stupid no to do it anyway, right now the party that consistently get the minority vote has all the power because they constantly ignore precedent and un written rule. The Dem can take the high road all they want, but that just mean the Rep will keep in power even after losing elections and popular vote.
I think this vacancy sets the stage for this being the last presidential election in America. Trump will stack the court with a loyalist, sue to stop the election, win, declare himself the president, ask for a 3rd term, get it, ask for a 4th, get it, appoint his own replacement, etc...

This is not an "Oh shucks" moment. This is a "Well there goes the Democracy" moment.
 

Revnak

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I think this vacancy sets the stage for this being the last presidential election in America. Trump will stack the court with a loyalist, sue to stop the election, win, declare himself the president, ask for a 3rd term, get it, ask for a 4th, get it, appoint his own replacement, etc...

This is not an "Oh shucks" moment. This is a "Well there goes the Democracy" moment.
I doubt Trump will live that long but the rest is plausible.
 

gorfias

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Hindsight is obviously 2020 but what's happened is a 79 year old choosing not to quit her day job in 2012 has directly led to a scenario where the rights of women and minorities in the US can be easily thrown under a bus. Hell, she was already past the US retirement age in 2008.
It is extremely odd that she did not retire in 2012 or so.
I am reading that the idea of court packing is making a comeback.


I do wonder if Mitch can rush in another Judge in time before November or not. I think he will try.

I think this vacancy sets the stage for this being the last presidential election in America. Trump will stack the court with a loyalist, sue to stop the election, win, declare himself the president, ask for a 3rd term, get it, ask for a 4th, get it, appoint his own replacement, etc...

This is not an "Oh shucks" moment. This is a "Well there goes the Democracy" moment.
I think we'll see the "red mirage" : Trump will win on election night. If he gets his pick, he will block new vote counting after election night, the court will back him (they may do so without another pick) and that will be that. I cannot believe he'd try to serve a 3rd term even if young enough to do so.

One unintended thing that may happen?

I think the Democratic base is despondent and would not otherwise vote for Biden. This may change things, motivating the left to get out the vote. If Biden wins election night, don't expect Trump to demand we keep counting: I think that would only make matters worse for him.

Power move: Trump should decline to nominate a replacement before the election.
If he does, again, he's just energized the Left that I think is currently despondent.
It might energize the right but not to the same extent as we're already willing to crawl over broken glass to vote Trump.
 
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SilentPony

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Trump never wanted to be president, not really. Its a low paying government job that's long hours and requires a lot of reading. He hates that shit.
What he wants is power. He wants to be the most powerful man in the room. And the only way for him to continue to be the most powerful man is to continue being president.
When the war starts, and it will, I wouldn't put it past him to ask Russia to send in troops to help 'restore order'. I mean fuck Barr has already said he intends to use the Insurrection Act to deploy troops to stomp down on any election protests.
 

gorfias

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Trump never wanted to be president, not really. Its a low paying government job that's long hours and requires a lot of reading. He hates that shit.
What he wants is power. He wants to be the most powerful man in the room. And the only way for him to continue to be the most powerful man is to continue being president.
When the war starts, and it will, I wouldn't put it past him to ask Russia to send in troops to help 'restore order'. I mean fuck Barr has already said he intends to use the Insurrection Act to deploy troops to stomp down on any election protests.
Link about Barr? I have heard there has been review of the Insurrection Act and it might be appropriate. We'll see.
I've heard the idea that Trump didn't want to be President before.

An amusing joke video...



But...




Steve Bannon says he made Trump jump through hoops in order to convince him that Trump was for real and only signed on once he thought Trump in earnest. I buy that.
We've heard apocalyptic threats of what Trump would do once in office. I'd write, he hasn't even impressed me in what I would have wanted him doing. The idea that he'd start a war to stay in office no matter what seems unlikely to me. If anything, I worry that he will win on election night, the left will want to keep counting new votes until they can flip the election results to Biden, Trump will sue to stop the counting of new votes, his USSC will side with him and the Left won't be able to handle it.
 
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SilentPony

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We've heard apocalyptic threats of what Trump would do once in office. I'd write, he hasn't even impressed me in what I would have wanted him doing. The idea that he'd start a war to stay in office no matter what seems unlikely to me. If anything, I worry that he will win on election night, the left will want to keep counting new votes until they can flip the election results to Biden, Trump will sue to stop the counting of new votes, his USSC will side with him and the Left won't be able to handle it.
What you're talking about is a coup. You're taking about the President of the United States shutting down the election and the Supreme Court backing him. And you're worried the Left with freak out? THEY SHOULD!
Think it through - if Trump knows the USSC will side with him why does he even need to wait for election day? Why does he even need more than one vote? What's stopping Trump from voting for himself, deciding that's enough votes, and shutting the election down then and there? Nothing, if the Supreme Court is with him.
And at that point Trump is an Emperor, and we'll have a civil war. And we should. The Left won't 'over-react' if Trump shuts down the election, they'll react exactly the way they should when someone threatens the democracy and seizes control of government.
 

gorfias

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What you're talking about is a coup. You're taking about the President of the United States shutting down the election and the Supreme Court backing him. And you're worried the Left with freak out? THEY SHOULD!
Think it through - if Trump knows the USSC will side with him why does he even need to wait for election day? Why does he even need more than one vote? What's stopping Trump from voting for himself, deciding that's enough votes, and shutting the election down then and there? Nothing, if the Supreme Court is with him.
And at that point Trump is an Emperor, and we'll have a civil war. And we should. The Left won't 'over-react' if Trump shuts down the election, they'll react exactly the way they should when someone threatens the democracy and seizes control of government.
Why not just do away with the election?
I hope anyone who would be POTUS must have the color of legitimacy with the people in order to sustain power.
If Trump wins on election night, there are people that will be fine with that. Continued counting of new votes will be seen by a substantial amount of the electorate to be simply an effort to steal the election. Objection to stopping the counting will be seen by them (us) to be a coup.
There is an option for the Left, mentioned, I think, in an article in the Atlantic that predicts violence with a Trump win: Biden needs to win on election night. No further counting necessary.

And I think Biden's despondent base just may be energized by the passing of RBG. The stakes are very high now. This may actually happen now.

They may try to R&R her before the election but I think the Left can delay through procedures long enough that a replacement will not be in place before the next POTUS in place.